2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards

Tuesday, January 27, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

POR 1–1@WAS 6–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	120	111	−9
WAS Washington Wizards (home)	112	115	+3

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	WAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1504	1284
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−150
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.9	−10.8
Games played this season	47	44
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.1	106.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.8	117.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	10.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1504WAS1284

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1504

Ended last season at 1504 → started this one at 1503
First 37 games: −13.6
Last 10 games: +14.7

WHOU103–102+5.2
WHOU111–105+9.7
LNYK114–123−10.5
L@GSW97–119−10.4
WATL117–101+11.3
WLAL132–116+10.4
W@SAC117–110+7.4
WMIA127–110+10.7
LTOR98–110−15.3
L@BOS94–102−3.8

WAS1284

Ended last season at 1234 → started this one at 1301
First 34 games: +20.4
Last 10 games: −37.4

WORL120–112+14.1
L@PHI110–131−6.9
LNOP107–128−22.6
L@PHX93–112−3.0
L@LAC105–119−2.9
L@SAC115–128−6.1
L@DEN115–121−1.3
LLAC106–110−2.7
LDEN97–107−4.6
L@CHA115–119−1.4

Season scoring marginPOR−1.9WAS−10.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−1.9

Scores 115.6, allows 117.5 over 47 games: −1.9 a game.

WAS−10.8

Scores 112.2, allows 123.1 over 44 games: −10.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR111.1WAS106.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

POR111.1scored, −3.5 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.9%	54.4%	−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.2%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.213	0.212	+0.0
Everything else			+0.8

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

WAS106.5scored, −8.1 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.1%	54.4%	−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.2%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.212	−0.4
Everything else			−0.6

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10POR109.8WAS117.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

POR109.8allowed, −4.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.4%	+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.2%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.157	0.212	+1.6
Everything else			−0.3

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

WAS117.5allowed, +2.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.9%	54.4%	−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.2%	+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.257	0.212	−1.3
Everything else			+1.1

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 100.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 99.9 and WAS 101.3 → average 100.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.4)

Rotation points missingPOR0.0WAS10.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-01-27 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

WAS10.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Marvin Bagley III	10.0	18.9	7

Source: official injury report, 2026-01-27 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPOR1 daysWAS3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 26 against BOS.

WAS3days

Last played Jan 24 against CHA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 26	@BOS	94–102	32-78	10-40	20-30	18	–	95.9	104.1	98.0
Jan 23	TOR	98–110	39-98	13-45	7-10	13	–	101.0	112.2	97.5
Jan 22	MIA	127–110	48-96	20-50	11-13	18	–	123.3	105.8	103.5
Jan 18	@SAC	117–110	40-83	8-32	29-33	14	–	115.8	107.8	101.5
Jan 17	LAL	132–116	45-86	16-42	26-34	15	–	132.0	116.0	100.0
Jan 15	ATL	117–101	43-95	14-46	17-24	14	–	112.5	97.1	104.0
Jan 13	@GSW	97–119	36-83	14-47	11-17	22	–	95.1	116.7	102.0
Jan 11	NYK	114–123	40-84	12-39	22-25	15	–	114.0	123.0	100.0
Jan 9	HOU	111–105	37-89	16-44	21-23	13	–	114.4	108.2	97.0
Jan 7	HOU	103–102	36-83	12-40	19-25	13	–	107.3	107.4	95.5

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 24	@CHA	115–119	44-96	19-53	8-9	13	–	113.9	120.2	100.0
Jan 22	DEN	97–107	32-84	13-43	20-24	14	–	101.0	111.5	96.0
Jan 19	LAC	106–110	37-86	13-35	19-22	19	–	107.1	112.2	98.5
Jan 17	@DEN	115–121	44-96	11-30	16-29	11	–	113.9	119.8	101.0
Jan 16	@SAC	115–128	44-90	11-34	16-21	11	–	112.7	125.5	102.0
Jan 14	@LAC	105–119	41-90	10-38	13-17	11	–	108.2	124.0	96.5
Jan 11	@PHX	93–112	34-86	7-30	18-18	22	–	89.4	108.7	103.5
Jan 9	NOP	107–128	37-87	11-35	22-33	19	–	100.0	118.5	107.5
Jan 7	@PHI	110–131	43-87	13-33	11-11	22	–	106.8	128.4	102.5
Jan 6	ORL	120–112	39-86	11-34	31-33	14	–	112.1	106.7	106.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

29%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored POR

12 pts

margin miss

forecast −8, actual +4 for WAS

79th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

490th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.25 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	WAS
Final score	111	115
Field goals	42–109 · 38.5%	40–98 · 40.8%
Three-pointers	14–38 · 36.8%	17–39 · 43.6%
Free throws	13–23 · 56.5%	18–21 · 85.7%
Rebounds	69	46
Assists	19	27
Turnovers	20	13
Steals	10	16
Blocks	5	12

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)	−8	+4	+12
Total points	232	226	−6
POR points	120	111	−9
WAS points	112	115	+3

Recent form before this game