The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 31

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors

Monday, October 31, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

ATL 0–0@TOR 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 47 percent, TOR 53 percent. ATL Hawks 47% proj. 106 · final 109 TOR Raptors · home 53% proj. 107 · final 139
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 106 109 +3
TOR Toronto Raptors (home) 107 139 +32

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLTOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15211538
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +87
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.8+0.7
Games played this season 66
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.1108.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.4111.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1521TOR1538

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1521

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. This season's 6 games: +4.6
  • WHOU117–107+3.7
  • WORL108–98+3.9
  • LCHA109–126−17.7
  • W@DET118–113+5.6
  • W@DET136–112+14.2
  • L@MIL115–123−5.1

TOR1538

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1563 → started this one at 1547
  2. This season's 6 games: −8.9
  • WCLE108–105+3.4
  • L@BKN105–109−6.0
  • L@MIA109–112−3.6
  • W@MIA98–90+13.2
  • WPHI119–109+7.7
  • LPHI90–112−23.6
Season scoring marginATL+1.8TOR+0.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL+1.8

Scores 117.2, allows 113.2 over 6 games: +4.0 a game.

30% this season (+4.0) + 70% last season (+0.8) = +1.8

TOR+0.7

Scores 104.8, allows 106.2 over 6 games: −1.3 a game.

30% this season (−1.3) + 70% last season (+1.6) = +0.7

Offensive rating, last 10ATL112.1TOR108.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

ATL112.1scored, +0.8 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%53.3%+0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%11.8%−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.5%23.0%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.196−0.1
Everything else+1.4

TOR108.5scored, −2.8 vs league

FactorTORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.9%53.3%−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)10.1%11.8%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.8%23.0%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1960.196±0.0
Everything else−1.1
Defensive rating, last 10ATL113.4TOR111.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

ATL113.4allowed, +2.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.8%53.3%+2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%11.8%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.6%23.0%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.196−0.8
Everything else−1.8

TOR111.7allowed, +0.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%53.3%−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.1%11.8%+3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.1%23.0%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2340.196−1.1
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 96.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 98.0 and TOR 94.7 → average 96.3 (league 2021-22: 98.6)

Rotation points missingATL0.0TOR0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

TOR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-31 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysTOR3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Oct 29 against MIL.

TOR3days

Last played Oct 28 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 29@MIL115–12345-9413-2912-151212113.9121.8101.0
Oct 28@DET136–11255-9712-2914-18610138.8113.198.5
Oct 26@DET118–11345-918-2220-251210118.0115.399.0
Oct 23CHA109–12639-958-3523-281216107.9124.8101.0
Oct 21ORL108–9840-8913-3115-16179105.997.0101.5
Oct 19HOU117–10745-907-2520-2494110.4100.9106.0
Apr 26@MIA94–9731-748-2524-281912104.4105.491.0
Apr 24MIA86–11030-7515-4211-20151196.6126.488.0
Apr 22MIA111–11041-8012-3217-21115119.4115.894.0
Apr 19@MIA105–11541-8712-4011-14197106.1113.9100.0

TOR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28PHI90–11233-869-3915-24171597.8120.492.5
Oct 26PHI119–10946-8416-3711-1496126.6117.293.5
Oct 24@MIA98–9034-8614-3216-201210101.092.897.0
Oct 22@MIA109–11237-8714-3921-2868114.7117.995.0
Oct 21@BKN105–10941-8411-2812-18138109.4114.795.5
Oct 19CLE108–10536-8613-3023-321312109.1106.199.0
Apr 28PHI97–13235-897-3520-25915102.1140.494.5
Apr 25@PHI103–8842-828-3111-1383108.493.694.5
Apr 23PHI110–10237-888-3428-351113111.1103.099.0
Apr 20PHI101–10438-8613-3512-18109105.2110.686.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave TOR, the winner
TOR was the forecast favorite
29 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual +30 for TOR
500th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
32nd
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLTOR
Final score109139
Field goals39–84 · 46.4%46–92 · 50.0%
Three-pointers11–29 · 37.9%14–34 · 41.2%
Free throws20–25 · 80.0%33–40 · 82.5%
Rebounds3744
Assists2825
Turnovers186
Steals113
Blocks49

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)+1+30+29
Total points213248+35
ATL points106109+3
TOR points107139+32

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 29 at MIL L 115–123
Oct 28 at DET W 136–112
Oct 26 at DET W 118–113
Oct 23 vs CHA L 109–126
Oct 21 vs ORL W 108–98

Toronto Raptors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs PHI L 90–112
Oct 26 vs PHI W 119–109
Oct 24 at MIA W 98–90
Oct 22 at MIA L 109–112
Oct 21 at BKN L 105–109

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 5 2021-22 ATL at TOR ATL 108 – 118 TOR
Feb 26 2021-22 TOR at ATL TOR 100 – 127 ATL
Feb 4 2021-22 ATL at TOR ATL 114 – 125 TOR
Jan 31 2021-22 TOR at ATL TOR 106 – 100 ATL