2026-27 · Regular Season · Final
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET
ATL 4–4@WAS 4–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | 110 | 120 | +10 |
| WAS Washington Wizards (home) | 114 | 105 | −9 |
Forecast: Washington Wizards to win, 63% win probability, projected margin 4.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtNo saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.
The result against the forecast
2026-27 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | ATL | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 120 | 105 |
| Field goals | 45–101 · 44.6% | 42–88 · 47.7% |
| Three-pointers | 19–49 · 38.8% | 6–26 · 23.1% |
| Free throws | 11–14 · 78.6% | 15–21 · 71.4% |
| Rebounds | 57 | 41 |
| Assists | 34 | 25 |
| Turnovers | 15 | 12 |
| Steals | 9 | 8 |
| Blocks | 2 | 9 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Washington Wizards
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (WAS) | +4 | −15 | −19 |
| Total points | 224 | 225 | +1 |
| ATL points | 110 | 120 | +10 |
| WAS points | 114 | 105 | −9 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-04 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
Atlanta Hawks
- Out Henri Veesaar · Right ACLTear
- Out Jock Landale · Left Hip Strain
- Out Mouhamed Gueye · Left Foot Fracture
- Questionable Jalen Johnson · Left Ankle Sprain
Washington Wizards
- Out Jamir Watkins
- Out Justin Champagnie · Right Foot Surgery
- Out Reece Beekman · Right ACJoint Injury
- Out Tristan Vukcevic · Left Hip Impingement
- Questionable Alex Sarr · Left Knee Soreness
- Questionable Bilal Coulibaly · Illness
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 26 2025-26 | WAS at ATL | WAS 96 – 126 ATL |
| Feb 24 2025-26 | WAS at ATL | WAS 98 – 119 ATL |
| Dec 6 2025-26 | ATL at WAS | ATL 131 – 116 WAS |
| Nov 25 2025-26 | ATL at WAS | ATL 113 – 132 WAS |
| Feb 8 2024-25 | ATL at WAS | ATL 125 – 111 WAS |