The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 25

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls

Monday, March 25, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

WAS 2–1@CHI 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: WAS 18 percent, CHI 82 percent. WAS Wizards 18% proj. 110 · final 107 CHI Bulls · home 82% proj. 126 · final 105
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
WAS Washington Wizards 110 107 −3
CHI Chicago Bulls (home) 126 105 −21

Forecast: Chicago Bulls to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 16.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputWASCHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12851467
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +252
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −9.9−1.8
Games played this season 7171
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.8117.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 117.4121.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 43.20.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1285CHI1467

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1285

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1436 → started this one at 1452
  2. First 61 games: −178.1
  3. Last 10 games: +10.4
  • LORL109–119−4.4
  • WCHA112–100+10.2
  • W@MIA110–108+11.9
  • L@MEM97–109−6.9
  • L@HOU119–135−4.1
  • L@CHI98–127−6.5
  • LBOS104–130−2.6
  • LHOU114–137−9.1
  • WSAC109–102+16.5
  • WTOR112–109+5.4

CHI1467

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1541 → started this one at 1530
  2. First 61 games: −39.5
  3. Last 10 games: −24.5
  • W@UTA119–117+5.2
  • W@GSW125–122+9.5
  • L@LAC102–112−5.0
  • LDAL92–127−29.0
  • W@IND132–129+9.0
  • LLAC111–126−12.0
  • WWAS127–98+6.5
  • WPOR110–107+2.2
  • L@HOU117–127−6.8
  • LBOS113–124−4.1
Season scoring marginWAS−9.9CHI−1.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−9.9

Scores 113.7, allows 123.7 over 71 games: −9.9 a game.

CHI−1.8

Scores 112.1, allows 113.9 over 71 games: −1.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS108.8CHI117.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

WAS108.8scored, −6.1 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.8%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%11.5%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.5%24.2%−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1720.196−0.7
Everything else+0.7

CHI117.0scored, +2.2 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.7%54.8%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%11.5%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.0%24.2%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1880.196−0.2
Everything else+0.2
Defensive rating, last 10WAS117.4CHI121.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.8).

WAS117.4allowed, +2.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.2%54.8%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%11.5%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.1%24.2%−2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.196−0.5
Everything else+0.9

CHI121.5allowed, +6.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.8%−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.1%11.5%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%24.2%−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1780.196+0.5
Everything else−1.3
Pace, last 10average 98.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 99.9 and CHI 97.1 → average 98.5 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.3)

Rotation points missingWAS43.2CHI0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS43.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kyle Kuzma23.834.68
Bilal Coulibaly10.831.46
Tyus Jones8.630.55

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-25 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysCHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Mar 23 against TOR.

CHI2days

Last played Mar 23 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 23TOR112–10944-9211-3513-19177112.0106.9101.0
Mar 21SAC109–10241-8110-2517-23193110.1103.099.0
Mar 19HOU114–13742-9815-3915-201017116.3137.099.0
Mar 17BOS104–13041-8910-3412-141610104.0132.799.0
Mar 16@CHI98–12736-8413-3213-2215997.0125.7101.0
Mar 14@HOU119–13546-9312-3815-19137110.2123.9108.5
Mar 12@MEM97–10937-8211-3612-1613499.0111.298.0
Mar 10@MIA110–10839-8116-3916-22156111.1110.298.5
Mar 8CHA112–10043-876-3320-23115113.1101.099.0
Mar 6ORL109–11940-8812-3817-2094114.7122.796.0

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 23BOS113–12447-829-2410-1173125.6137.890.0
Mar 21@HOU117–12742-9312-3121-251111114.7124.5102.0
Mar 18POR110–10741-9311-3317-21913113.4110.397.0
Mar 16WAS127–9849-858-2421-291512125.797.0101.0
Mar 14LAC111–12641-8616-3513-161311119.4138.592.0
Mar 13@IND132–12948-9210-2826-32117118.9116.2100.5
Mar 11DAL92–12735-897-3415-22131097.9133.794.5
Mar 9@LAC102–11237-8613-3515-19129107.4119.194.5
Mar 7@GSW125–12246-8716-3617-23147121.4117.3103.5
Mar 6@UTA119–11745-9017-3912-1577125.3120.696.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
18%
pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner
the forecast favored CHI
18 pts
margin miss
forecast +16, actual −2 for CHI
2nd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
262nd
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.70 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statWASCHI
Final score107105
Field goals39–97 · 40.2%36–87 · 41.4%
Three-pointers14–49 · 28.6%10–35 · 28.6%
Free throws15–18 · 83.3%23–28 · 82.1%
Rebounds5246
Assists3227
Turnovers1311
Steals89
Blocks58

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)+16−2−18
Total points236212−24
WAS points110107−3
CHI points126105−21

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
WAS31222925–107
CHI17323323–105

Recent form before this game

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Mar 23 vs TOR W 112–109
Mar 21 vs SAC W 109–102
Mar 19 vs HOU L 114–137
Mar 17 vs BOS L 104–130
Mar 16 at CHI L 98–127

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Mar 23 vs BOS L 113–124
Mar 21 at HOU L 117–127
Mar 18 vs POR W 110–107
Mar 16 vs WAS W 127–98
Mar 14 vs LAC L 111–126

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 16 2023-24 WAS at CHI WAS 98 – 127 CHI
Feb 26 2022-23 WAS at CHI WAS 82 – 102 CHI
Jan 11 2022-23 CHI at WAS CHI 97 – 100 WAS
Dec 7 2022-23 WAS at CHI WAS 111 – 115 CHI
Oct 21 2022-23 CHI at WAS CHI 100 – 102 WAS