2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks

Friday, November 6, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

WAS 4–4@ATL 5–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	110	132	+22
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home)	120	139	+19

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	ATL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1333	1542
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+280
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−7.2	+1.8
Games played this season	8	9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.1	110.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.3	113.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	30.6	24.6
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1333ATL1542

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1333

Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
This season's 8 games: +52.9

WMIL128–116+13.1
LTOR102–112−4.6
W@CHI124–120+10.4
L@CHA103–110−1.6
L@CLE111–121−2.0
WCHA95–79+25.5
W@ORL103–94+20.2
LATL105–120−8.1

ATL1542

Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
This season's 9 games: +16.2

W@ORL132–125+11.1
W@CHA128–81+48.4
LHOU114–121−10.8
L@HOU110–120−7.3
LMIA117–129−19.4
WCLE114–111+4.7
L@NOP99–121−22.7
W@IND108–104+4.1
W@WAS120–105+8.1

Season scoring marginWAS−7.2ATL+1.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−7.2

Scores 108.9, allows 109.0 over 8 games: −0.1 a game.

40% this season (−0.1) + 60% last season (−12.0) = −7.2

ATL+1.8

Scores 115.8, allows 113.0 over 9 games: +2.8 a game.

45% this season (+2.8) + 55% last season (+1.1) = +1.8

Offensive rating, last 10WAS111.1ATL110.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

WAS111.1scored, −1.0 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.6%	53.3%	+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	13.3%	+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.7%	27.1%	−3.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.237	0.226	+0.3
Everything else			+0.5

ATL110.3scored, −1.9 vs league

Factor	ATL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.6%	53.3%	−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	13.3%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.4%	27.1%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.163	0.226	−1.8
Everything else			+1.0

Defensive rating, last 10WAS114.3ATL113.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

WAS114.3allowed, +2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	53.3%	+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	13.3%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.6%	27.1%	−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.179	0.226	+1.3
Everything else			−0.4

ATL113.0allowed, +0.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.2%	53.3%	−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.4%	13.3%	+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.5%	27.1%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.255	0.226	−0.8
Everything else			+1.1

Pace, last 10average 101.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 99.6 and ATL 102.5 → average 101.0 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingWAS30.6ATL24.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS30.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Anthony Davis	23.4	33.0	8
Justin Champagnie	7.2	18.3	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 10 rotation players.

ATL24.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jalen Johnson	18.3	32.6	7
Jock Landale	6.3	15.3	7

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysATL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Nov 4 against ATL.

ATL2days

Last played Nov 4 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	ATL	105–120	42-88	6-26	15-21	12	9	105.0	118.8	100.5
Nov 2	@ORL	103–94	40-75	9-24	14-18	14	6	112.0	104.4	91.0
Oct 30	CHA	95–79	28-72	10-30	29-35	14	8	99.0	83.2	95.5
Oct 28	@CLE	111–121	44-83	8-32	15-17	10	5	119.4	127.4	94.0
Oct 26	@CHA	103–110	41-85	9-28	12-15	14	10	108.4	114.6	95.5
Oct 24	@CHI	124–120	45-94	10-33	24-28	13	11	118.1	113.2	105.5
Oct 23	TOR	102–112	30-79	12-37	30-35	20	6	95.3	104.7	107.0
Oct 21	MIL	128–116	45-86	6-28	32-41	11	12	123.1	112.6	103.5
Apr 12	@CLE	117–130	42-90	18-41	15-19	12	5	117.0	128.7	100.5
Apr 10	MIA	117–140	46-92	14-31	11-14	13	4	113.6	135.9	103.0

ATL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	@WAS	120–105	45-101	19-49	11-14	15	19	118.8	105.0	100.5
Nov 2	@IND	108–104	40-103	23-51	5-8	16	17	106.9	104.0	100.5
Oct 31	@NOP	99–121	35-91	8-46	21-23	19	14	94.3	114.2	105.5
Oct 29	CLE	114–111	42-95	17-43	13-18	11	15	116.3	113.3	98.0
Oct 28	MIA	117–129	46-96	16-38	9-14	15	9	109.3	120.6	107.0
Oct 26	@HOU	110–120	42-98	11-39	15-21	13	13	105.8	114.3	104.5
Oct 24	HOU	114–121	43-96	13-49	15-21	13	17	115.2	121.0	99.5
Oct 23	@CHA	128–81	48-95	18-45	14-22	12	12	128.0	81.0	100.0
Oct 21	@ORL	132–125	44-90	14-36	30-36	17	11	118.9	114.7	110.0
Apr 30	NYK	89–140	31-82	9-35	18-23	19	11	89.0	141.4	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

76%

pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner

ATL was the forecast favorite

3 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual +7 for ATL

127th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

116th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.27 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	ATL
Final score	132	139
Field goals	46–91 · 50.5%	52–98 · 53.1%
Three-pointers	18–34 · 52.9%	16–37 · 43.2%
Free throws	22–24 · 91.7%	19–20 · 95.0%
Rebounds	41	43
Assists	28	38
Turnovers	16	16
Steals	10	11
Blocks	4	1

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)	+10	+7	−3
Total points	230	271	+41
WAS points	110	132	+22
ATL points	120	139	+19

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.