2025-26 · Playoffs · Final
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks
Saturday, April 25, 2026 · tip-off 6:00 PM ET
NYK 3–3@ATL 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYK New York Knicks | 109 | 114 | +5 |
| ATL Atlanta Hawks (home) | 106 | 98 | −8 |
Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 58% win probability, projected margin 3.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtNo saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | NYK | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 114 | 98 |
| Field goals | 41–83 · 49.4% | 34–83 · 41.0% |
| Three-pointers | 14–31 · 45.2% | 10–41 · 24.4% |
| Free throws | 18–23 · 78.3% | 20–25 · 80.0% |
| Rebounds | 43 | 38 |
| Assists | 23 | 20 |
| Turnovers | 14 | 18 |
| Steals | 9 | 8 |
| Blocks | 3 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Atlanta Hawks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (ATL) | −3 | −16 | −13 |
| Total points | 215 | 212 | −3 |
| NYK points | 109 | 114 | +5 |
| ATL points | 106 | 98 | −8 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-25 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
New York Knicks
No players listed.
Atlanta Hawks
- Out Jock Landale
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23 2025-26 | NYK at ATL | NYK 108 – 109 ATL |
| Apr 20 2025-26 | ATL at NYK | ATL 107 – 106 NYK |
| Apr 18 2025-26 | ATL at NYK | ATL 102 – 113 NYK |
| Apr 6 2025-26 | NYK at ATL | NYK 108 – 105 ATL |
| Jan 2 2025-26 | ATL at NYK | ATL 111 – 99 NYK |