2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets

Wednesday, February 5, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

WAS 0–1@BKN 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	102	119	+17
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home)	110	102	−8

Forecast: Brooklyn Nets to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	BKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1237	1377
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+210
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−13.7	−6.7
Games played this season	50	50
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	101.0	101.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.5	112.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	26.9	14.9
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1237BKN1377

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1237

Ended last season at 1263 → started this one at 1322
First 40 games: −81.9
Last 10 games: −3.4

L@GSW114–122−1.9
L@SAC100–123−2.6
L@LAL88–111−3.9
L@LAC93–110−2.3
L@PHX109–119−2.0
L@DAL108–130−2.5
LTOR82–106−11.6
LLAL96–134−9.0
W@MIN105–103+15.0
W@CHA124–114+17.4

BKN1377

Ended last season at 1412 → started this one at 1434
First 40 games: −70.9
Last 10 games: +14.1

L@LAC67–126−11.8
L@LAL101–102−1.6
L@OKC101–127−1.7
LNYK95–99−3.1
LPHX84–108−13.9
LMIA97–106−7.5
LSAC96–110−6.6
W@CHA104–83+23.7
W@HOU110–98+28.8
WHOU99–97+7.8

Season scoring marginWAS−13.7BKN−6.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−13.7

Scores 107.5, allows 121.2 over 50 games: −13.7 a game.

BKN−6.7

Scores 105.4, allows 112.1 over 50 games: −6.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS101.0BKN101.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.0).

WAS101.0scored, −12.0 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	47.1%	54.2%	−10.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.3%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.7%	24.9%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.193	0.193	±0.0
Everything else			+0.5

BKN101.6scored, −11.4 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	47.5%	54.2%	−10.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.3%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.8%	24.9%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.193	−0.1
Everything else			−0.8

Defensive rating, last 10WAS116.5BKN112.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.0).

WAS116.5allowed, +3.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	54.2%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.3%	−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.4%	24.9%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.196	0.193	−0.1
Everything else			−0.6

BKN112.1allowed, −0.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.2%	+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.3%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.8%	24.9%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.185	0.193	+0.2
Everything else			−0.4

Pace, last 10average 97.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 100.8 and BKN 94.0 → average 97.4 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingWAS26.9BKN14.9

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS26.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kyle Kuzma	17.6	29.4	10
Alex Sarr	9.3	24.9	6

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-05 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

BKN14.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Noah Clowney	8.6	26.8	7
Trendon Watford	6.3	17.4	3

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysBKN1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Feb 3 against CHA.

BKN1day, back-to-back

Last played Feb 4 against HOU.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 3	@CHA	124–114	44-99	17-51	19-23	10	14	120.4	112.9	102.0
Feb 1	@MIN	105–103	38-83	15-33	14-17	16	4	105.0	103.0	100.0
Jan 30	LAL	96–134	29-91	10-44	28-34	13	11	93.2	132.7	102.0
Jan 29	TOR	82–106	28-72	5-30	21-29	25	7	85.4	108.2	97.0
Jan 27	@DAL	108–130	42-101	11-37	13-17	11	10	109.1	132.7	98.5
Jan 25	@PHX	109–119	42-90	18-41	7-9	8	5	110.1	120.2	99.0
Jan 23	@LAC	93–110	32-94	11-46	18-21	15	13	89.4	105.8	104.0
Jan 21	@LAL	88–111	34-95	11-43	9-13	11	9	87.1	112.1	100.0
Jan 19	@SAC	100–123	32-89	10-42	26-32	16	9	92.6	113.9	108.0
Jan 18	@GSW	114–122	38-86	22-45	16-23	13	11	117.5	123.2	98.0

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 4	HOU	99–97	38-82	10-27	13-17	13	8	108.8	107.8	90.5
Feb 1	@HOU	110–98	43-87	10-27	14-21	10	10	118.3	106.5	92.5
Jan 29	@CHA	104–83	39-80	10-32	16-20	8	6	114.3	92.2	90.5
Jan 27	SAC	96–110	30-82	10-36	26-30	14	15	103.2	117.0	93.5
Jan 25	MIA	97–106	30-80	14-40	23-26	14	8	99.0	108.2	98.0
Jan 22	PHX	84–108	34-91	7-36	9-14	16	15	88.4	113.7	95.0
Jan 21	NYK	95–99	32-86	12-40	19-25	16	13	100.0	104.2	95.0
Jan 19	@OKC	101–127	37-87	12-43	15-19	13	12	103.1	129.6	98.0
Jan 17	@LAL	101–102	37-82	17-38	10-13	17	11	111.0	112.1	91.0
Jan 15	@LAC	67–126	25-83	5-28	12-22	20	15	69.8	129.9	96.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

29%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored BKN

25 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −17 for BKN

57th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

97th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.24 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	BKN
Final score	119	102
Field goals	44–81 · 54.3%	36–83 · 43.4%
Three-pointers	20–43 · 46.5%	13–38 · 34.2%
Free throws	11–14 · 78.6%	17–23 · 73.9%
Rebounds	40	37
Assists	40	26
Turnovers	14	10
Steals	6	7
Blocks	3	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)	+8	−17	−25
Total points	212	221	+9
WAS points	102	119	+17
BKN points	110	102	−8

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
WAS	33	32	23	31	–	119
BKN	26	35	12	29	–	102

Recent form before this game