2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks

Wednesday, December 31, 2025 · tip-off 3:00 PM ET

MIN 0–2@ATL 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	124	102	−22
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home)	116	126	+10

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIN	ATL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1615	1425
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−119
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+5.0	−1.6
Games played this season	33	34
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.7	116.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.9	123.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	103.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	20.8
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1615ATL1425

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1615

Ended last season at 1690 → started this one at 1642
First 23 games: −17.1
Last 10 games: −10.5

LPHX105–108−9.2
W@GSW127–120+9.3
WSAC117–103+3.2
LMEM110–116−13.6
WOKC112–107+10.2
WMIL103–100+1.5
WNYK115–104+7.7
L@DEN138–142−4.6
LBKN107–123−32.4
W@CHI136–101+17.4

ATL1425

Ended last season at 1485 → started this one at 1489
First 24 games: +1.9
Last 10 games: −65.3

W@WAS131–116+6.2
L@DET115–142−9.5
WPHI120–117+3.2
L@CHA126–133−10.1
LSAS98–126−20.3
LCHI150–152−6.6
LCHI123–126−7.4
LMIA111–126−15.5
LNYK125–128−3.7
L@OKC129–140−1.6

Season scoring marginMIN+5.0ATL−1.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+5.0

Scores 119.3, allows 114.2 over 33 games: +5.0 a game.

ATL−1.6

Scores 119.1, allows 120.6 over 34 games: −1.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIN113.7ATL116.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).

MIN113.7scored, −1.3 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.9%	54.6%	−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.7%	12.3%	+3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.220	0.219	+0.0
Everything else			−2.6

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

ATL116.0scored, +0.9 vs league

Factor	ATL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.2%	54.6%	+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.3%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.219	−0.7
Everything else			−0.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10MIN109.9ATL123.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).

MIN109.9allowed, −5.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.0%	54.6%	+5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.3%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.219	+0.4
Everything else			−1.2

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

ATL123.1allowed, +8.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.3%	54.6%	−7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.3%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.214	0.219	+0.2
Everything else			+0.3

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 103.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 101.4 and ATL 106.0 → average 103.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.8)

Rotation points missingMIN0.0ATL20.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

ATL20.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Trae Young	20.8	28.2	5

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMIN2 daysATL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN2days

Last played Dec 29 against CHI.

ATL2days

Last played Dec 29 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 29	@CHI	136–101	51-95	15-37	19-25	3	–	130.8	98.1	103.5
Dec 27	BKN	107–123	37-83	13-31	20-28	11	–	110.3	129.5	96.0
Dec 25	@DEN	138–142	51-104	12-45	24-30	13	–	117.9	119.3	106.9
Dec 23	NYK	115–104	42-93	15-46	16-23	11	–	111.7	102.0	102.5
Dec 21	MIL	103–100	37-88	14-46	15-23	10	–	104.0	101.0	99.0
Dec 19	OKC	112–107	33-88	13-37	33-47	13	–	108.7	103.9	103.0
Dec 17	MEM	110–116	39-98	13-44	19-27	18	–	102.8	108.4	107.0
Dec 14	SAC	117–103	43-94	12-37	19-27	11	–	117.0	103.0	100.0
Dec 12	@GSW	127–120	48-89	11-31	20-28	10	–	122.1	117.6	103.0
Dec 8	PHX	105–108	39-83	11-42	16-23	13	–	111.7	116.1	93.5

ATL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 29	@OKC	129–140	46-97	25-54	12-17	16	–	118.3	128.4	109.0
Dec 27	NYK	125–128	43-89	17-43	22-27	11	–	121.4	124.3	103.0
Dec 26	MIA	111–126	40-85	12-36	19-21	21	–	100.9	113.5	110.5
Dec 23	CHI	123–126	48-95	14-42	13-20	11	–	115.0	116.7	107.5
Dec 21	CHI	150–152	51-98	23-47	25-32	10	–	138.9	140.7	108.0
Dec 19	SAS	98–126	38-94	10-40	12-16	16	–	92.5	117.8	106.5
Dec 18	@CHA	126–133	48-92	11-37	19-22	15	–	121.2	127.9	104.0
Dec 14	PHI	120–117	43-99	17-33	17-21	16	–	116.5	112.5	103.5
Dec 12	@DET	115–142	39-85	11-36	26-31	20	–	106.5	134.0	107.0
Dec 6	@WAS	131–116	52-98	13-39	14-14	12	–	128.4	114.9	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

29%

pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner

the forecast favored MIN

32 pts

margin miss

forecast −8, actual +24 for ATL

79th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

35th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.25 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	ATL
Final score	102	126
Field goals	37–87 · 42.5%	51–104 · 49.0%
Three-pointers	14–40 · 35.0%	16–42 · 38.1%
Free throws	14–18 · 77.8%	8–16 · 50.0%
Rebounds	46	49
Assists	22	38
Turnovers	14	8
Steals	5	9
Blocks	6	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)	−8	+24	+32
Total points	240	228	−12
MIN points	124	102	−22
ATL points	116	126	+10

Recent form before this game