2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

WAS 4–5@OKC 7–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	107	75	−32
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	115	114	−1

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans OKC

Home court+2.1 OKCWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
Team strength+7.5 OKCElo OKC 1677, WAS 1330; season margin OKC +7.9, WAS −7.0.
Player availability+1.9 WASWAS without Justin Champagnie (7 ppg); OKC without Jalen Williams (14 ppg) and Chet Holmgren (12 ppg) and 2 more.
Recent form+0.5 OKCLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: OKC scores 112.5 and allows 110.1; WAS scores 112.2 and allows 114.0.

Together: OKC by 8, a 72% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

OKC is 7–2, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 112, allowing 107). Last season they were a +11 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense turns it over on 11.0% of possessions (league 13.3%), which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −2.5. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.3, free throws allowed +1.0. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Jaylin Williams are out (35 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS is 4–5, losing by 1 a game on average (scoring 111, allowing 112). Last season they were a −12 team, which still counts for 55% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 21% of its own misses (league 27%), which alone costs about 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.2. Their defense lets opponents rebound 32% of their misses (league 27%), which alone costs about 2.2 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.6, free throws allowed +1.6. Justin Champagnie (7 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors OKC; left favors WAS.

Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +7.9. The 72% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated

Every input the model received, with its effect

Input	WAS	OKC	Effect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1330	1677	+1.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+417		+5.5
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−7.0	+7.9	+1.5
Games played this season	9	9	−0.8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.2	112.5	−0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.0	110.1	−0.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.1		+1.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	7.3	34.9	−1.9
Rest days	1	1	−0.3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes	−0.0

All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team

Input	Value	OKC pts	WAS pts	Margin
Elo gap incl. home court	416.6	+2.80	−2.73	+5.53
Season scoring margin (away)	-7.0	+0.73	−0.89	+1.62
Rotation points missing (home)	34.9	−0.97	+0.18	−1.15
Combined pace, last 10	99.1	−0.03	−0.99	+0.96
Rotation points missing (away)	7.3	−0.33	+0.43	−0.76
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)	114.0	−0.71	−0.05	−0.66
Elo rating (away)	1330.5	+0.48	−0.17	+0.65
Elo rating (home)	1677.1	−0.01	−0.56	+0.55
Games played (away)	9.0	−0.10	+0.45	−0.55
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)	110.1	−0.58	−1.03	+0.45
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)	112.5	−0.47	−0.09	−0.38
Rest days (home)	1.0	−0.04	+0.26	−0.29
Games played (home)	9.0	−0.17	+0.04	−0.21
Home series wins	0.0	+0.19	+0.04	+0.15
Season scoring margin (home)	7.9	−0.39	−0.29	−0.10
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)	112.2	+0.04	−0.06	+0.10
Series pressure	0.0	+0.08	+0.02	+0.06
Rest days (away)	1.0	+0.02	+0.07	−0.05
Back-to-back (home)	1	−0.03	±0.00	−0.03
Elimination game	0	+0.00	+0.01	−0.00
Back-to-back (away)	1	±0.00	±0.00	±0.00
Baseline (average output)		114.4	112.4	+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1330OKC16776.7 pts toward OKC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1330

Ended last season at 1206 → started this one at 1280
This season's 9 games: +50.6

WMIL128–116+13.1
LTOR102–112−4.6
W@CHI124–120+10.4
L@CHA103–110−1.6
L@CLE111–121−2.0
WCHA95–79+25.5
W@ORL103–94+20.2
LATL105–120−8.1
L@ATL132–139−2.3

OKC1677

Ended last season at 1743 → started this one at 1682
This season's 9 games: −5.1

W@SAS116–104+15.8
WDEN96–84+5.4
WLAC108–101+2.8
WPHX125–114+3.2
L@DAL96–120−36.4
L@HOU98–119−17.0
W@CLE117–112+6.9
WCLE124–116+4.6
W@MEM128–97+9.6

Season scoring marginWAS−7.0OKC+7.90.8 pts toward OKC

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−7.0

Scores 111.4, allows 112.3 over 9 games: −0.9 a game.

45% this season (−0.9) + 55% last season (−12.0) = −7.0

OKC+7.9

Scores 112.0, allows 107.4 over 9 games: +4.6 a game.

45% this season (+4.6) + 55% last season (+10.7) = +7.9

Offensive rating, last 10WAS112.2OKC112.50.3 pts toward WAS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

WAS112.2scored, −0.1 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.9%	53.3%	+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	13.3%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.8%	27.3%	−2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.250	0.228	+0.6
Everything else			+0.0

OKC112.5scored, +0.3 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.6%	53.3%	−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	13.3%	+3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.5%	27.3%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.228	−0.8
Everything else			+0.7

Defensive rating, last 10WAS114.0OKC110.10.2 pts toward WAS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

WAS114.0allowed, +1.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.2%	53.3%	+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	13.3%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.2%	27.3%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.172	0.228	+1.6
Everything else			−1.5

OKC110.1allowed, −2.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.7%	53.3%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	13.3%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.2%	27.3%	+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.228	+1.0
Everything else			−1.6

Pace, last 10average 99.11.0 pts toward OKC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 99.8 and OKC 98.3 → average 99.1 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingWAS7.3OKC34.91.9 pts toward WAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS7.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Justin Champagnie	7.2	18.3	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

OKC34.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jalen Williams	13.7	31.6	3
Chet Holmgren	12.0	29.9	3
Cason Wallace	6.3	16.3	3
Jaylin Williams	2.9	18.5	7

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

RestWAS1 daysOKC1 days0.4 pts toward WAS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 6 against ATL.

OKC1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 6 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	@ATL	132–139	46-91	18-34	22-24	16	14	124.5	132.4	105.5
Nov 4	ATL	105–120	42-88	6-26	15-21	12	9	105.0	118.8	100.5
Nov 2	@ORL	103–94	40-75	9-24	14-18	14	6	112.0	104.4	91.0
Oct 30	CHA	95–79	28-72	10-30	29-35	14	8	99.0	83.2	95.5
Oct 28	@CLE	111–121	44-83	8-32	15-17	10	5	119.4	127.4	94.0
Oct 26	@CHA	103–110	41-85	9-28	12-15	14	10	108.4	114.6	95.5
Oct 24	@CHI	124–120	45-94	10-33	24-28	13	11	118.1	113.2	105.5
Oct 23	TOR	102–112	30-79	12-37	30-35	20	6	95.3	104.7	107.0
Oct 21	MIL	128–116	45-86	6-28	32-41	11	12	123.1	112.6	103.5
Apr 12	@CLE	117–130	42-90	18-41	15-19	12	5	117.0	128.7	100.5

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 6	@MEM	128–97	51-92	16-35	10-16	12	6	123.1	93.3	104.0
Nov 4	CLE	124–116	41-89	15-36	27-35	9	8	120.4	113.7	102.5
Nov 2	@CLE	117–112	42-98	12-31	21-23	8	15	120.6	116.7	96.5
Oct 31	@HOU	98–119	37-85	10-32	14-15	13	10	104.3	126.6	94.0
Oct 28	@DAL	96–120	36-87	5-32	19-23	13	12	98.0	122.4	98.0
Oct 26	PHX	125–114	44-86	12-32	25-29	16	12	127.6	117.5	97.5
Oct 25	LAC	108–101	42-94	8-24	16-17	16	15	105.9	99.0	102.0
Oct 22	DEN	96–84	36-95	11-43	13-14	12	16	102.1	89.4	94.0
Oct 20	@SAS	116–104	43-95	14-31	16-20	11	10	113.7	102.0	102.0
May 30	SAS	103–111	37-83	12-35	17-22	13	10	109.6	120.7	93.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

72%

pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner

OKC was the forecast favorite

31 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual +39 for OKC

109th

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

6th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	OKC
Final score	75	114
Field goals	29–98 · 29.6%	45–92 · 48.9%
Three-pointers	7–43 · 16.3%	10–28 · 35.7%
Free throws	10–15 · 66.7%	14–18 · 77.8%
Rebounds	47	55
Assists	20	33
Turnovers	11	10
Steals	6	9
Blocks	6	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+8	+39	+31
Total points	222	189	−33
WAS points	107	75	−32
OKC points	115	114	−1

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.