2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies
Monday, March 3, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
ATL 4–0@MEM 4–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | 116 | 132 | +16 |
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) | 125 | 130 | +5 |
Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 9.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | ATL | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1437 | 1587 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +220 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −2.7 | +6.4 |
| Games played this season | 61 | 60 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 114.8 | 117.9 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 116.1 | 117.7 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 102.9 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 31.5 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingATL1437MEM1587
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
ATL1437
- Ended last season at 1453 → started this one at 1465
- First 51 games: −17.3
- Last 10 games: −10.3
- LSAS125–126−5.1
- WMIL115–110+7.0
- W@WAS125–111+7.9
- W@ORL112–106+8.9
- L@NYK148–149−1.6
- LORL108–114−11.1
- LDET143–148−6.5
- WMIA98–86+9.0
- L@MIA109–131−14.0
- LOKC119–135−4.8
MEM1587
- Ended last season at 1319 → started this one at 1364
- First 50 games: +253.0
- Last 10 games: −30.5
- W@TOR138–107+12.6
- LOKC112–125−10.1
- W@PHX119–112+6.6
- L@LAC114–128−14.5
- L@IND113–127−11.6
- W@ORL105–104+2.8
- L@CLE123–129−3.4
- WPHX151–148+2.2
- LNYK113–114−5.3
- LSAS128–130−9.8
Season scoring marginATL−2.7MEM+6.4
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
ATL−2.7
Scores 116.5, allows 119.2 over 61 games: −2.7 a game.
MEM+6.4
Scores 123.2, allows 116.7 over 60 games: +6.4 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10ATL114.8MEM117.9
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).
ATL114.8scored, +1.5 vs league
| Factor | ATL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.0% | 54.2% | +2.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.2% | −0.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.0% | 25.1% | +0.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.189 | 0.194 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | −1.3 |
MEM117.9scored, +4.7 vs league
| Factor | MEM | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.9% | 54.2% | −0.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.2% | 12.2% | +0.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 31.8% | 25.1% | +3.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.233 | 0.194 | +1.1 | |
| Everything else | +1.1 |
Defensive rating, last 10ATL116.1MEM117.7
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).
ATL116.1allowed, +2.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.1% | 54.2% | −4.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.0% | 12.2% | −0.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.1% | 25.1% | +1.8 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.214 | 0.194 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | +0.5 |
MEM117.7allowed, +4.5 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.2% | 54.2% | +0.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.7% | 12.2% | −3.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 27.2% | 25.1% | −1.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.197 | 0.194 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
Pace, last 10average 102.9
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
ATL 103.3 and MEM 102.4 → average 102.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingATL31.5MEM0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
ATL31.5pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georges Niang | 14.0 | 27.8 | 8 |
| Vít Krejčí | 9.0 | 25.0 | 4 |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 8.5 | 19.6 | 4 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-03-03 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
MEM0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-03-03 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestATL3 daysMEM2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
ATL3days
Last played Feb 28 against OKC.
MEM2days
Last played Mar 1 against SAS.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
ATL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28 | OKC | 119–135 | 43-88 | 15-36 | 18-23 | 19 | 10 | 110.2 | 125.0 | 108.0 |
| Feb 26 | @MIA | 109–131 | 41-81 | 12-32 | 15-19 | 15 | 9 | 116.0 | 139.4 | 94.0 |
| Feb 24 | MIA | 98–86 | 40-88 | 9-35 | 9-12 | 16 | 13 | 102.1 | 88.7 | 96.5 |
| Feb 23 | DET | 143–148 | 48-96 | 21-45 | 26-36 | 13 | 10 | 126.5 | 129.8 | 113.5 |
| Feb 20 | ORL | 108–114 | 39-100 | 11-35 | 19-28 | 9 | 16 | 109.1 | 115.2 | 99.0 |
| Feb 12 | @NYK | 148–149 | 55-110 | 14-38 | 24-35 | 12 | 19 | 126.5 | 127.4 | 106.0 |
| Feb 10 | @ORL | 112–106 | 38-77 | 12-32 | 24-28 | 16 | 6 | 110.9 | 107.1 | 100.0 |
| Feb 8 | @WAS | 125–111 | 47-97 | 18-44 | 13-17 | 11 | 8 | 117.9 | 103.7 | 106.5 |
| Feb 7 | MIL | 115–110 | 45-92 | 13-36 | 12-18 | 11 | 11 | 112.7 | 106.8 | 102.5 |
| Feb 5 | SAS | 125–126 | 48-91 | 16-42 | 13-18 | 20 | 8 | 115.7 | 117.8 | 107.5 |
MEM
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | SAS | 128–130 | 50-95 | 11-38 | 17-20 | 12 | 11 | 124.3 | 126.2 | 103.0 |
| Feb 28 | NYK | 113–114 | 44-94 | 4-31 | 21-22 | 18 | 19 | 111.9 | 110.7 | 102.0 |
| Feb 25 | PHX | 151–148 | 52-99 | 20-48 | 27-30 | 12 | 7 | 130.2 | 125.4 | 106.0 |
| Feb 23 | @CLE | 123–129 | 42-92 | 15-39 | 24-31 | 13 | 12 | 124.2 | 127.7 | 100.0 |
| Feb 21 | @ORL | 105–104 | 38-92 | 7-33 | 22-29 | 14 | 15 | 102.9 | 103.0 | 101.5 |
| Feb 20 | @IND | 113–127 | 41-99 | 12-39 | 19-22 | 13 | 12 | 110.8 | 123.3 | 102.5 |
| Feb 12 | @LAC | 114–128 | 44-89 | 18-36 | 8-15 | 21 | 9 | 108.6 | 120.8 | 105.5 |
| Feb 11 | @PHX | 119–112 | 43-100 | 12-39 | 21-27 | 13 | 20 | 112.3 | 106.7 | 105.5 |
| Feb 8 | OKC | 112–125 | 36-81 | 12-28 | 28-39 | 13 | 10 | 113.1 | 125.0 | 99.5 |
| Feb 5 | @TOR | 138–107 | 47-89 | 16-38 | 28-38 | 16 | 24 | 140.8 | 108.1 | 98.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | ATL | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 132 | 130 |
| Field goals | 55–96 · 57.3% | 47–93 · 50.5% |
| Three-pointers | 13–28 · 46.4% | 13–33 · 39.4% |
| Free throws | 9–17 · 52.9% | 23–25 · 92.0% |
| Rebounds | 32 | 43 |
| Assists | 35 | 36 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 19 |
| Steals | 12 | 7 |
| Blocks | 7 | 3 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Memphis Grizzlies
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (MEM) | +9 | −2 | −11 |
| Total points | 241 | 262 | +21 |
| ATL points | 116 | 132 | +16 |
| MEM points | 125 | 130 | +5 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 21 2024-25 | MEM at ATL | MEM 128 – 112 ATL |
| Mar 8 2023-24 | ATL at MEM | ATL 99 – 92 MEM |
| Dec 23 2023-24 | MEM at ATL | MEM 125 – 119 ATL |
| Mar 26 2022-23 | MEM at ATL | MEM 123 – 119 ATL |
| Dec 12 2022-23 | ATL at MEM | ATL 103 – 128 MEM |