2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers
Friday, February 20, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET
DEN 0–3@POR 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN Denver Nuggets | 118 | 157 | +39 |
| POR Portland Trail Blazers (home) | 117 | 103 | −14 |
Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | DEN | POR |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1552 | 1493 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +10 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +3.9 | −2.0 |
| Games played this season | 56 | 56 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 119.7 | 113.8 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 118.1 | 117.5 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.0 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 18.2 | 17.8 |
| Rest days | 1 | 5 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingDEN1552POR1493
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
DEN1552
- Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
- First 46 games: −34.6
- Last 10 games: −3.2
- LDET107–109−4.8
- WBKN107–103+1.7
- WLAC122–109+9.3
- LOKC111–121−7.8
- L@DET121–124−3.0
- L@NYK127–134−5.5
- W@CHI136–120+11.7
- LCLE117–119−4.9
- WMEM122–116+3.2
- L@LAC114–115−3.1
POR1493
- Ended last season at 1504 → started this one at 1503
- First 46 games: +4.8
- Last 10 games: −14.9
- L@BOS94–102−3.8
- L@WAS111–115−10.1
- L@NYK97–127−12.7
- LCLE111–130−14.0
- LPHX125–130−6.3
- WMEM135–115+11.4
- WMEM122–115+5.3
- WPHI135–118+13.9
- L@MIN109–133−9.7
- W@UTA135–119+11.1
Season scoring marginDEN+3.9POR−2.0
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
DEN+3.9
Scores 120.2, allows 116.3 over 56 games: +3.9 a game.
POR−2.0
Scores 116.3, allows 118.3 over 56 games: −2.0 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10DEN119.7POR113.8
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).
DEN119.7scored, +5.1 vs league
| Factor | DEN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.7% | 54.4% | +3.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 12.2% | +0.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.283 | 0.211 | +2.1 | |
| Everything else | −0.9 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
POR113.8scored, −0.7 vs league
| Factor | POR | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.0% | 54.4% | +0.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 16.0% | 12.2% | −5.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.171 | 0.211 | −1.1 | |
| Everything else | +5.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10DEN118.1POR117.5
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.5).
DEN118.1allowed, +3.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.2% | 54.4% | +0.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.2% | 12.2% | −4.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.207 | 0.211 | +0.1 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
POR117.5allowed, +2.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.9% | 54.4% | −3.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.5% | 12.2% | +0.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.200 | 0.211 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | +0.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 100.0
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
DEN 97.2 and POR 102.9 → average 100.0 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.3)
Rotation points missingDEN18.2POR17.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
DEN18.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Watson | 18.2 | 35.8 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-20 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
POR17.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shaedon Sharpe | 17.8 | 29.0 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-20 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
RestDEN1 daysPOR5 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
DEN1day, back-to-back
Last played Feb 19 against LAC.
POR5days
Last played Feb 12 against UTA (8 days, capped at 5).
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
DEN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19 | @LAC | 114–115 | 39-86 | 13-40 | 23-31 | 17 | – | 107.5 | 107.5 | 106.5 |
| Feb 11 | MEM | 122–116 | 43-81 | 10-22 | 26-32 | 14 | – | 124.5 | 117.2 | 98.5 |
| Feb 9 | CLE | 117–119 | 38-85 | 13-40 | 28-35 | 13 | – | 117.0 | 121.4 | 99.0 |
| Feb 7 | @CHI | 136–120 | 49-85 | 16-33 | 22-33 | 13 | – | 136.0 | 117.6 | 101.0 |
| Feb 4 | @NYK | 127–134 | 46-105 | 13-50 | 22-27 | 14 | – | 114.4 | 120.7 | 91.9 |
| Feb 3 | @DET | 121–124 | 37-83 | 10-30 | 37-43 | 10 | – | 119.8 | 124.0 | 100.5 |
| Feb 1 | OKC | 111–121 | 39-79 | 16-35 | 17-24 | 17 | – | 112.1 | 122.2 | 99.0 |
| Jan 30 | LAC | 122–109 | 40-73 | 16-28 | 26-32 | 12 | – | 129.8 | 116.0 | 94.0 |
| Jan 29 | BKN | 107–103 | 38-80 | 13-26 | 18-25 | 6 | – | 121.6 | 118.4 | 87.5 |
| Jan 27 | DET | 107–109 | 40-84 | 10-29 | 17-23 | 15 | – | 113.8 | 116.0 | 94.0 |
POR
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12 | @UTA | 135–119 | 46-90 | 18-46 | 25-33 | 19 | – | 127.4 | 112.3 | 106.0 |
| Feb 11 | @MIN | 109–133 | 40-94 | 16-45 | 13-16 | 25 | – | 99.1 | 123.1 | 109.0 |
| Feb 9 | PHI | 135–118 | 47-97 | 22-54 | 19-25 | 18 | – | 132.4 | 115.7 | 102.0 |
| Feb 7 | MEM | 122–115 | 46-95 | 21-51 | 9-14 | 17 | – | 118.4 | 112.7 | 102.5 |
| Feb 6 | MEM | 135–115 | 49-90 | 17-42 | 20-21 | 18 | – | 129.8 | 110.6 | 104.0 |
| Feb 3 | PHX | 125–130 | 47-95 | 18-52 | 13-18 | 17 | – | 127.6 | 134.0 | 97.5 |
| Feb 1 | CLE | 111–130 | 44-98 | 14-44 | 9-12 | 22 | – | 106.7 | 127.5 | 103.0 |
| Jan 30 | @NYK | 97–127 | 35-81 | 13-43 | 14-19 | 20 | – | 97.0 | 127.0 | 100.0 |
| Jan 27 | @WAS | 111–115 | 42-109 | 14-38 | 13-23 | 20 | – | 103.7 | 107.5 | 107.0 |
| Jan 26 | @BOS | 94–102 | 32-78 | 10-40 | 20-30 | 18 | – | 95.9 | 104.1 | 98.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | DEN | POR |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 157 | 103 |
| Field goals | 55–96 · 57.3% | 35–86 · 40.7% |
| Three-pointers | 21–41 · 51.2% | 15–47 · 31.9% |
| Free throws | 26–32 · 81.3% | 18–29 · 62.1% |
| Rebounds | 60 | 36 |
| Assists | 41 | 25 |
| Turnovers | 15 | 18 |
| Steals | 12 | 8 |
| Blocks | 3 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Portland Trail Blazers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (POR) | −1 | −54 | −53 |
| Total points | 235 | 260 | +25 |
| DEN points | 118 | 157 | +39 |
| POR points | 117 | 103 | −14 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 2025-26 | DEN at POR | DEN 107 – 109 POR |
| Mar 21 2024-25 | DEN at POR | DEN 109 – 128 POR |
| Feb 12 2024-25 | POR at DEN | POR 121 – 132 DEN |
| Feb 10 2024-25 | POR at DEN | POR 117 – 146 DEN |
| Dec 19 2024-25 | DEN at POR | DEN 124 – 126 POR |