2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets

Sunday, April 5, 2026 · tip-off 3:30 PM ET

WAS 9–1@BKN 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	116	115	−1
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home)	114	121	+7

Forecast: Washington Wizards to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	BKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1249	1277
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+98
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−11.7	−9.7
Games played this season	77	77
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.4	101.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	127.3	117.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	57.0	53.5
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1249BKN1277

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1249

Ended last season at 1234 → started this one at 1301
First 67 games: −47.0
Last 10 games: −4.7

LDET117–130−2.7
LDET95–117−3.8
LOKC111–132−2.3
L@NYK113–145−1.9
W@UTA133–110+27.8
L@GSW126–131−2.1
L@POR88–123−6.4
L@LAL101–120−2.0
LPHI131–153−8.4
L@MIA136–152−2.9

BKN1277

Ended last season at 1287 → started this one at 1340
First 67 games: −30.1
Last 10 games: −32.9

LPOR95–114−11.2
LOKC92–121−4.0
LNYK92–93−1.0
L@SAC122–126−4.2
L@POR99–134−7.2
L@GSW106–109−1.8
L@LAL99–116−2.1
WSAC116–99+13.2
LCHA86–117−6.6
LATL107–141−8.0

Season scoring marginWAS−11.7BKN−9.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−11.7

Scores 113.0, allows 124.7 over 77 games: −11.7 a game.

BKN−9.7

Scores 106.1, allows 115.8 over 77 games: −9.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS111.4BKN101.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

WAS111.4scored, −3.4 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.6%	+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.2%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	16.4%	26.0%	−4.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.145	0.210	−1.9
Everything else			+1.6

BKN101.5scored, −13.2 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.3%	54.6%	−6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.7%	12.2%	−3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	14.6%	26.0%	−5.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.213	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			+1.8

Defensive rating, last 10WAS127.3BKN117.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

WAS127.3allowed, +12.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.4%	54.6%	−8.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.2%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	33.6%	26.0%	−3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.236	0.210	−0.7
Everything else			+2.0

BKN117.3allowed, +2.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.5%	54.6%	−5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.2%	12.2%	+4.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.5%	26.0%	−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.294	0.210	−2.4
Everything else			+3.5

Pace, last 10average 101.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 103.2 and BKN 99.9 → average 101.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingWAS57.0BKN53.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS57.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Bilal Coulibaly	13.4	24.2	7
Tristan Vukcevic	12.9	17.0	7
Justin Champagnie	12.0	22.9	7
Tre Johnson	10.7	23.8	6
Alex Sarr	8.0	22.0	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-05 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

BKN53.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ziaire Williams	12.9	22.8	9
Ben Saraf	10.3	24.6	9
Nic Claxton	9.8	22.2	9
Noah Clowney	7.8	18.5	5
Danny Wolf	7.8	20.8	4
Terance Mann	5.0	22.0	6

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-05 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

RestWAS1 daysBKN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 4 against MIA.

BKN2days

Last played Apr 3 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 4	@MIA	136–152	50-106	17-40	19-24	9	13	125.9	142.1	107.5
Apr 1	PHI	131–153	50-96	16-40	15-17	11	7	124.8	147.1	104.5
Mar 30	@LAL	101–120	41-93	7-35	12-16	9	5	101.0	117.6	101.0
Mar 29	@POR	88–123	32-87	5-22	19-22	15	2	85.4	119.4	103.0
Mar 27	@GSW	126–131	50-95	18-42	8-10	11	3	121.2	126.0	104.0
Mar 25	@UTA	133–110	52-94	13-32	16-24	18	8	120.9	99.1	110.5
Mar 22	@NYK	113–145	43-89	18-47	9-13	14	8	113.0	145.0	100.0
Mar 21	OKC	111–132	41-91	16-39	13-18	15	9	111.0	130.7	100.5
Mar 19	DET	95–117	36-82	15-38	8-12	19	6	96.0	118.2	99.0
Mar 17	DET	117–130	43-87	16-37	15-19	13	7	114.7	127.5	102.0

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 3	ATL	107–141	39-79	12-28	17-20	18	1	101.9	135.6	104.5
Mar 31	CHA	86–117	28-73	7-35	23-27	14	4	90.5	123.2	95.0
Mar 29	SAC	116–99	42-85	17-41	15-20	15	8	122.1	103.1	95.5
Mar 27	@LAL	99–116	40-96	10-39	9-15	14	11	100.0	118.4	98.5
Mar 25	@GSW	106–109	39-81	12-33	16-21	17	4	103.9	105.8	102.5
Mar 23	@POR	99–134	33-80	8-29	25-29	22	5	91.7	125.2	107.5
Mar 22	@SAC	122–126	46-88	14-33	16-20	7	5	127.1	134.0	95.0
Mar 20	NYK	92–93	34-86	14-38	10-10	15	6	94.8	95.9	97.0
Mar 18	OKC	92–121	29-79	11-35	23-31	23	6	88.5	116.3	104.0
Mar 16	POR	95–114	33-86	9-34	20-29	16	10	95.0	115.2	99.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

44%

pregame chance the forecast gave BKN, the winner

the forecast favored WAS

8 pts

margin miss

forecast −2, actual +6 for BKN

292nd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

714th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.81 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	BKN
Final score	115	121
Field goals	44–79 · 55.7%	43–88 · 48.9%
Three-pointers	9–25 · 36.0%	15–40 · 37.5%
Free throws	18–28 · 64.3%	20–23 · 87.0%
Rebounds	41	35
Assists	20	29
Turnovers	20	11
Steals	9	11
Blocks	3	9

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)	−2	+6	+8
Total points	230	236	+6
WAS points	116	115	−1
BKN points	114	121	+7

Recent form before this game