2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards

Sunday, December 28, 2025 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET

MEM 1–2@WAS 4–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies	123	112	−11
WAS Washington Wizards (home)	114	116	+2

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MEM	WAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1517	1301
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−146
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.5	−12.3
Games played this season	31	29
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	117.2	113.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.1	122.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	37.1	18.3
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1517WAS1301

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1517

Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1519
First 21 games: −32.6
Last 10 games: +30.3

L@SAS119–126−5.3
WLAC107–98+7.5
WPOR119–96+14.4
LUTA126–130−11.4
W@LAC121–103+18.3
W@MIN116–110+13.6
LWAS122–130−21.4
L@OKC103–119−2.5
W@UTA137–128+8.1
WMIL125–104+9.0

WAS1301

Ended last season at 1234 → started this one at 1301
First 19 games: −44.2
Last 10 games: +44.1

L@PHI102–121−6.5
LBOS101–146−8.5
LATL116–131−6.2
LCLE126–130−1.8
W@IND108–89+34.2
L@SAS94–119−3.4
W@MEM130–122+21.4
LSAS113–124−4.1
L@CHA109–126−7.4
WTOR138–117+26.4

Season scoring marginMEM−0.5WAS−12.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−0.5

Scores 115.4, allows 115.8 over 31 games: −0.5 a game.

WAS−12.3

Scores 113.5, allows 125.8 over 29 games: −12.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MEM117.2WAS113.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).

MEM117.2scored, +2.3 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.3%	54.5%	+2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.4%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.216	0.219	−0.1
Everything else			+1.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

WAS113.1scored, −1.8 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.9%	54.5%	−2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.4%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.219	−0.4
Everything else			−0.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10MEM112.1WAS122.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).

MEM112.1allowed, −2.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.9%	54.5%	+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.5%	12.4%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.206	0.219	+0.4
Everything else			−1.6

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

WAS122.9allowed, +8.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.5%	+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	8.4%	12.4%	−5.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.219	+0.3
Everything else			−4.3

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 101.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 102.1 and WAS 100.0 → average 101.1 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.8)

Rotation points missingMEM37.1WAS18.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM37.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Zach Edey	13.7	27.0	3
Jock Landale	11.2	23.1	9
John Konchar	6.7	16.9	3
Vince Williams Jr.	5.5	20.2	6

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-28 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

WAS18.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kyshawn George	14.3	32.9	10
Cam Whitmore	4.0	17.1	2

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-28 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysWAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Dec 26 against MIL.

WAS2days

Last played Dec 26 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 26	MIL	125–104	43-85	13-34	26-32	13	–	125.0	103.0	100.5
Dec 23	@UTA	137–128	49-88	19-45	20-29	15	–	129.2	120.8	106.0
Dec 22	@OKC	103–119	34-83	18-41	17-23	21	–	98.1	113.3	105.0
Dec 20	WAS	122–130	45-100	16-44	16-22	14	–	119.6	126.2	102.5
Dec 17	@MIN	116–110	42-96	11-34	21-25	18	–	108.4	102.8	107.0
Dec 15	@LAC	121–103	45-86	16-39	15-17	11	–	131.5	113.2	91.5
Dec 12	UTA	126–130	46-99	19-41	15-21	10	–	117.8	122.6	106.5
Dec 7	POR	119–96	40-89	10-35	29-39	22	–	114.4	91.4	104.5
Dec 5	LAC	107–98	42-78	10-28	13-18	15	–	109.2	100.0	98.0
Dec 2	@SAS	119–126	45-90	9-26	20-24	15	–	119.0	127.3	99.5

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 26	TOR	138–117	54-91	15-33	15-18	13	–	134.0	112.5	103.5
Dec 23	@CHA	109–126	40-97	10-35	19-23	6	–	114.7	134.0	94.5
Dec 21	SAS	113–124	42-95	11-45	18-24	5	–	108.7	121.6	103.0
Dec 20	@MEM	130–122	47-99	17-44	19-26	13	–	126.2	119.6	102.5
Dec 18	@SAS	94–119	38-94	9-36	9-14	12	–	94.0	120.2	99.5
Dec 14	@IND	108–89	41-89	10-28	16-26	11	–	118.7	98.9	90.5
Dec 12	CLE	126–130	42-86	16-44	26-32	16	–	120.0	125.0	104.5
Dec 6	ATL	116–131	41-80	17-38	17-19	20	–	114.9	128.4	101.5
Dec 4	BOS	101–146	35-84	10-31	21-25	18	–	102.0	150.5	98.0
Dec 2	@PHI	102–121	35-88	9-36	23-32	15	–	98.1	118.6	103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

27%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored MEM

13 pts

margin miss

forecast −9, actual +4 for WAS

61st

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

447th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MEM	WAS
Final score	112	116
Field goals	43–103 · 41.7%	42–99 · 42.4%
Three-pointers	9–32 · 28.1%	8–33 · 24.2%
Free throws	17–21 · 81.0%	24–25 · 96.0%
Rebounds	43	54
Assists	27	26
Turnovers	16	19
Steals	14	9
Blocks	8	12

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)	−9	+4	+13
Total points	237	228	−9
MEM points	123	112	−11
WAS points	114	116	+2

Recent form before this game