The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 4

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards

Friday, November 4, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

BKN 0–0@WAS 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BKN 45 percent, WAS 55 percent. BKN Nets 45% proj. 110 · final 128 WAS Wizards · home 55% proj. 112 · final 86
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BKN Brooklyn Nets 110 128 +18
WAS Washington Wizards (home) 112 86 −26

Forecast: Washington Wizards to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBKNWAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14611447
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +56
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −2.4−2.3
Games played this season 88
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.3109.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.8114.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 33.06.5
Rest days 32
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1461WAS1447

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1461

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1518
  2. This season's 8 games: −57.2
  • LNOP108–130−22.3
  • WTOR109–105+6.0
  • L@MEM124–134−5.5
  • L@MIL99–110−5.7
  • LDAL125–129−5.4
  • LIND116–125−16.0
  • WIND116–109+4.9
  • LCHI99–108−13.2

WAS1447

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
  2. This season's 8 games: +9.5
  • W@IND114–107+9.3
  • WCHI102–100+3.9
  • L@CLE107–117−5.8
  • WDET120–99+10.1
  • LIND117–127−16.5
  • L@BOS94–112−4.8
  • LPHI111–118−6.4
  • W@PHI121–111+19.7
Season scoring marginBKN−2.4WAS−2.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−2.4

Scores 112.0, allows 118.8 over 8 games: −6.8 a game.

40% this season (−6.8) + 60% last season (+0.5) = −2.4

WAS−2.3

Scores 110.8, allows 111.4 over 8 games: −0.6 a game.

40% this season (−0.6) + 60% last season (−3.4) = −2.3

Offensive rating, last 10BKN112.3WAS109.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.6).

BKN112.3scored, +0.7 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%53.3%+3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.3%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%23.9%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2330.208+0.7
Everything else−1.1

WAS109.4scored, −2.2 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%53.3%+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.3%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.7%23.9%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.208−0.0
Everything else−1.4
Defensive rating, last 10BKN118.8WAS114.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.6).

BKN118.8allowed, +7.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.3%53.3%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.3%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.2%23.9%−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2130.208−0.1
Everything else−1.4

WAS114.0allowed, +2.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%53.3%−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.3%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.5%23.9%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.208−0.3
Everything else−0.5
Pace, last 10average 98.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BKN 98.0 and WAS 98.2 → average 98.1 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.4)

Rotation points missingBKN33.0WAS6.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN33.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kyrie Irving26.938.78
Ben Simmons6.231.86

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-04 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

WAS6.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Delon Wright6.522.74

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-04 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestBKN3 daysWAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN3days

Last played Nov 1 against CHI.

WAS2days

Last played Nov 2 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1CHI99–10836-7412-3215-19184104.2112.595.5
Oct 31IND116–10943-8011-3019-20196110.5104.8104.5
Oct 29IND116–12541-8214-3920-2696120.8128.996.5
Oct 27DAL125–12943-9312-3527-301313114.7121.797.4
Oct 26@MIL99–11034-867-2724-3014796.1105.8103.5
Oct 24@MEM124–13447-879-2921-26119126.5136.798.0
Oct 21TOR109–10538-8013-3520-291313114.7109.495.5
Oct 19NOP108–13040-8910-3318-24169105.9127.5102.0
Apr 25BOS112–11641-8113-3517-29108116.7120.896.0
Apr 23BOS103–10939-7712-2913-161812113.2119.891.0

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 2@PHI121–11145-785-2126-3277128.7118.194.0
Oct 31PHI111–11838-8110-2525-26159112.1119.299.0
Oct 30@BOS94–11238-987-3211-1681596.9115.597.0
Oct 28IND117–12741-8612-3023-28139115.8125.7101.0
Oct 25DET120–9944-8510-3322-26119121.2100.099.0
Oct 23@CLE107–11743-8712-289-15184105.9113.692.4
Oct 21CHI102–10041-8010-2610-11165103.0103.198.0
Oct 19@IND114–10742-9211-3119-241614108.6102.9104.5
Apr 10@CHA108–12442-948-2316-261017108.0125.399.5
Apr 8NYK92–11435-699-2813-1722293.9116.398.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
45%
pregame chance the forecast gave BKN, the winner
the forecast favored WAS
44 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual −42 for WAS
343rd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
4th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 0.80 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBKNWAS
Final score12886
Field goals50–90 · 55.6%30–83 · 36.1%
Three-pointers14–28 · 50.0%8–34 · 23.5%
Free throws14–14 · 100.0%18–22 · 81.8%
Rebounds4839
Assists3218
Turnovers713
Steals84
Blocks73

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)+2−42−44
Total points222214−8
BKN points110128+18
WAS points11286−26

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 vs CHI L 99–108
Oct 31 vs IND W 116–109
Oct 29 vs IND L 116–125
Oct 27 vs DAL L 125–129
Oct 26 at MIL L 99–110

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Nov 2 at PHI W 121–111
Oct 31 vs PHI L 111–118
Oct 30 at BOS L 94–112
Oct 28 vs IND L 117–127
Oct 25 vs DET W 120–99

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 17 2021-22 WAS at BKN WAS 117 – 103 BKN
Feb 10 2021-22 BKN at WAS BKN 112 – 113 WAS
Jan 19 2021-22 BKN at WAS BKN 119 – 118 WAS
Oct 25 2021-22 WAS at BKN WAS 90 – 104 BKN