The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 3

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans

Sunday, November 3, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

ATL 0–0@NOP 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 31 percent, NOP 69 percent. ATL Hawks 31% proj. 111 · final 126 NOP Pelicans · home 69% proj. 118 · final 111
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 111 126 +15
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 118 111 −7

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 69% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLNOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14331514
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +151
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −3.4+0.7
Games played this season 66
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.2103.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 118.6113.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 18.025.5
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1433NOP1514

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1433

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1453 → started this one at 1465
  2. This season's 6 games: −31.4
  • WBKN120–116+4.2
  • WCHA125–120+3.6
  • L@OKC104–128−6.1
  • LWAS119–121−9.3
  • L@WAS120–133−15.5
  • LSAC115–123−8.3

NOP1514

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1553 → started this one at 1540
  2. This season's 6 games: −25.2
  • WCHI123–111+6.8
  • W@POR105–103+2.7
  • L@POR103–125−27.8
  • L@GSW106–124−8.1
  • L@GSW89–104−6.6
  • WIND125–118+7.8
Season scoring marginATL−3.4NOP+0.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL−3.4

Scores 117.2, allows 123.5 over 6 games: −6.3 a game.

30% this season (−6.3) + 70% last season (−2.2) = −3.4

NOP+0.7

Scores 108.5, allows 114.2 over 6 games: −5.7 a game.

30% this season (−5.7) + 70% last season (+3.5) = +0.7

Offensive rating, last 10ATL110.2NOP103.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

ATL110.2scored, −4.2 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.7%−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%11.5%−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%24.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2410.194+1.4
Everything else−0.3

NOP103.0scored, −11.4 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.8%54.7%−8.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%11.5%−3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.5%24.1%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1840.194−0.3
Everything else−0.6
Defensive rating, last 10ATL118.6NOP113.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

ATL118.6allowed, +4.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.1%54.7%−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%11.5%+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%24.1%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2300.194−1.0
Everything else−0.4

NOP113.3allowed, −1.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.7%−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%11.5%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%24.1%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1610.194+0.9
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 100.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 102.5 and NOP 97.8 → average 100.1 (league 2023-24: 98.8)

Rotation points missingATL18.0NOP25.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL18.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
De'Andre Hunter18.029.52

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-03 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

NOP25.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
CJ McCollum18.834.24
Herbert Jones6.828.34

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-03 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysNOP2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Nov 1 against SAC.

NOP2days

Last played Nov 1 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1SAC115–12341-9219-5014-18138110.6118.3104.0
Oct 30@WAS120–13345-9512-3918-211512113.2125.5106.0
Oct 28WAS119–12139-8115-4026-36166112.3115.2105.5
Oct 27@OKC104–12836-9110-3122-291917103.0125.5101.5
Oct 25CHA125–12039-8114-3833-38137119.0116.5104.0
Oct 23BKN120–11639-809-2833-461612114.3110.5105.0
Apr 14@IND115–15739-8912-3625-27159107.5146.7107.0
Apr 12@MIN106–10940-909-3017-25149105.0105.8102.0
Apr 10CHA114–11543-8218-4010-16167116.3117.398.0
Apr 9MIA111–11745-11310-4611-141517100.9104.591.9

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1IND125–11849-10112-3115-19615127.6120.498.0
Oct 30@GSW89–10433-9011-3612-20141894.7111.893.5
Oct 29@GSW106–12440-749-2217-24239110.4129.296.0
Oct 27@POR103–12538-888-2919-241515106.2128.997.0
Oct 25@POR105–10336-8612-3221-311411102.9101.0102.0
Oct 23CHI123–11145-9714-3719-21117113.9102.8108.0
Apr 29OKC89–9732-858-3417-20181289.999.098.5
Apr 27OKC85–10632-849-3212-14201186.7108.298.0
Apr 24@OKC92–12433-737-2619-21178100.0131.993.0
Apr 21@OKC92–9437-9611-397-9141897.9100.094.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
31%
pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner
the forecast favored NOP
22 pts
margin miss
forecast +7, actual −15 for NOP
79th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
145th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.17 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLNOP
Final score126111
Field goals50–88 · 56.8%39–90 · 43.3%
Three-pointers15–36 · 41.7%16–38 · 42.1%
Free throws11–12 · 91.7%17–20 · 85.0%
Rebounds4143
Assists2922
Turnovers1618
Steals106
Blocks33

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)+7−15−22
Total points229237+8
ATL points111126+15
NOP points118111−7

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
ATL33253533–126
NOP30292626–111

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 vs SAC L 115–123
Oct 30 at WAS L 120–133
Oct 28 vs WAS L 119–121
Oct 27 at OKC L 104–128
Oct 25 vs CHA W 125–120

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 vs IND W 125–118
Oct 30 at GSW L 89–104
Oct 29 at GSW L 106–124
Oct 27 at POR L 103–125
Oct 25 at POR W 105–103

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 10 2023-24 NOP at ATL NOP 116 – 103 ATL
Nov 4 2023-24 ATL at NOP ATL 123 – 105 NOP
Feb 7 2022-23 ATL at NOP ATL 107 – 116 NOP
Nov 5 2022-23 NOP at ATL NOP 121 – 124 ATL
Mar 20 2021-22 NOP at ATL NOP 117 – 112 ATL