The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

WAS 2–2@CLE 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: WAS 26 percent, CLE 74 percent. WAS Wizards 26% proj. 112 · final 111 CLE Cavaliers · home 74% proj. 121 · final 121
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
WAS Washington Wizards 112 111 −1
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) 121 121 ±0

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CLE

  • Home court+2.1 CLEWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.0 CLEElo CLE 1571, WAS 1297; season margin CLE +2.3, WAS −9.6.
  • Recent form+0.6 CLELast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CLE scores 107.2 and allows 114.2; WAS scores 110.8 and allows 120.5.
  • Player availability+0.4 CLEWAS without Justin Champagnie (7 ppg).

Together: CLE by 9, a 74% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CLE is 2–1, losing by 1 a game on average (scoring 119, allowing 120). Last season they were a +3 team, which still counts for 85% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −4, getting to the line +1.5. Their defense is close to league average on all four factors.

WAS is 2–2, about even on points (scoring 114, allowing 114). Last season they were a −12 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 20% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.8, ball security −1.2. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −2.7. Justin Champagnie (7 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CLE; left favors WAS.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +6.0, Recent form +0.6, Player availability +0.4, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +9.4 for CLE. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +6.0 Recent form +0.6 Player availability +0.4 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +9.4
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +9.4. The 74% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputWASCLEEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12971571 +0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +344 +5.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −9.6+2.3 +1.4
Games played this season 43 −1.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.8107.2 −1.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.5114.2 +1.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.2 +0.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.30.0 +0.4
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCLE ptsWAS ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court344.4+2.23−2.89+5.11
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)120.5+1.57+0.12+1.45
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)107.2−2.14−0.70−1.44
Season scoring margin (away)-9.6+0.32−0.66+0.97
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.73−0.16+0.90
Games played (away)4.0+0.08+0.94−0.86
Rotation points missing (away)7.3−0.02+0.49−0.51
Season scoring margin (home)2.3+0.30−0.11+0.41
Elo rating (away)1297.1+0.24−0.15+0.39
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)114.2+0.09−0.22+0.31
Elo rating (home)1571.4+0.07−0.19+0.26
Games played (home)3.0+0.22+0.46−0.23
Combined pace, last 10101.2+3.00+2.77+0.23
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.02+0.22
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.8−0.14−0.21+0.07
Rest days (away)2.0−0.00+0.02−0.02
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (home)2.0+0.00+0.02−0.01
Series pressure0.0+0.02+0.01+0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1297CLE15715.8 pts toward CLE

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1297

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
  2. This season's 4 games: +17.3
  • WMIL128–116+13.1
  • LTOR102–112−4.6
  • W@CHI124–120+10.4
  • L@CHA103–110−1.6

CLE1571

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
  2. This season's 3 games: −2.3
  • L@PHI106–114−7.9
  • WBKN125–121+1.3
  • WMIN127–125+4.3
Season scoring marginWAS−9.6CLE+2.30.3 pts toward CLE

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−9.6

Scores 114.2, allows 114.5 over 4 games: −0.3 a game.

20% this season (−0.3) + 80% last season (−12.0) = −9.6

CLE+2.3

Scores 119.3, allows 120.0 over 3 games: −0.7 a game.

15% this season (−0.7) + 85% last season (+2.8) = +2.3

Offensive rating, last 10WAS110.8CLE107.21.4 pts toward WAS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

WAS110.8scored, −3.8 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.5%−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.5%26.1%−2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.210+0.3
Everything else+1.9

CLE107.2scored, −7.4 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%54.5%−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)14.8%12.2%−3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.8%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2610.210+1.5
Everything else−1.2
Defensive rating, last 10WAS120.5CLE114.21.8 pts toward CLE

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

WAS120.5allowed, +5.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%54.5%−3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.1%26.1%−2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210−0.5
Everything else+0.6

CLE114.2allowed, −0.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%54.5%+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.1%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.210+0.2
Everything else+0.6
Pace, last 10average 101.20.2 pts toward CLE

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 103.7 and CLE 98.7 → average 101.2 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingWAS7.3CLE0.00.4 pts toward CLE

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS7.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Justin Champagnie7.218.34

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysCLE2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Oct 26 against CHA.

CLE2days

Last played Oct 26 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@CHA103–11041-859-2812-151410108.4114.695.5
Oct 24@CHI124–12045-9410-3324-281311118.1113.2105.5
Oct 23TOR102–11230-7912-3730-3520695.3104.7107.0
Oct 21MIL128–11645-866-2832-411112123.1112.6103.5
Apr 12@CLE117–13042-9018-4115-19125117.0128.7100.5
Apr 10MIA117–14046-9214-3111-14134113.6135.9103.0
Apr 9CHI108–11938-9610-3822-271710100.9111.2107.0
Apr 7CHI98–12937-8611-3813-2121389.9119.4108.5
Apr 5@BKN115–12144-799-2518-28204116.2122.299.0
Apr 4@MIA136–15250-10617-4019-24913125.9142.1107.5

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26MIN127–12546-10218-4517-231213112.4112.6101.4
Oct 24BKN125–12140-7916-3829-38239116.8113.1107.0
Oct 22@PHI106–11439-877-2921-28211097.2103.6109.5
May 25NYK93–13032-7711-4018-2222691.2127.5102.0
May 23NYK108–12142-8412-4112-19179110.2124.797.5
May 21@NYK93–10931-809-3522-32813104.5122.589.0
May 19@NYK104–11536-9016-5016-23191196.3105.598.3
May 17@DET125–9443-8511-3428-441114125.094.0100.0
May 15DET94–11530-7712-3522-302016100.0122.394.0
May 13@DET117–11336-8014-3531-381613118.2116.588.8

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
74%
pregame chance the forecast gave CLE, the winner
CLE was the forecast favorite
1 pts
margin miss
forecast +9, actual +10 for CLE
117th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
133rd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.30 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statWASCLE
Final score111121
Field goals44–83 · 53.0%43–91 · 47.3%
Three-pointers8–32 · 25.0%14–38 · 36.8%
Free throws15–17 · 88.2%21–22 · 95.5%
Rebounds2747
Assists3126
Turnovers1013
Steals77
Blocks64

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)+9+10+1
Total points233232−1
WAS points112111−1
CLE points121121±0

Recent form before this game

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at CHA L 103–110
Oct 24 at CHI W 124–120
Oct 23 vs TOR L 102–112
Oct 21 vs MIL W 128–116
Apr 12 at CLE L 117–130

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs MIN W 127–125
Oct 24 vs BKN W 125–121
Oct 22 at PHI L 106–114
May 25 vs NYK L 93–130
May 23 vs NYK L 108–121

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 12 2025-26 WAS at CLE WAS 117 – 130 CLE
Feb 11 2025-26 WAS at CLE WAS 113 – 138 CLE
Dec 12 2025-26 CLE at WAS CLE 130 – 126 WAS
Nov 7 2025-26 CLE at WAS CLE 148 – 115 WAS
Feb 7 2024-25 CLE at WAS CLE 134 – 124 WAS