The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 25

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets

Friday, November 25, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

ATL 0–2@HOU 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 72 percent, HOU 28 percent. ATL Hawks 72% proj. 119 · final 122 HOU Rockets · home 28% proj. 110 · final 128
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 119 122 +3
HOU Houston Rockets (home) 110 128 +18

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLHOU
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15401337
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −133
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.5−7.5
Games played this season 1817
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.5107.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.8113.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.026.4
Rest days 25
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1540HOU1337

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1540

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 8 games: +5.2
  3. Last 10 games: +18.1
  • WNOP124–121+5.1
  • WMIL117–98+17.2
  • LUTA119–125−8.7
  • WPHI104–95+8.3
  • L@PHI109–121−8.4
  • W@MIL121–106+19.9
  • LBOS101–126−17.0
  • WTOR124–122+3.8
  • L@CLE102–114−8.3
  • WSAC115–106+6.2

HOU1337

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1311 → started this one at 1359
  2. First 7 games: −14.4
  3. Last 10 games: −6.8
  • L@LAC93–95−2.0
  • LLAC101–109−7.2
  • L@MIN117–129−3.8
  • W@ORL134–127+12.1
  • L@TOR109–116−2.1
  • L@NOP106–119−3.6
  • LLAC106–122−10.7
  • W@DAL101–92+22.7
  • LIND91–99−8.1
  • LGSW120–127−4.1
Season scoring marginATL+0.5HOU−7.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL+0.5

Scores 114.4, allows 113.9 over 18 games: +0.5 a game.

90% this season (+0.5) + 10% last season (+0.8) = +0.5

HOU−7.5

Scores 108.6, allows 116.0 over 17 games: −7.3 a game.

85% this season (−7.3) + 15% last season (−8.5) = −7.5

Offensive rating, last 10ATL108.5HOU107.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.7).

ATL108.5scored, −3.1 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.0%53.8%−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.8%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.4%23.8%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.208−0.3
Everything else+0.1

HOU107.8scored, −3.8 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%53.8%−3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)15.7%12.8%−4.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.5%23.8%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2390.208+0.9
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10ATL108.8HOU113.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.7).

ATL108.8allowed, −2.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%53.8%+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.8%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.1%23.8%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.208−0.6
Everything else−0.4

HOU113.4allowed, +1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%53.8%−1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.8%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%23.8%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2180.208−0.3
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 101.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 102.4 and HOU 99.9 → average 101.1 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingATL0.0HOU26.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

HOU26.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Alperen Sengun14.526.910
Eric Gordon11.930.010

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysHOU5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Nov 23 against SAC.

HOU5days

Last played Nov 20 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 23SAC115–10641-9211-3022-231310110.6102.9103.5
Nov 21@CLE102–11438-8711-3415-171610104.1115.298.5
Nov 19TOR124–12246-927-2525-321411109.7109.9101.4
Nov 16BOS101–12642-1017-3210-1391498.1124.8102.0
Nov 14@MIL121–10644-927-2026-30913119.8103.9101.5
Nov 12@PHI109–12140-896-2423-271812107.9119.8101.0
Nov 10PHI104–9539-886-2620-23181198.189.6106.0
Nov 9UTA119–12551-1098-289-111117114.4119.0104.5
Nov 7MIL117–9846-9911-2914-171212113.696.1102.5
Nov 5NOP124–12147-1039-3621-251312108.8107.1102.8

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 20GSW120–12741-9015-4523-271212117.6124.5102.0
Nov 18IND91–9929-866-2827-32171493.8102.197.0
Nov 16@DAL101–9235-7510-2221-24209103.193.998.0
Nov 14LAC106–12239-869-3019-311410105.0120.8101.0
Nov 12@NOP106–11940-7912-3614-182610105.0117.8101.0
Nov 9@TOR109–11637-849-3526-311616112.4118.497.5
Nov 7@ORL134–12746-8724-4818-252014132.7124.5101.5
Nov 5@MIN117–12940-8416-3821-312212113.6125.2103.0
Nov 2LAC101–10937-8811-3816-211916102.0111.298.5
Oct 31@LAC93–9534-888-2817-2313793.096.099.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
the forecast favored ATL
15 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual +6 for HOU
45th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
296th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.28 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLHOU
Final score122128
Field goals39–82 · 47.6%41–87 · 47.1%
Three-pointers15–39 · 38.5%12–35 · 34.3%
Free throws29–36 · 80.6%34–41 · 82.9%
Rebounds2859
Assists1425
Turnovers1321
Steals99
Blocks64

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)−9+6+15
Total points229250+21
ATL points119122+3
HOU points110128+18

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 23 vs SAC W 115–106
Nov 21 at CLE L 102–114
Nov 19 vs TOR W 124–122
Nov 16 vs BOS L 101–126
Nov 14 at MIL W 121–106

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 20 vs GSW L 120–127
Nov 18 vs IND L 91–99
Nov 16 at DAL W 101–92
Nov 14 vs LAC L 106–122
Nov 12 at NOP L 106–119

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 19 2022-23 HOU at ATL HOU 107 – 117 ATL
Apr 10 2021-22 ATL at HOU ATL 130 – 114 HOU
Dec 13 2021-22 HOU at ATL HOU 132 – 126 ATL