The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 20

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies

Saturday, December 20, 2025 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

WAS 3–1@MEM 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: WAS 15 percent, MEM 85 percent. WAS Wizards 15% proj. 108 · final 130 MEM Grizzlies · home 85% proj. 123 · final 122
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
WAS Washington Wizards 108 130 +22
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) 123 122 −1

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 85% win probability, projected margin 15.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputWASMEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12641524
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +329
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −14.4−0.8
Games played this season 2527
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.2116.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.9111.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 26.037.1
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1264MEM1524

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1264

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1234 → started this one at 1301
  2. First 15 games: −76.4
  3. Last 10 games: +40.0
  • L@CHI120–121−0.8
  • WATL132–113+31.6
  • L@IND86–119−7.4
  • WMIL129–126+8.8
  • L@PHI102–121−6.5
  • LBOS101–146−8.5
  • LATL116–131−6.2
  • LCLE126–130−1.8
  • W@IND108–89+34.2
  • L@SAS94–119−3.4

MEM1524

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1519
  2. First 17 games: −49.6
  3. Last 10 games: +54.0
  • LDEN115–125−6.6
  • W@NOP133–128+5.1
  • W@LAC112–107+9.4
  • W@SAC115–107+9.0
  • L@SAS119–126−5.3
  • WLAC107–98+7.5
  • WPOR119–96+14.4
  • LUTA126–130−11.4
  • W@LAC121–103+18.3
  • W@MIN116–110+13.6
Season scoring marginWAS−14.4MEM−0.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−14.4

Scores 112.0, allows 126.4 over 25 games: −14.4 a game.

MEM−0.8

Scores 114.4, allows 115.2 over 27 games: −0.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS110.2MEM116.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

WAS110.2scored, −4.7 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.6%−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.4%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.221−0.8
Everything else−1.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 7 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MEM116.4scored, +1.6 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.2%54.6%+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.4%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.221−0.9
Everything else+1.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 7 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10WAS120.9MEM111.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

WAS120.9allowed, +6.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%54.6%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.0%12.4%−3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.221+1.2
Everything else−2.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 7 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

MEM111.8allowed, −3.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.6%+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.4%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)n/a26.2%–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1740.221+1.4
Everything else−0.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 7 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 100.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 100.8 and MEM 100.4 → average 100.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.9)

Rotation points missingWAS26.0MEM37.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS26.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Corey Kispert19.530.72
Bilal Coulibaly6.528.36

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-20 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

MEM37.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ja Morant16.523.12
Zach Edey14.426.17
Vince Williams Jr.6.223.010

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-20 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysMEM3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Dec 18 against SAS.

MEM3days

Last played Dec 17 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 18@SAS94–11938-949-369-1412–94.0120.299.5
Dec 14@IND108–8941-8910-2816-2611–118.798.990.5
Dec 12CLE126–13042-8616-4426-3216–120.0125.0104.5
Dec 6ATL116–13141-8017-3817-1920–114.9128.4101.5
Dec 4BOS101–14635-8410-3121-2518–102.0150.598.0
Dec 2@PHI102–12135-889-3623-3215–98.1118.6103.0
Dec 1MIL129–12653-10213-3610-1510–126.5124.8101.5
Nov 28@IND86–11933-847-3213-20171185.1119.0100.5
Nov 25ATL132–11348-8419-3817-26126128.2109.7103.0
Nov 22@CHI120–12144-9616-3616-201515114.3114.2105.5

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 17@MIN116–11042-9611-3421-2518–108.4102.8107.0
Dec 15@LAC121–10345-8616-3915-1711–131.5113.291.5
Dec 12UTA126–13046-9919-4115-2110–117.8122.6106.5
Dec 7POR119–9640-8910-3529-3922–114.491.4104.5
Dec 5LAC107–9842-7810-2813-1815–109.2100.098.0
Dec 2@SAS119–12645-909-2620-2415–119.0127.399.5
Nov 30@SAC115–10745-869-2416-2223–112.7104.9102.0
Nov 28@LAC112–10739-8817-4017-221515113.1109.298.5
Nov 26@NOP133–12852-9717-3712-141611120.9117.499.2
Nov 24DEN115–12543-9316-4713-151111117.3128.997.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
15%
pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner
the forecast favored MEM
23 pts
margin miss
forecast +15, actual −8 for MEM
8th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
140th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statWASMEM
Final score130122
Field goals47–99 · 47.5%45–100 · 45.0%
Three-pointers17–44 · 38.6%16–44 · 36.4%
Free throws19–26 · 73.1%16–22 · 72.7%
Rebounds5448
Assists3231
Turnovers1314
Steals57
Blocks33

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)+15−8−23
Total points231252+21
WAS points108130+22
MEM points123122−1

Recent form before this game

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Dec 18 at SAS L 94–119
Dec 14 at IND W 108–89
Dec 12 vs CLE L 126–130
Dec 6 vs ATL L 116–131
Dec 4 vs BOS L 101–146

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Dec 17 at MIN W 116–110
Dec 15 at LAC W 121–103
Dec 12 vs UTA L 126–130
Dec 7 vs POR W 119–96
Dec 5 vs LAC W 107–98

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 8 2024-25 MEM at WAS MEM 140 – 112 WAS
Nov 8 2024-25 WAS at MEM WAS 104 – 128 MEM
Mar 12 2023-24 WAS at MEM WAS 97 – 109 MEM
Oct 28 2023-24 MEM at WAS MEM 106 – 113 WAS
Nov 13 2022-23 MEM at WAS MEM 92 – 102 WAS