The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 24

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

WAS 1–1@CHI 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: WAS 41 percent, CHI 59 percent. WAS Wizards 41% proj. 120 · final 124 CHI Bulls · home 59% proj. 123 · final 120
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
WAS Washington Wizards 120 124 +4
CHI Chicago Bulls (home) 123 120 −3

Forecast: Chicago Bulls to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CHI

  • Home court+2.1 CHIWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.4 CHIElo CHI 1380, WAS 1288; season margin CHI −6.5, WAS −10.7.
  • Recent form+1.2 WASLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: CHI scores 107.0 and allows 119.3; WAS scores 110.8 and allows 124.2.

Together: CHI by 3, a 59% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CHI is 1–1, losing by 18 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 130). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.1. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS is 1–1, winning by 1 a game on average (scoring 115, allowing 114). Last season they were a −12 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 18% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.6. Their defense lets opponents shoot 60% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −2.5. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors CHI; left favors WAS.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +2.4, Recent form −1.2, No playoff context +0.3, Rest and schedule −0.1, Player availability +0.1, giving +3.5 for CHI. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +2.4 Recent form −1.2 No playoff context +0.3 Rest and schedule −0.1 Player availability +0.1 Projected margin +3.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +3.5. The 59% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputWASCHIEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12881380 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +161 +2.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.7−6.5 +0.6
Games played this season 22 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.8107.0 −0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 124.2119.3 −0.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 105.6 −0.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 11 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueCHI ptsWAS ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court161.4+1.21−0.96+2.17
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)119.3+0.42+2.10−1.67
Season scoring margin (away)-10.7+0.86−0.56+1.42
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)124.2+1.41+0.15+1.26
Elo rating (away)1288.3+0.61−0.51+1.11
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)107.0−1.34−0.35−1.00
Season scoring margin (home)-6.5−0.63+0.23−0.86
Elo rating (home)1379.7−0.05+0.78−0.82
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.67−0.04+0.71
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.17+0.49−0.66
Games played (away)2.0+0.05+0.63−0.57
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.8−0.03−0.52+0.49
Rest days (away)1.0+0.04−0.27+0.31
Combined pace, last 10105.6+5.23+5.51−0.27
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.03+0.23
Rest days (home)1.0−0.20+0.01−0.22
Back-to-back (home)1−0.09+0.07−0.16
Games played (home)2.0+0.50+0.59−0.09
Series pressure0.0+0.03+0.01+0.03
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1288CHI13802.5 pts toward CHI

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1288

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
  2. This season's 2 games: +8.5
  • WMIL128–116+13.1
  • LTOR102–112−4.6

CHI1380

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1339 → started this one at 1379
  2. This season's 2 games: +0.7
  • L@TOR92–135−10.0
  • W@MIL132–125+10.7
Season scoring marginWAS−10.7CHI−6.50.1 pts toward WAS

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−10.7

Scores 115.0, allows 114.0 over 2 games: +1.0 a game.

10% this season (+1.0) + 90% last season (−12.0) = −10.7

CHI−6.5

Scores 112.0, allows 130.0 over 2 games: −18.0 a game.

10% this season (−18.0) + 90% last season (−5.2) = −6.5

Offensive rating, last 10WAS110.8CHI107.00.5 pts toward WAS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

WAS110.8scored, −3.8 vs league

FactorWASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.5%−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.0%26.1%−3.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.210+0.0
Everything else+1.7

CHI107.0scored, −7.5 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.7%54.5%−5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.1%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2250.210+0.4
Everything else−1.1
Defensive rating, last 10WAS124.2CHI119.30.4 pts toward WAS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

WAS124.2allowed, +9.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.9%54.5%−8.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.5%26.1%−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2290.210−0.6
Everything else+1.0

CHI119.3allowed, +4.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.0%54.5%−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.2%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.210+0.2
Everything else−0.9
Pace, last 10average 105.60.3 pts toward WAS

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 104.2 and CHI 107.0 → average 105.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingWAS0.0CHI0.00.1 pts toward CHI

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestWAS1 daysCHI1 days0.1 pts toward WAS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against TOR.

CHI1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23TOR102–11230-7912-3730-3520695.3104.7107.0
Oct 21MIL128–11645-866-2832-411112123.1112.6103.5
Apr 12@CLE117–13042-9018-4115-19125117.0128.7100.5
Apr 10MIA117–14046-9214-3111-14134113.6135.9103.0
Apr 9CHI108–11938-9610-3822-271710100.9111.2107.0
Apr 7CHI98–12937-8611-3813-2121389.9119.4108.5
Apr 5@BKN115–12144-799-2518-28204116.2122.299.0
Apr 4@MIA136–15250-10617-4019-24913125.9142.1107.5
Apr 1PHI131–15350-9616-4015-17117124.8147.1104.5
Mar 30@LAL101–12041-937-3512-1695101.0117.6101.0

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@MIL132–12546-9812-4528-301413120.0113.6110.0
Oct 21@TOR92–13527-854-3634-47272182.1122.7111.0
Apr 12@DAL128–14952-10610-3814-191311114.3134.2111.5
Apr 10ORL103–12738-8710-3917-26201095.4118.7107.5
Apr 9@WAS119–10843-939-3024-251513111.2100.9107.0
Apr 7@WAS129–9846-9415-4522-27139119.489.9108.5
Apr 5PHX110–12041-9110-3918-231814105.8117.6103.0
Apr 3@NYK96–13635-8111-3515-2616996.0136.0100.0
Apr 1IND126–14547-9713-3919-262012114.5134.3109.0
Mar 30@SAS114–12943-9313-4415-21107111.8125.2102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
41%
pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner
the forecast favored CHI
7 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual −4 for CHI
28th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
88th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.88 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statWASCHI
Final score124120
Field goals45–94 · 47.9%40–93 · 43.0%
Three-pointers10–33 · 30.3%12–43 · 27.9%
Free throws24–28 · 85.7%28–30 · 93.3%
Rebounds4844
Assists2825
Turnovers1312
Steals510
Blocks71

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)+3−4−7
Total points243244+1
WAS points120124+4
CHI points123120−3

Recent form before this game

Washington Wizards

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 vs TOR L 102–112
Oct 21 vs MIL W 128–116
Apr 12 at CLE L 117–130
Apr 10 vs MIA L 117–140
Apr 9 vs CHI L 108–119

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at MIL W 132–125
Oct 21 at TOR L 92–135
Apr 12 at DAL L 128–149
Apr 10 vs ORL L 103–127
Apr 9 at WAS W 119–108

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 9 2025-26 CHI at WAS CHI 119 – 108 WAS
Apr 7 2025-26 CHI at WAS CHI 129 – 98 WAS
Nov 22 2025-26 WAS at CHI WAS 120 – 121 CHI
Apr 11 2024-25 WAS at CHI WAS 89 – 119 CHI
Jan 10 2024-25 WAS at CHI WAS 105 – 138 CHI