The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 30

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers

Wednesday, October 30, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 0–0@LAC 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: POR 25 percent, LAC 75 percent. POR Trail Blazers 25% proj. 103 · final 106 LAC Clippers · home 75% proj. 113 · final 105
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
POR Portland Trail Blazers 103 106 +3
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home) 113 105 −8

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPORLAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13561527
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +242
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.7+2.7
Games played this season 43
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 104.1107.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 114.3111.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1356LAC1527

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1356

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
  2. This season's 4 games: +9.0
  • LGSW104–140−11.8
  • LNOP103–105−2.7
  • WNOP125–103+27.8
  • L@SAC98–111−4.3

LAC1527

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1508 → started this one at 1506
  2. This season's 3 games: +21.4
  • LPHX113–116−5.8
  • W@DEN109–104+11.7
  • W@GSW112–104+15.5
Season scoring marginPOR−8.7LAC+2.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−8.7

Scores 107.5, allows 114.8 over 4 games: −7.3 a game.

20% this season (−7.3) + 80% last season (−9.0) = −8.7

LAC+2.7

Scores 111.3, allows 108.0 over 3 games: +3.3 a game.

15% this season (+3.3) + 85% last season (+2.6) = +2.7

Offensive rating, last 10POR104.1LAC107.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

POR104.1scored, −10.4 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)46.0%54.7%−13.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%11.5%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.4%24.1%+3.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1890.194−0.1
Everything else+1.1

LAC107.8scored, −6.6 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.7%54.7%−6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%11.5%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.8%24.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.194+0.3
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10POR114.3LAC111.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

POR114.3allowed, −0.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.7%+1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%11.5%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%24.1%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.194−1.1
Everything else+0.4

LAC111.3allowed, −3.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.7%+2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%11.5%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%24.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.194−0.6
Everything else+1.9
Pace, last 10average 97.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 98.8 and LAC 96.1 → average 97.4 (league 2023-24: 98.8)

Rotation points missingPOR0.0LAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-10-30 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-10-30 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysLAC3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Oct 28 against SAC.

LAC3days

Last played Oct 27 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28@SAC98–11135-834-2224-301712100.0114.497.5
Oct 27NOP125–10343-9314-3525-321622128.9106.297.0
Oct 25NOP103–10537-9013-3716-201910101.0102.9102.0
Oct 23GSW104–14036-928-3424-30171396.3128.4108.5
Apr 14@SAC82–12131-987-4513-17172382.8122.299.0
Apr 12HOU107–11637-9512-3521-29716109.2118.498.0
Apr 11GSW92–10035-978-3414-171220101.1108.791.5
Apr 9NOP100–11040-8513-387-82113104.2112.297.0
Apr 7@BOS107–12440-10214-3813-131422107.0124.0100.0
Apr 5@WAS108–10241-949-2917-241212110.2105.297.5

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 27@GSW112–10442-9010-3218-231814108.7100.0103.5
Oct 26@DEN109–10440-8212-3317-211610114.7107.296.0
Oct 23PHX113–11642-928-2921-302113100.0102.7102.3
May 3@DAL101–11434-828-3125-32916112.2126.790.0
May 1DAL93–12333-879-3518-21131498.9130.994.0
Apr 28@DAL116–11143-8018-2912-18125126.1116.893.5
Apr 26@DAL90–10132-7010-2916-20198101.1112.289.5
Apr 23DAL93–9632-878-3021-26814101.1104.392.0
Apr 21DAL109–9740-8718-3611-131210117.2104.393.0
Apr 14HOU105–11641-1048-3715-17121698.1108.4107.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
25%
pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner
the forecast favored LAC
11 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −1 for LAC
33rd
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
517th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.39 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPORLAC
Final score106105
Field goals41–92 · 44.6%41–90 · 45.6%
Three-pointers14–33 · 42.4%13–36 · 36.1%
Free throws10–12 · 83.3%10–18 · 55.6%
Rebounds4749
Assists1926
Turnovers1213
Steals910
Blocks65

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)+10−1−11
Total points216211−5
POR points103106+3
LAC points113105−8

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
POR24302824–106
LAC26243520–105

Recent form before this game

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 at SAC L 98–111
Oct 27 vs NOP W 125–103
Oct 25 vs NOP L 103–105
Oct 23 vs GSW L 104–140
Apr 14 at SAC L 82–121

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 27 at GSW W 112–104
Oct 26 at DEN W 109–104
Oct 23 vs PHX L 113–116
May 3 at DAL L 101–114
May 1 vs DAL L 93–123

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 22 2023-24 LAC at POR LAC 125 – 117 POR
Mar 20 2023-24 LAC at POR LAC 116 – 103 POR
Dec 11 2023-24 POR at LAC POR 127 – 132 LAC
Oct 25 2023-24 POR at LAC POR 111 – 123 LAC
Apr 8 2022-23 POR at LAC POR 125 – 136 LAC