The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 7

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

BKN 2–6@ATL 6–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BKN 20 percent, ATL 80 percent. BKN Nets 20% proj. 109 · final 121 ATL Hawks · home 80% proj. 121 · final 124
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BKN Brooklyn Nets 109 121 +12
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home) 121 124 +3

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans ATL

  • Home court+2.1 ATLWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+6.5 ATLElo ATL 1545, BKN 1314; season margin ATL +2.1, BKN −8.5.
  • Recent form+3.3 ATLLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: ATL scores 114.6 and allows 111.3; BKN scores 106.3 and allows 116.5.
  • Rest and schedule+0.5 BKNATL 1 days of rest, BKN 3. ATL on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: ATL by 12, a 80% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

ATL is 6–4, winning by 3 a game on average (scoring 118, allowing 115). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 50% of their season margin. Their offense makes 16 free throws per 100 shots (league 23), which alone costs about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.5, offensive rebounding +1.0. Their defense forces turnovers on 14.9% of opponent possessions (league 13.3%), which alone adds about 2.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −2.0. Jock Landale (6 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN is 2–6, losing by 6 a game on average (scoring 107, allowing 113). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 60% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −2.5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 53% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.7, free throws allowed −1.2. Egor Dëmin (8 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors ATL; left favors BKN.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +6.5, Recent form +3.3, Rest and schedule −0.5, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability −0.1, giving +11.6 for ATL. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +6.5 Recent form +3.3 Rest and schedule −0.5 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability −0.1 Projected margin +11.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +11.6. The 80% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputBKNATLEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13141545 +1.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +300 +4.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.5+2.1 +1.8
Games played this season 810 −0.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 106.3114.6 +1.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.5111.3 +1.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.9 +0.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.86.3 −0.0
Rest days 31 −0.5
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueATL ptsBKN ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court300.3+1.78−2.31+4.09
Season scoring margin (away)-8.5+0.57−0.89+1.46
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)106.3−0.04−1.41+1.37
Elo rating (away)1314.3+0.55−0.16+0.71
Rotation points missing (away)7.8−0.24+0.45−0.70
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)116.5+0.75+0.06+0.70
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)111.3−0.68−1.33+0.66
Rotation points missing (home)6.3+0.56−0.08+0.65
Combined pace, last 10101.0+2.74+2.26+0.48
Rest days (home)1.0−0.11+0.36−0.47
Elo rating (home)1544.6+0.07−0.30+0.37
Season scoring margin (home)2.1+0.41+0.05+0.36
Games played (away)8.0−0.11+0.17−0.28
Home series wins0.0+0.27+0.04+0.23
Games played (home)10.0−0.17+0.01−0.18
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)114.6+0.03−0.07+0.10
Back-to-back (home)1−0.03±0.00−0.03
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.02+0.02
Rest days (away)3.0−0.00−0.02+0.02
Elimination game0+0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.07

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBKN1314ATL15455.2 pts toward ATL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BKN1314

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
  2. This season's 8 games: −0.7
  • LCHA103–110−3.0
  • L@CLE121–125−1.3
  • LIND109–136−21.5
  • L@BOS124–125−0.6
  • LDET94–110−3.9
  • W@IND98–90+14.6
  • L@NYK90–103−1.3
  • WCHA114–104+16.3

ATL1545

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
  2. This season's 10 games: +18.5
  • W@ORL132–125+11.1
  • W@CHA128–81+48.4
  • LHOU114–121−10.8
  • L@HOU110–120−7.3
  • LMIA117–129−19.4
  • WCLE114–111+4.7
  • L@NOP99–121−22.7
  • W@IND108–104+4.1
  • W@WAS120–105+8.1
  • WWAS139–132+2.3
Season scoring marginBKN−8.5ATL+2.11.4 pts toward ATL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BKN−8.5

Scores 106.6, allows 112.9 over 8 games: −6.3 a game.

40% this season (−6.3) + 60% last season (−10.0) = −8.5

ATL+2.1

Scores 118.1, allows 114.9 over 10 games: +3.2 a game.

50% this season (+3.2) + 50% last season (+1.1) = +2.1

Offensive rating, last 10BKN106.3ATL114.61.5 pts toward ATL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

BKN106.3scored, −6.0 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%53.3%−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%13.3%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.8%27.3%−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2490.228+0.6
Everything else−0.2

ATL114.6scored, +2.3 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%53.3%+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%13.3%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.6%27.3%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1600.228−1.9
Everything else+1.6
Defensive rating, last 10BKN116.5ATL111.31.4 pts toward ATL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.3).

BKN116.5allowed, +4.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.5%53.3%−6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.1%13.3%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%27.3%+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2690.228−1.2
Everything else+0.5

ATL111.3allowed, −1.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%53.3%−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)14.9%13.3%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.0%27.3%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2470.228−0.6
Everything else+1.1
Pace, last 10average 100.90.5 pts toward ATL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

Rotation points missingBKN7.8ATL6.3no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BKN7.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Egor Dëmin7.821.84

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

ATL6.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jock Landale6.315.37

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestBKN3 daysATL1 days0.5 pts toward BKN

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BKN3days

Last played Nov 4 against CHA.

ATL1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 6 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 4CHA114–10440-7914-3720-28115121.3110.694.0
Nov 2@NYK90–10329-7613-3819-27131298.9114.490.5
Nov 1@IND98–9030-7313-3925-31157106.597.892.0
Oct 30DET94–11031-7711-3721-2623992.2108.9101.5
Oct 27@BOS124–12545-9717-5017-221512111.7112.6100.5
Oct 25IND109–13635-8613-3926-371510103.8129.5105.0
Oct 24@CLE121–12539-9820-4923-271818113.1116.8107.0
Oct 21CHA103–11036-8012-3119-252211102.0107.8101.5
Apr 12@TOR101–13635-869-3422-29156101.0136.0100.0
Apr 10@MIL108–12538-8418-4514-1675112.5130.296.0

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 6WAS139–13252-9816-3719-201614132.4124.5105.5
Nov 4@WAS120–10545-10119-4911-141519118.8105.0100.5
Nov 2@IND108–10440-10323-515-81617106.9104.0100.5
Oct 31@NOP99–12135-918-4621-23191494.3114.2105.5
Oct 29CLE114–11142-9517-4313-181115116.3113.398.0
Oct 28MIA117–12946-9616-389-14159109.3120.6107.0
Oct 26@HOU110–12042-9811-3915-211313105.8114.3104.5
Oct 24HOU114–12143-9613-4915-211317115.2121.099.5
Oct 23@CHA128–8148-9518-4514-221212128.081.0100.0
Oct 21@ORL132–12544-9014-3630-361711118.9114.7110.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
80%
pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner
ATL was the forecast favorite
9 pts
margin miss
forecast +12, actual +3 for ATL
139th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.22 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBKNATL
Final score121124
Field goals43–89 · 48.3%47–105 · 44.8%
Three-pointers14–42 · 33.3%12–46 · 26.1%
Free throws21–29 · 72.4%18–25 · 72.0%
Rebounds5340
Assists2930
Turnovers2212
Steals1011
Blocks19

How the model does with these teams over time: Brooklyn Nets · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)+12+3−9
Total points230245+15
BKN points109121+12
ATL points121124+3

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-07 16:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Brooklyn Nets

  • Out Egor Dëmin · Right Bone Bruise
  • Questionable Noah Clowney · Illness

Atlanta Hawks

  • Out Asa Newell
  • Out Henri Veesaar · Right ACLTear
  • Out Jock Landale · Left Hip Strain
  • Out Keshon Gilbert · Inflammation / Non-Surgical
  • Out Mouhamed Gueye · Left Foot Fracture

Recent form before this game

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 4 vs CHA W 114–104
Nov 2 at NYK L 90–103
Nov 1 at IND W 98–90
Oct 30 vs DET L 94–110
Oct 27 at BOS L 124–125

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 6 vs WAS W 139–132
Nov 4 at WAS W 120–105
Nov 2 at IND W 108–104
Oct 31 at NOP L 99–121
Oct 29 vs CLE W 114–111

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 3 2025-26 ATL at BKN ATL 141 – 107 BKN
Mar 12 2025-26 BKN at ATL BKN 97 – 108 ATL
Feb 22 2025-26 BKN at ATL BKN 104 – 115 ATL
Oct 29 2025-26 ATL at BKN ATL 117 – 112 BKN
Apr 10 2024-25 ATL at BKN ATL 133 – 109 BKN