The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 15

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards

Monday, January 15, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DET 0–0@WAS 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 25 percent, WAS 75 percent. DET Pistons 25% proj. 114 · final 129 WAS Wizards · home 75% proj. 125 · final 117
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 114 129 +15
WAS Washington Wizards (home) 125 117 −8

Forecast: Washington Wizards to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDETWAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12021353
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +221
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −11.4−9.7
Games played this season 3938
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.8109.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 124.5119.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 44.60.0
Rest days 32
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1202WAS1353

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1202

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1270 → started this one at 1327
  2. First 29 games: −93.2
  3. Last 10 games: −31.9
  • LBKN112–118−3.5
  • L@BOS122–128−0.4
  • WTOR129–127+8.1
  • L@HOU113–136−4.2
  • L@UTA148–154−1.9
  • L@GSW109–113−1.2
  • L@DEN114–131−1.4
  • LSAC110–131−6.9
  • LSAS108–130−18.4
  • LHOU110–112−2.1

WAS1353

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1436 → started this one at 1452
  2. First 28 games: −93.9
  3. Last 10 games: −4.9
  • LORL119–127−6.3
  • LTOR102–132−19.7
  • WBKN110–104+9.9
  • LATL126–130−4.9
  • L@CLE101–140−7.8
  • L@CLE90–114−5.0
  • LNYK105–121−5.4
  • LOKC128–136−3.0
  • L@IND104–112−2.2
  • W@ATL127–99+39.5
Season scoring marginDET−11.4WAS−9.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET−11.4

Scores 111.3, allows 122.7 over 39 games: −11.4 a game.

WAS−9.7

Scores 115.5, allows 125.2 over 38 games: −9.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DET113.8WAS109.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.2).

DET113.8scored, −1.4 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%54.7%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%11.7%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.0%24.6%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.205−0.4
Everything else−0.7

WAS109.5scored, −5.6 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.7%−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%11.7%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.9%24.6%−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1570.205−1.4
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10DET124.5WAS119.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.2).

DET124.5allowed, +9.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.3%54.7%−5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)9.5%11.7%−3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.2%24.6%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2500.205−1.3
Everything else+0.6

WAS119.5allowed, +4.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.9%54.7%−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%11.7%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.0%24.6%−2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.205+0.1
Everything else+0.9
Pace, last 10average 101.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 100.8 and WAS 101.5 → average 101.2 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingDET44.6WAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET44.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Cade Cunningham24.633.27
Bojan Bogdanović20.041.42

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-15 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

WAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-15 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestDET3 daysWAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET3days

Last played Jan 12 against HOU.

WAS2days

Last played Jan 13 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 12HOU110–11244-8812-3510-161411111.1113.199.0
Jan 10SAS108–13044-9610-3210-13105109.1132.798.5
Jan 9SAC110–13140-8514-3716-212110106.8127.2103.0
Jan 7@DEN114–13142-899-2421-301110116.3133.798.0
Jan 5@GSW109–11344-9813-448-10117109.0114.199.5
Jan 3@UTA148–15456-10519-4117-221714131.0137.5101.9
Jan 1@HOU113–13640-8313-2920-27179108.7129.5104.5
Dec 30TOR129–12741-8212-2835-40116124.0123.3103.5
Dec 28@BOS122–12848-10114-4312-191819111.9118.598.3
Dec 26BKN112–11840-909-2523-321316109.8115.7102.0

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 13@ATL127–9947-9712-3221-261212122.195.2104.0
Jan 10@IND104–11238-887-3121-30139103.0109.8101.5
Jan 8OKC128–13644-8915-3225-291410125.5132.0102.5
Jan 6NYK105–12140-8513-3712-20209105.0118.6101.0
Jan 5@CLE90–11435-849-3011-1516491.8117.597.5
Jan 3@CLE101–14042-10112-355-1189105.2144.396.5
Dec 31ATL126–13046-9817-5317-2196115.6120.4108.5
Dec 29BKN110–10446-9115-383-767117.0111.893.5
Dec 27TOR102–13242-908-3310-15161099.0126.9103.5
Dec 26ORL119–12743-8716-4217-212010111.2118.7107.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
25%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
the forecast favored WAS
23 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −12 for WAS
12th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
136th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.38 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETWAS
Final score129117
Field goals50–90 · 55.6%44–95 · 46.3%
Three-pointers12–31 · 38.7%19–41 · 46.3%
Free throws17–23 · 73.9%10–11 · 90.9%
Rebounds5233
Assists3030
Turnovers158
Steals48
Blocks107

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)+11−12−23
Total points239246+7
DET points114129+15
WAS points125117−8

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DET29343135–129
WAS22402530–117

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Jan 12 vs HOU L 110–112
Jan 10 vs SAS L 108–130
Jan 9 vs SAC L 110–131
Jan 7 at DEN L 114–131
Jan 5 at GSW L 109–113

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Jan 13 at ATL W 127–99
Jan 10 at IND L 104–112
Jan 8 vs OKC L 128–136
Jan 6 vs NYK L 105–121
Jan 5 at CLE L 90–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 27 2023-24 WAS at DET WAS 126 – 107 DET
Mar 14 2022-23 DET at WAS DET 97 – 117 WAS
Mar 7 2022-23 WAS at DET WAS 119 – 117 DET
Oct 25 2022-23 DET at WAS DET 99 – 120 WAS
Mar 25 2021-22 WAS at DET WAS 100 – 97 DET