The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

ATL 0–0@ORL 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 44 percent, ORL 56 percent. ATL Hawks 44% proj. 111 · final 132 ORL Magic · home 56% proj. 113 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 111 132 +21
ORL Orlando Magic (home) 113 125 +12

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans ORL

  • Home court+2.1 ORLWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.5 ATLElo ORL 1538, ATL 1526; season margin ORL +0.5, ATL +1.1.
  • Recent form+2.3 ORLLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: ORL scores 106.5 and allows 107.6; ATL scores 107.5 and allows 120.0.

Together: ORL by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

ORL hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a ±0 team. Their offense shoots 49% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 8 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +4.

ATL hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +1 team. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers −1.2.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors ORL; left favors ATL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −2.5, Recent form +2.3, No playoff context +0.4, Player availability +0.1, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving +2.5 for ORL. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −2.5 Recent form +2.3 No playoff context +0.4 Player availability +0.1 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin +2.5
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +2.5. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputATLORLEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15261538 +0.4
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +82 −0.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.1+0.5 −0.2
Games played this season 00 −2.5
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.5106.5 −0.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.0107.6 +3.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.5 −0.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.1
Rest days 55 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueORL ptsATL ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)107.6−0.46−2.32+1.86
Games played (away)0.0+0.23+2.07−1.84
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)120.0+1.64+0.19+1.45
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)106.5−1.37−0.23−1.14
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.79−0.11+0.90
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.23+0.53−0.77
Games played (home)0.0+0.61+1.23−0.62
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)107.5−0.21−0.80+0.59
Combined pace, last 1098.5−1.60−1.14−0.46
Home series wins0.0+0.40+0.04+0.36
Elo gap incl. home court81.5−0.87−0.56−0.32
Elo rating (home)1537.7+0.06−0.25+0.30
Rest days (home)5.0+0.06−0.16+0.21
Rest days (away)5.0−0.22−0.07−0.15
Elo rating (away)1526.2+0.08−0.00+0.09
Season scoring margin (away)1.1−0.03+0.06−0.08
Season scoring margin (home)0.5+0.03+0.10−0.07
Series pressure0.0+0.08+0.05+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1526ORL15380.1 pts toward ORL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1526

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
  2. No games played yet this season.

ORL1538

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginATL+1.1ORL+0.52.6 pts toward ATL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL+1.1

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+1.1) = +1.1

ORL+0.5

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+0.5) = +0.5

Offensive rating, last 10ATL107.5ORL106.50.6 pts toward ATL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL107.5scored, −7.0 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%54.5%−4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1710.210−1.1
Everything else−0.8

ORL106.5scored, −8.1 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.0%54.5%−8.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%26.1%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2330.210+0.7
Everything else−0.5
Defensive rating, last 10ATL120.0ORL107.63.3 pts toward ORL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL120.0allowed, +5.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.6%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2340.210−0.7
Everything else−0.2

ORL107.6allowed, −7.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%54.5%+5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)14.7%12.2%+3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2430.210−0.9
Everything else−0.7
Pace, last 10average 98.50.5 pts toward ATL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 98.7 and ORL 98.3 → average 98.5 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingATL0.0ORL0.00.1 pts toward ORL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

ORL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestATL5 daysORL5 days0.1 pts toward ORL

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL5days

Last played Apr 30 against NYK (174 days, capped at 5).

ORL5days

Last played May 3 against DET (171 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 30NYK89–14031-829-3518-23191189.0141.499.5
Apr 28@NYK97–12637-8313-4210-17105103.2134.094.0
Apr 25NYK98–11434-8310-4120-251812104.3121.394.0
Apr 23NYK109–10839-8613-3318-261613107.9106.9101.0
Apr 20@NYK107–10640-819-3018-23116116.3114.092.5
Apr 18@NYK102–11338-8714-3712-19128103.0114.199.0
Apr 12@MIA117–14344-9317-4412-181613111.4137.5104.5
Apr 10CLE124–10245-9316-4418-251114121.6100.0102.0
Apr 8@CLE116–12247-9812-3410-151110110.5117.3104.5
Apr 6NYK105–10838-9516-4213-171419108.2113.796.0

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 3@DET94–11631-7510-3022-30139102.2126.192.0
May 1DET79–9327-789-3616-2110889.8105.788.0
Apr 29@DET109–11638-8017-3816-30168111.2120.897.0
Apr 27DET94–8830-929-3525-34101694.989.898.5
Apr 25DET113–10536-8915-3326-331414117.7109.496.0
Apr 22@DET83–9826-808-3223-32171383.899.099.0
Apr 19@DET112–10144-9010-3414-191211113.1103.198.5
Apr 12@BOS108–11336-9112-4324-301914102.9107.6105.0
Apr 10@CHI127–10349-9413-3716-241412118.795.4107.5
Apr 8MIN132–12051-9512-2918-231619130.7118.8101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
44%
pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner
the forecast favored ORL
9 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual −7 for ORL
37th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLORL
Final score132125
Field goals44–90 · 48.9%41–85 · 48.2%
Three-pointers14–36 · 38.9%13–40 · 32.5%
Free throws30–36 · 83.3%30–39 · 76.9%
Rebounds4239
Assists2830
Turnovers1720
Steals910
Blocks33

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)+2−7−9
Total points224257+33
ATL points111132+21
ORL points113125+12

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 30 vs NYK L 89–140
Apr 28 at NYK L 97–126
Apr 25 vs NYK L 98–114
Apr 23 vs NYK W 109–108
Apr 20 at NYK W 107–106

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
May 3 at DET L 94–116
May 1 vs DET L 79–93
Apr 29 at DET L 109–116
Apr 27 vs DET W 94–88
Apr 25 vs DET W 113–105

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 1 2025-26 ATL at ORL ATL 130 – 101 ORL
Mar 16 2025-26 ORL at ATL ORL 112 – 124 ATL
Nov 4 2025-26 ORL at ATL ORL 112 – 127 ATL
Oct 24 2025-26 ATL at ORL ATL 111 – 107 ORL
Apr 13 2024-25 ORL at ATL ORL 105 – 117 ATL