The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 16

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks

Wednesday, November 16, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 0–0@ATL 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 40 percent, ATL 60 percent. BOS Celtics 40% proj. 109 · final 126 ATL Hawks · home 60% proj. 113 · final 101
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 109 126 +17
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home) 113 101 −12

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 60% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSATL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16571555
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −32
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.0+2.0
Games played this season 1414
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 119.5113.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.8110.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 26.70.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1657ATL1555

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1657

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1695 → started this one at 1646
  2. First 4 games: −8.1
  3. Last 10 games: +19.1
  • LCLE123–132−16.8
  • WWAS112–94+4.8
  • L@CLE113–114−4.1
  • WCHI123–119+2.5
  • W@NYK133–118+11.2
  • W@MEM109–106+6.3
  • WDET128–112+2.7
  • WDEN131–112+7.3
  • W@DET117–108+3.7
  • WOKC126–122+1.5

ATL1555

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 4 games: −4.4
  3. Last 10 games: +43.1
  • W@DET136–112+14.2
  • L@MIL115–123−5.1
  • L@TOR109–139−15.4
  • W@NYK112–99+16.0
  • WNOP124–121+5.1
  • WMIL117–98+17.2
  • LUTA119–125−8.7
  • WPHI104–95+8.3
  • L@PHI109–121−8.4
  • W@MIL121–106+19.9
Season scoring marginBOS+6.0ATL+2.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+6.0

Scores 120.0, allows 114.1 over 14 games: +5.9 a game.

70% this season (+5.9) + 30% last season (+6.4) = +6.0

ATL+2.0

Scores 115.6, allows 113.1 over 14 games: +2.5 a game.

70% this season (+2.5) + 30% last season (+0.8) = +2.0

Offensive rating, last 10BOS119.5ATL113.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.7).

BOS119.5scored, +7.8 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%53.6%+6.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.7%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.8%23.9%−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2440.210+1.0
Everything else+1.6

ATL113.2scored, +1.5 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.7%53.6%−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.7%+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%23.9%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.210−0.8
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10BOS110.8ATL110.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.7).

BOS110.8allowed, −1.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%53.6%+2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.7%−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.7%23.9%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.210+0.2
Everything else+0.8

ATL110.3allowed, −1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.7%53.6%+4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.7%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.8%23.9%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2640.210−1.6
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 101.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 100.3 and ATL 102.2 → average 101.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingBOS26.7ATL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS26.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Malcolm Brogdon14.723.07
Marcus Smart12.031.910

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-16 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-16 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestBOS2 daysATL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS2days

Last played Nov 14 against OKC.

ATL2days

Last played Nov 14 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 14OKC126–12246-9610-3724-291410112.5108.0112.5
Nov 12@DET117–10839-9118-4821-2479119.4109.198.5
Nov 11DEN131–11250-9016-3715-20710140.9120.493.0
Nov 9DET128–11247-8818-4616-21128125.5109.8102.0
Nov 7@MEM109–10638-8212-3721-28157110.1105.0100.0
Nov 5@NYK133–11847-8827-5112-12128135.7119.298.5
Nov 4CHI123–11941-839-3132-39137119.4114.4103.5
Nov 2@CLE113–11438-9311-4126-27148102.7103.699.6
Oct 30WAS112–9436-7921-4719-20134115.596.997.0
Oct 28CLE123–13242-8213-3326-32195112.8121.198.7

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 14@MIL121–10644-927-2026-30913119.8103.9101.5
Nov 12@PHI109–12140-896-2423-271812107.9119.8101.0
Nov 10PHI104–9539-886-2620-23181198.189.6106.0
Nov 9UTA119–12551-1098-289-111117114.4119.0104.5
Nov 7MIL117–9846-9911-2914-171212113.696.1102.5
Nov 5NOP124–12147-1039-3621-251312108.8107.1102.8
Nov 2@NYK112–9944-10712-3412-16717110.998.0101.0
Oct 31@TOR109–13939-8411-2920-25187105.8135.0103.0
Oct 29@MIL115–12345-9413-2912-151212113.9121.8101.0
Oct 28@DET136–11255-9712-2914-18610138.8113.198.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
40%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
the forecast favored ATL
29 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −25 for ATL
232nd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
32nd
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 0.93 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSATL
Final score126101
Field goals48–88 · 54.5%42–101 · 41.6%
Three-pointers21–46 · 45.7%7–32 · 21.9%
Free throws9–10 · 90.0%10–13 · 76.9%
Rebounds4945
Assists2921
Turnovers149
Steals45
Blocks85

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)+4−25−29
Total points222227+5
BOS points109126+17
ATL points113101−12

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Nov 14 vs OKC W 126–122
Nov 12 at DET W 117–108
Nov 11 vs DEN W 131–112
Nov 9 vs DET W 128–112
Nov 7 at MEM W 109–106

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 14 at MIL W 121–106
Nov 12 at PHI L 109–121
Nov 10 vs PHI W 104–95
Nov 9 vs UTA L 119–125
Nov 7 vs MIL W 117–98

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 1 2021-22 ATL at BOS ATL 98 – 107 BOS
Feb 13 2021-22 ATL at BOS ATL 95 – 105 BOS
Jan 28 2021-22 BOS at ATL BOS 92 – 108 ATL
Nov 17 2021-22 BOS at ATL BOS 99 – 110 ATL