The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 12

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics

Tuesday, November 12, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

ATL 1–0@BOS 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 14 percent, BOS 86 percent. ATL Hawks 14% proj. 110 · final 117 BOS Celtics · home 86% proj. 127 · final 116
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 110 117 +7
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 127 116 −11

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 86% win probability, projected margin 17.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14341702
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +338
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −4.0+10.6
Games played this season 1111
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.6117.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.3107.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 23.30.0
Rest days 32
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1434BOS1702

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1434

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1453 → started this one at 1465
  2. First 1 games: +4.2
  3. Last 10 games: −34.8
  • WCHA125–120+3.6
  • L@OKC104–128−6.1
  • LWAS119–121−9.3
  • L@WAS120–133−15.5
  • LSAC115–123−8.3
  • W@NOP126–111+21.6
  • LBOS93–123−10.3
  • WNYK121–116+8.5
  • L@DET121–122−4.1
  • LCHI113–125−14.9

BOS1702

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1742 → started this one at 1682
  2. First 1 games: +7.7
  3. Last 10 games: +12.8
  • W@WAS122–102+4.1
  • W@DET124–118+2.1
  • WMIL119–108+3.3
  • L@IND132–135−7.3
  • W@CHA124–109+4.3
  • W@CHA113–103+3.2
  • W@ATL123–93+10.3
  • LGSW112–118−12.4
  • WBKN108–104+1.3
  • W@MIL113–107+3.9
Season scoring marginATL−4.0BOS+10.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL−4.0

Scores 116.1, allows 121.6 over 11 games: −5.5 a game.

55% this season (−5.5) + 45% last season (−2.2) = −4.0

BOS+10.6

Scores 120.2, allows 109.6 over 11 games: +10.6 a game.

55% this season (+10.6) + 45% last season (+10.7) = +10.6

Offensive rating, last 10ATL111.6BOS117.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

ATL111.6scored, −1.0 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%53.9%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.4%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%24.6%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2180.205+0.4
Everything else+0.1

BOS117.2scored, +4.6 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%53.9%+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.4%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.3%24.6%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2300.205+0.7
Everything else+2.3
Defensive rating, last 10ATL118.3BOS107.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

ATL118.3allowed, +5.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%53.9%−4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.4%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.6%24.6%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.205−0.3
Everything else−1.2

BOS107.9allowed, −4.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%53.9%+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.4%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%24.6%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1670.205+1.1
Everything else−0.0
Pace, last 10average 101.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 103.5 and BOS 99.6 → average 101.6 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingATL23.3BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL23.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Trae Young23.336.610

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-12 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-12 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestATL3 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL3days

Last played Nov 9 against CHI.

BOS2days

Last played Nov 10 against MIL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 9CHI113–12541-899-2922-301310106.6120.2105.0
Nov 8@DET121–12244-9715-3618-231715113.1115.1106.5
Nov 6NYK121–11645-10015-3816-22816122.2116.099.5
Nov 4BOS93–12337-896-3113-1619887.7117.1105.5
Nov 3@NOP126–11150-8815-3611-121610128.6113.398.0
Nov 1SAC115–12341-9219-5014-18138110.6118.3104.0
Oct 30@WAS120–13345-9512-3918-211512113.2125.5106.0
Oct 28WAS119–12139-8115-4026-36166112.3115.2105.5
Oct 27@OKC104–12836-9110-3122-291917103.0125.5101.5
Oct 25CHA125–12039-8114-3833-38137119.0116.5104.0

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 10@MIL113–10735-8619-5024-27128115.3109.298.0
Nov 8BKN108–10439-9014-5316-19134106.9103.091.5
Nov 6GSW112–11838-9019-5417-211213116.7122.996.0
Nov 4@ATL123–9348-9918-559-131211117.187.7105.5
Nov 2@CHA113–10336-8216-5225-28158116.5106.297.0
Nov 1@CHA124–10941-8613-4229-351011125.3111.298.5
Oct 30@IND132–13544-10919-5725-311418112.8112.5107.3
Oct 28MIL119–10843-8718-4715-19124117.8105.9101.5
Oct 26@DET124–11838-9022-4826-301013126.5121.697.5
Oct 24@WAS122–10242-9017-4521-271412117.399.0103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
14%
pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
18 pts
margin miss
forecast +17, actual −1 for BOS
2nd
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
232nd
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 2.00 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLBOS
Final score117116
Field goals50–99 · 50.5%38–75 · 50.7%
Three-pointers10–32 · 31.3%18–45 · 40.0%
Free throws7–13 · 53.8%22–27 · 81.5%
Rebounds4434
Assists3528
Turnovers1620
Steals167
Blocks25

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+17−1−18
Total points237233−4
ATL points110117+7
BOS points127116−11

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
ATL29253033–117
BOS31342625–116

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 9 vs CHI L 113–125
Nov 8 at DET L 121–122
Nov 6 vs NYK W 121–116
Nov 4 vs BOS L 93–123
Nov 3 at NOP W 126–111

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Nov 10 at MIL W 113–107
Nov 8 vs BKN W 108–104
Nov 6 vs GSW L 112–118
Nov 4 at ATL W 123–93
Nov 2 at CHA W 113–103

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 4 2024-25 BOS at ATL BOS 123 – 93 ATL
Mar 28 2023-24 BOS at ATL BOS 122 – 123 ATL
Mar 25 2023-24 BOS at ATL BOS 118 – 120 ATL
Feb 7 2023-24 ATL at BOS ATL 117 – 125 BOS
Nov 26 2023-24 ATL at BOS ATL 103 – 113 BOS