The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 29

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Thursday, October 29, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

CLE 3–1@ATL 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CLE 47 percent, ATL 53 percent. CLE Cavaliers 47% proj. 114 · final 111 ATL Hawks · home 53% proj. 115 · final 114
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 114 111 −3
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home) 115 114 −1

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans ATL

  • Home court+2.1 ATLWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+1.0 CLEElo ATL 1548, CLE 1573; season margin ATL +2.0, CLE +2.7.
  • Recent form+0.5 ATLLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: ATL scores 109.8 and allows 116.9; CLE scores 108.1 and allows 114.5.
  • Rest and schedule+0.3 CLEATL 1 days of rest, CLE 1. ATL and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: ATL by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

ATL is 2–3, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 120, allowing 115). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.7% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 2.1 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.9, shooting defense −1.9. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE is 3–1, winning by 2 a game on average (scoring 120, allowing 118). Last season they were a +3 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −3, getting to the line +1.0. Their defense is close to league average on all four factors. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors ATL; left favors CLE.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −1.0, Recent form +0.5, Rest and schedule −0.3, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.0, giving +1.5 for ATL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −1.0 Recent form +0.5 Rest and schedule −0.3 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.0 Projected margin +1.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +1.5. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputCLEATLEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15731548 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +45 −0.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.7+2.0 −0.1
Games played this season 45 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.1109.8 +0.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.5116.9 −1.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.7 +0.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.0
Rest days 11 −0.2
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes −0.1
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueATL ptsCLE ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)116.9+0.29+1.68−1.39
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)108.1−0.04−1.03+1.00
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.79−0.07+0.86
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.27+0.56−0.83
Combined pace, last 1099.7+0.78+0.11+0.67
Elo gap incl. home court44.7−0.93−0.32−0.61
Games played (away)4.0+0.17+0.73−0.56
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)114.5+0.39−0.04+0.44
Elo rating (home)1548.2+0.04−0.26+0.30
Rest days (home)1.0−0.24+0.02−0.26
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.8−0.35−0.10−0.25
Season scoring margin (away)2.7−0.06+0.16−0.22
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.05+0.20
Season scoring margin (home)2.0+0.10−0.03+0.13
Back-to-back (home)1−0.09+0.03−0.12
Games played (home)5.0−0.08+0.04−0.11
Series pressure0.0+0.05−0.01+0.06
Rest days (away)1.0+0.05+0.01+0.04
Elo rating (away)1573.4+0.04±0.00+0.04
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1573ATL15480.3 pts toward CLE

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1573

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1598 → started this one at 1574
  2. This season's 4 games: −0.3
  • L@PHI106–114−7.9
  • WBKN125–121+1.3
  • WMIN127–125+4.3
  • WWAS121–111+2.0

ATL1548

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
  2. This season's 5 games: +22.0
  • W@ORL132–125+11.1
  • W@CHA128–81+48.4
  • LHOU114–121−10.8
  • L@HOU110–120−7.3
  • LMIA117–129−19.4
Season scoring marginCLE+2.7ATL+2.00.8 pts toward CLE

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+2.7

Scores 119.8, allows 117.8 over 4 games: +2.0 a game.

20% this season (+2.0) + 80% last season (+2.8) = +2.7

ATL+2.0

Scores 120.2, allows 115.2 over 5 games: +5.0 a game.

25% this season (+5.0) + 75% last season (+1.1) = +2.0

Offensive rating, last 10CLE108.1ATL109.80.7 pts toward ATL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CLE108.1scored, −6.5 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%54.5%−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)14.5%12.2%−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2450.210+1.0
Everything else−0.7

ATL109.8scored, −4.8 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.5%−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.210−0.6
Everything else+0.6
Defensive rating, last 10CLE114.5ATL116.91.0 pts toward CLE

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CLE114.5allowed, −0.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.5%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.2%26.1%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.210+0.2
Everything else+0.5

ATL116.9allowed, +2.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.8%54.5%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.2%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2430.210−0.9
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 99.70.7 pts toward ATL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 99.3 and ATL 100.2 → average 99.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCLE0.0ATL0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-29 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCLE1 daysATL1 days0.3 pts toward CLE

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 28 against WAS.

ATL1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 28 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28WAS121–11143-9114-3821-221315127.4119.494.0
Oct 26MIN127–12546-10218-4517-231213112.4112.6101.4
Oct 24BKN125–12140-7916-3829-38239116.8113.1107.0
Oct 22@PHI106–11439-877-2921-28211097.2103.6109.5
May 25NYK93–13032-7711-4018-2222691.2127.5102.0
May 23NYK108–12142-8412-4112-19179110.2124.797.5
May 21@NYK93–10931-809-3522-32813104.5122.589.0
May 19@NYK104–11536-9016-5016-23191196.3105.598.3
May 17@DET125–9443-8511-3428-441114125.094.0100.0
May 15DET94–11530-7712-3522-302016100.0122.394.0

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28MIA117–12946-9616-389-14159109.3120.6107.0
Oct 26@HOU110–12042-9811-3915-211313105.8114.3104.5
Oct 24HOU114–12143-9613-4915-211317115.2121.099.5
Oct 23@CHA128–8148-9518-4514-221212128.081.0100.0
Oct 21@ORL132–12544-9014-3630-361711118.9114.7110.0
Apr 30NYK89–14031-829-3518-23191189.0141.499.5
Apr 28@NYK97–12637-8313-4210-17105103.2134.094.0
Apr 25NYK98–11434-8310-4120-251812104.3121.394.0
Apr 23NYK109–10839-8613-3318-261613107.9106.9101.0
Apr 20@NYK107–10640-819-3018-23116116.3114.092.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner
ATL was the forecast favorite
2 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual +3 for ATL
52nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
125th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCLEATL
Final score111114
Field goals38–87 · 43.7%42–95 · 44.2%
Three-pointers13–42 · 31.0%17–43 · 39.5%
Free throws22–29 · 75.9%13–18 · 72.2%
Rebounds4553
Assists2634
Turnovers911
Steals34
Blocks53

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)+1+3+2
Total points229225−4
CLE points114111−3
ATL points115114−1

Recent form before this game

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs WAS W 121–111
Oct 26 vs MIN W 127–125
Oct 24 vs BKN W 125–121
Oct 22 at PHI L 106–114
May 25 vs NYK L 93–130

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs MIA L 117–129
Oct 26 at HOU L 110–120
Oct 24 vs HOU L 114–121
Oct 23 at CHA W 128–81
Oct 21 at ORL W 132–125

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 10 2025-26 CLE at ATL CLE 102 – 124 ATL
Apr 8 2025-26 ATL at CLE ATL 116 – 122 CLE
Nov 28 2025-26 CLE at ATL CLE 123 – 130 ATL
Nov 2 2025-26 ATL at CLE ATL 109 – 117 CLE
Jan 30 2024-25 ATL at CLE ATL 115 – 137 CLE