2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards

Friday, February 3, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 6–0@WAS 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	114	124	+10
WAS Washington Wizards (home)	123	116	−7

Forecast: Washington Wizards to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	WAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1462	1522
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+130
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.6	−0.0
Games played this season	51	50
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	125.7	117.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	123.2	113.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	11.2	0.0
Rest days	2	4
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1462WAS1522

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1462

Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
First 41 games: +112.6
Last 10 games: +37.2

WDAL136–119+16.8
WDAL140–123+14.9
L@DEN113–122−3.6
LPHI95–105−8.3
LLAL112–121−11.0
WSAS147–127+8.6
WUTA134–124+10.3
LTOR105–123−16.6
WATL129–125+6.1
W@MEM122–112+20.0

WAS1522

Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
First 40 games: +50.2
Last 10 games: +33.7

LNOP112–132−16.1
WCHI100–97+4.8
LNYK108–112−6.0
LGSW118–127−10.6
W@NYK116–105+18.8
WORL138–118+9.5
W@DAL127–126+5.2
W@HOU108–103+4.3
W@NOP113–103+13.4
W@SAS127–106+10.4

Season scoring marginPOR+0.6WAS−0.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR+0.6

Scores 114.3, allows 113.7 over 51 games: +0.6 a game.

WAS−0.0

Scores 113.0, allows 113.0 over 50 games: −0.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR125.7WAS117.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.5).

POR125.7scored, +12.2 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.2%	54.4%	+7.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.9%	12.2%	+3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.7%	23.9%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.266	0.212	+1.6
Everything else			+2.0

WAS117.8scored, +4.3 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	54.4%	+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.2%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.1%	23.9%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.221	0.212	+0.3
Everything else			+2.3

Defensive rating, last 10POR123.2WAS113.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.5).

POR123.2allowed, +9.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.6%	54.4%	−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.7%	12.2%	−3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	23.9%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.214	0.212	−0.1
Everything else			−0.5

WAS113.5allowed, +0.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.6%	54.4%	+4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.0%	12.2%	−4.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.7%	23.9%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.212	+0.6
Everything else			−0.1

Pace, last 10average 98.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 97.8 and WAS 99.2 → average 98.5 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingPOR11.2WAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR11.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jusuf Nurkić	11.2	20.6	9

Source: official injury report, 2023-02-03 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

WAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-02-03 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysWAS4 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Feb 1 against MEM.

WAS4days

Last played Jan 30 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 1	@MEM	122–112	41-87	14-36	26-27	13	9	119.6	110.9	101.5
Jan 30	ATL	129–125	43-79	19-40	24-27	8	3	138.7	134.4	93.0
Jan 28	TOR	105–123	40-76	7-24	18-23	11	3	114.1	133.7	92.0
Jan 25	UTA	134–124	51-89	17-36	15-18	10	6	134.0	125.3	99.5
Jan 23	SAS	147–127	55-92	20-33	17-22	9	8	142.7	124.5	102.5
Jan 22	LAL	112–121	37-86	17-46	21-25	11	11	113.1	122.2	99.0
Jan 19	PHI	95–105	32-85	9-37	22-29	15	13	97.9	108.2	97.0
Jan 17	@DEN	113–122	38-83	13-40	24-25	13	5	115.3	125.8	97.5
Jan 15	DAL	140–123	43-85	17-44	37-42	7	8	142.9	125.5	98.0
Jan 14	DAL	136–119	49-88	17-41	21-22	9	10	138.8	121.4	98.0

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 30	@SAS	127–106	48-86	16-30	15-17	13	5	128.3	107.1	99.0
Jan 28	@NOP	113–103	40-88	11-36	22-29	16	13	113.0	102.0	100.5
Jan 25	@HOU	108–103	39-98	12-38	18-23	7	15	109.1	105.1	98.5
Jan 24	@DAL	127–126	42-83	11-30	32-41	10	6	124.5	123.5	102.0
Jan 21	ORL	138–118	51-95	18-34	18-25	8	9	135.3	115.7	102.0
Jan 18	@NYK	116–105	42-95	16-42	16-19	13	18	123.4	111.7	94.0
Jan 16	GSW	118–127	42-86	14-35	20-23	14	6	114.6	123.3	103.0
Jan 13	NYK	108–112	36-93	13-42	23-26	7	12	113.7	116.7	95.5
Jan 11	CHI	100–97	38-82	7-23	17-21	17	12	104.2	101.0	96.0
Jan 9	NOP	112–132	42-82	14-34	14-18	20	7	112.0	129.4	101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

28%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored WAS

17 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −8 for WAS

45th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

232nd

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.28 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	WAS
Final score	124	116
Field goals	43–88 · 48.9%	42–84 · 50.0%
Three-pointers	17–41 · 41.5%	12–33 · 36.4%
Free throws	21–23 · 91.3%	20–22 · 90.9%
Rebounds	38	41
Assists	25	27
Turnovers	7	10
Steals	5	4
Blocks	2	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)	+9	−8	−17
Total points	237	240	+3
POR points	114	124	+10
WAS points	123	116	−7

Recent form before this game