The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 25

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards

Tuesday, November 25, 2025 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

ATL 0–0@WAS 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 83 percent, WAS 17 percent. ATL Hawks 83% proj. 126 · final 113 WAS Wizards · home 17% proj. 112 · final 132
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 126 113 −13
WAS Washington Wizards (home) 112 132 +20

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 83% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLWAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15381224
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −244
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.5−15.4
Games played this season 1816
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.9108.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.3126.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.034.1
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1538WAS1224

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1538

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1485 → started this one at 1489
  2. First 8 games: +13.0
  3. Last 10 games: +36.2
  • LTOR97–109−16.3
  • WLAL122–102+17.6
  • W@LAC105–102+7.6
  • W@SAC133–100+24.6
  • W@UTA132–122+7.0
  • W@PHX124–122+5.5
  • LDET112–120−10.4
  • L@SAS126–135−8.3
  • W@NOP115–98+7.5
  • WCHA113–110+1.4

WAS1224

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1234 → started this one at 1301
  2. First 6 games: −31.4
  3. Last 10 games: −45.7
  • L@NYK102–119−2.3
  • L@BOS107–136−3.2
  • LCLE115–148−6.1
  • LDAL105–111−5.9
  • L@DET135–137−0.7
  • L@HOU112–135−2.1
  • LBKN106–129−20.1
  • L@MIN109–120−1.0
  • L@TOR110–140−3.5
  • L@CHI120–121−0.8
Season scoring marginATL+2.5WAS−15.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL+2.5

Scores 117.3, allows 114.4 over 18 games: +2.9 a game.

90% this season (+2.9) + 10% last season (−1.0) = +2.5

WAS−15.4

Scores 112.9, allows 129.1 over 16 games: −16.2 a game.

80% this season (−16.2) + 20% last season (−12.1) = −15.4

Offensive rating, last 10ATL116.9WAS108.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

ATL116.9scored, +2.1 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.2%54.5%+5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.6%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.1%26.3%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1680.226−1.7
Everything else−0.5

WAS108.9scored, −5.9 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.5%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)14.6%12.6%−2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.4%26.3%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.226−1.0
Everything else+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10ATL111.3WAS126.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

ATL111.3allowed, −3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.5%+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.6%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.9%26.3%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.226+0.5
Everything else+0.4

WAS126.0allowed, +11.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.1%54.5%−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)9.3%12.6%−4.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)34.7%26.3%−3.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2420.226−0.5
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 101.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 100.8 and WAS 101.9 → average 101.3 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.2)

Rotation points missingATL0.0WAS34.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

WAS34.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kyshawn George15.331.89
Tre Johnson10.822.89
Marvin Bagley III8.016.48

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysWAS3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Nov 23 against CHA.

WAS3days

Last played Nov 22 against CHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 23CHA113–11045-9111-3112-16710118.9115.895.0
Nov 22@NOP115–9842-9017-4614-19710116.2101.098.0
Nov 20@SAS126–13549-8720-378-13166123.5131.1102.5
Nov 18DET112–12042-8715-4413-151711112.0117.6101.0
Nov 16@PHX124–12245-8514-4320-24179121.6119.6102.0
Nov 13@UTA132–12246-9024-4716-22169122.2113.0108.0
Nov 12@SAC133–10049-8517-4018-22197122.092.6108.5
Nov 10@LAC105–10238-8413-3416-20117111.7110.993.0
Nov 8LAL122–10248-9316-3910-11117124.5103.098.5
Nov 7TOR97–10933-969-3822-23151996.0107.9101.0

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 22@CHI120–12144-9616-3616-201515114.3114.2105.5
Nov 21@TOR110–14039-8612-4120-24177105.8133.3104.5
Nov 19@MIN109–12043-8814-329-121712112.4122.497.5
Nov 16BKN106–12937-8412-3420-22103108.2130.398.5
Nov 12@HOU112–13542-9215-3813-191212112.0136.499.5
Nov 10@DET135–13750-9515-3820-262011116.4119.1104.6
Nov 8DAL105–11137-8911-3520-231812101.9107.8103.0
Nov 7CLE115–14841-9115-4118-232016110.6141.0104.5
Nov 5@BOS107–13639-809-2720-271911107.0138.899.0
Nov 3@NYK102–11938-8113-3513-19207100.0116.7102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
17%
pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner
the forecast favored ATL
33 pts
margin miss
forecast −14, actual +19 for WAS
12th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
31st
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.78 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLWAS
Final score113132
Field goals43–95 · 45.3%48–84 · 57.1%
Three-pointers15–43 · 34.9%19–38 · 50.0%
Free throws12–16 · 75.0%17–26 · 65.4%
Rebounds4436
Assists3330
Turnovers1812
Steals413
Blocks68

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)−14+19+33
Total points238245+7
ATL points126113−13
WAS points112132+20

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 23 vs CHA W 113–110
Nov 22 at NOP W 115–98
Nov 20 at SAS L 126–135
Nov 18 vs DET L 112–120
Nov 16 at PHX W 124–122

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Nov 22 at CHI L 120–121
Nov 21 at TOR L 110–140
Nov 19 at MIN L 109–120
Nov 16 vs BKN L 106–129
Nov 12 at HOU L 112–135

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 8 2024-25 ATL at WAS ATL 125 – 111 WAS
Nov 15 2024-25 WAS at ATL WAS 117 – 129 ATL
Oct 30 2024-25 ATL at WAS ATL 120 – 133 WAS
Oct 28 2024-25 WAS at ATL WAS 121 – 119 ATL
Jan 13 2023-24 WAS at ATL WAS 127 – 99 ATL