2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons
Thursday, February 5, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET
WAS 7–1@DET 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS Washington Wizards | 105 | 126 | +21 |
| DET Detroit Pistons (home) | 126 | 117 | −9 |
Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 92% win probability, projected margin 21.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | WAS | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1291 | 1637 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +417 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −10.6 | +7.4 |
| Games played this season | 49 | 48 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 108.8 | 116.4 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 117.1 | 105.0 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.8 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 51.2 | 9.2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingWAS1291DET1637
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
WAS1291
- Ended last season at 1234 → started this one at 1301
- First 39 games: −0.8
- Last 10 games: −9.3
- L@SAC115–128−6.1
- L@DEN115–121−1.3
- LLAC106–110−2.7
- LDEN97–107−4.6
- L@CHA115–119−1.4
- WPOR115–111+10.1
- WMIL109–99+12.7
- LLAL111–142−13.0
- WSAC116–112+6.1
- LNYK101–132−9.1
DET1637
- Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
- First 38 games: +93.5
- Last 10 games: +12.2
- WIND121–78+6.4
- WBOS104–103+3.2
- W@NOP112–104+3.1
- LHOU104–111−12.3
- WSAC139–116+3.8
- W@DEN109–107+4.8
- L@PHX96–114−14.9
- W@GSW131–124+9.1
- WBKN130–77+6.0
- WDEN124–121+3.0
Season scoring marginWAS−10.6DET+7.4
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
WAS−10.6
Scores 112.1, allows 122.7 over 49 games: −10.6 a game.
DET+7.4
Scores 117.4, allows 109.9 over 48 games: +7.4 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10WAS108.8DET116.4
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
WAS108.8scored, −5.8 vs league
| Factor | WAS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.1% | 54.4% | −5.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.2% | −0.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.176 | 0.211 | −1.0 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
DET116.4scored, +1.7 vs league
| Factor | DET | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.1% | 54.4% | −0.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.7% | 12.2% | +2.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.219 | 0.211 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.1 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10WAS117.1DET105.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
WAS117.1allowed, +2.5 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.3% | 54.4% | −2.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.8% | 12.2% | +0.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.245 | 0.211 | −1.0 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
DET105.0allowed, −9.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.1% | 54.4% | +6.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 15.1% | 12.2% | +4.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.281 | 0.211 | −2.0 | |
| Everything else | +1.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 100.8
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
WAS 101.0 and DET 100.8 → average 100.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.3)
Rotation points missingWAS51.2DET9.2
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
WAS51.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Johnson | 15.4 | 29.3 | 7 |
| Khris Middleton | 13.3 | 25.1 | 7 |
| AJ Johnson | 11.7 | 20.8 | 3 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 10.8 | 18.1 | 5 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-05 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
DET9.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniss Jenkins | 9.2 | 19.4 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestWAS2 daysDET2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
WAS2days
Last played Feb 3 against NYK.
DET2days
Last played Feb 3 against DEN.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
WAS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3 | NYK | 101–132 | 35-86 | 11-31 | 20-32 | 13 | – | 100.0 | 130.7 | 101.0 |
| Feb 1 | SAC | 116–112 | 46-88 | 13-31 | 11-15 | 17 | – | 118.4 | 115.5 | 97.5 |
| Jan 30 | LAL | 111–142 | 44-99 | 16-48 | 7-10 | 18 | – | 105.7 | 135.2 | 105.0 |
| Jan 29 | MIL | 109–99 | 38-96 | 8-35 | 25-28 | 13 | – | 107.9 | 97.1 | 101.5 |
| Jan 27 | POR | 115–111 | 40-98 | 17-39 | 18-21 | 13 | – | 107.5 | 103.7 | 107.0 |
| Jan 24 | @CHA | 115–119 | 44-96 | 19-53 | 8-9 | 13 | – | 113.9 | 120.2 | 100.0 |
| Jan 22 | DEN | 97–107 | 32-84 | 13-43 | 20-24 | 14 | – | 101.0 | 111.5 | 96.0 |
| Jan 19 | LAC | 106–110 | 37-86 | 13-35 | 19-22 | 19 | – | 107.1 | 112.2 | 98.5 |
| Jan 17 | @DEN | 115–121 | 44-96 | 11-30 | 16-29 | 11 | – | 113.9 | 119.8 | 101.0 |
| Jan 16 | @SAC | 115–128 | 44-90 | 11-34 | 16-21 | 11 | – | 112.7 | 125.5 | 102.0 |
DET
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3 | DEN | 124–121 | 43-94 | 12-29 | 26-30 | 9 | – | 124.0 | 119.8 | 100.5 |
| Feb 1 | BKN | 130–77 | 48-85 | 12-32 | 22-29 | 6 | – | 130.0 | 76.2 | 100.5 |
| Jan 30 | @GSW | 131–124 | 46-95 | 10-26 | 29-36 | 14 | – | 118.0 | 109.7 | 112.0 |
| Jan 29 | @PHX | 96–114 | 37-87 | 6-29 | 16-21 | 9 | – | 100.0 | 118.8 | 96.0 |
| Jan 27 | @DEN | 109–107 | 44-94 | 6-31 | 15-18 | 6 | – | 116.0 | 113.8 | 94.0 |
| Jan 25 | SAC | 139–116 | 50-91 | 16-31 | 23-28 | 18 | – | 139.0 | 114.9 | 100.5 |
| Jan 23 | HOU | 104–111 | 40-84 | 7-32 | 17-24 | 16 | – | 106.1 | 113.3 | 98.0 |
| Jan 21 | @NOP | 112–104 | 39-88 | 15-39 | 19-24 | 18 | – | 108.7 | 102.0 | 102.5 |
| Jan 19 | BOS | 104–103 | 38-88 | 11-35 | 17-23 | 8 | – | 111.8 | 110.8 | 93.0 |
| Jan 17 | IND | 121–78 | 46-93 | 16-34 | 13-19 | 19 | – | 110.0 | 70.3 | 110.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | WAS | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 126 | 117 |
| Field goals | 49–91 · 53.8% | 41–88 · 46.6% |
| Three-pointers | 18–41 · 43.9% | 9–33 · 27.3% |
| Free throws | 10–18 · 55.6% | 26–33 · 78.8% |
| Rebounds | 39 | 47 |
| Assists | 30 | 22 |
| Turnovers | 16 | 15 |
| Steals | 9 | 11 |
| Blocks | 6 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Detroit Pistons
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (DET) | +21 | −9 | −30 |
| Total points | 231 | 243 | +12 |
| WAS points | 105 | 126 | +21 |
| DET points | 126 | 117 | −9 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 2025-26 | WAS at DET | WAS 135 – 137 DET |
| Mar 13 2024-25 | WAS at DET | WAS 129 – 125 DET |
| Mar 11 2024-25 | WAS at DET | WAS 103 – 123 DET |
| Nov 17 2024-25 | DET at WAS | DET 124 – 104 WAS |
| Mar 29 2023-24 | DET at WAS | DET 96 – 87 WAS |