The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 11

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Thursday, January 11, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 3–1@OKC 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: POR 17 percent, OKC 83 percent. POR Trail Blazers 17% proj. 109 · final 77 OKC Thunder · home 83% proj. 126 · final 139
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
POR Portland Trail Blazers 109 77 −32
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) 126 139 +13

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 83% win probability, projected margin 17.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPOROKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13251643
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +388
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −7.9+7.6
Games played this season 3636
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.2125.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.7117.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 18.00.0
Rest days 21
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1325OKC1643

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1325

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1315 → started this one at 1362
  2. First 26 games: −25.1
  3. Last 10 games: −11.8
  • LWAS117–118−4.8
  • L@GSW106–126−4.5
  • WSAC130–113+22.2
  • LSAS105–118−19.3
  • WSAS134–128+5.0
  • L@PHX88–109−5.6
  • L@DAL97–126−8.1
  • L@DAL103–139−8.8
  • W@BKN134–127+15.8
  • L@NYK84–112−3.7

OKC1643

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1513 → started this one at 1510
  2. First 26 games: +98.4
  3. Last 10 games: +34.3
  • LLAL120–129−16.5
  • WMIN129–106+16.1
  • WNYK129–120+6.6
  • W@DEN119–93+27.7
  • WBKN124–108+4.6
  • WBOS127–123+6.4
  • L@ATL138–141−7.8
  • L@BKN115–124−14.8
  • W@WAS136–128+3.0
  • W@MIA128–120+9.0
Season scoring marginPOR−7.9OKC+7.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−7.9

Scores 108.3, allows 116.2 over 36 games: −7.9 a game.

OKC+7.6

Scores 122.3, allows 114.8 over 36 games: +7.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR108.2OKC125.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

POR108.2scored, −6.9 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.3%54.7%−6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%11.7%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.0%24.6%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1890.205−0.5
Everything else+1.2

OKC125.0scored, +9.9 vs league

FactorOKCLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)63.2%54.7%+12.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%11.7%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.3%24.6%−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1760.205−0.8
Everything else−2.0
Defensive rating, last 10POR119.7OKC117.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

POR119.7allowed, +4.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.7%54.7%−4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%11.7%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.7%24.6%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2320.205−0.8
Everything else+1.7

OKC117.7allowed, +2.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.7%+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%11.7%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.7%24.6%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2620.205−1.7
Everything else−1.2
Pace, last 10average 100.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 100.5 and OKC 101.2 → average 100.8 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingPOR18.0OKC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR18.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Deandre Ayton18.031.92

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-11 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-11 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysOKC1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Jan 9 against NYK.

OKC1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 10 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 9@NYK84–11233-866-2912-1815888.4116.795.5
Jan 7@BKN134–12745-9520-3824-3096125.2118.796.9
Jan 5@DAL103–13939-9513-4012-17181094.5127.5109.0
Jan 3@DAL97–12634-8713-4016-2222693.3121.2104.0
Jan 1@PHX88–10933-808-3014-1918587.1107.9101.0
Dec 29SAS134–12848-9516-2722-271414130.1123.1103.5
Dec 28SAS105–11835-10111-3624-321310104.0118.0100.5
Dec 26SAC130–11349-9816-4016-20716134.0117.796.5
Dec 23@GSW106–12638-8413-3517-25118108.2127.398.5
Dec 21WAS117–11843-9514-3017-231520117.0119.299.5

OKC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 10@MIA128–12051-8614-3312-16124128.0118.8100.5
Jan 8@WAS136–12852-8814-2818-241410132.0125.5102.5
Jan 5@BKN115–12445-849-3116-24137113.9124.0100.5
Jan 3@ATL138–14150-9118-3620-26139129.0131.8107.0
Jan 2BOS127–12348-9118-4013-171010127.0124.299.5
Dec 31BKN124–10845-8318-3316-20134122.8104.9102.0
Dec 29@DEN119–9346-9112-3515-161110119.093.0100.0
Dec 27NYK129–12049-9014-3217-2243127.7120.0100.5
Dec 26MIN129–10649-8118-3913-16113127.7106.0100.5
Dec 23LAL120–12946-9513-4115-19911122.4129.099.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
83%
pregame chance the forecast gave OKC, the winner
OKC was the forecast favorite
45 pts
margin miss
forecast +17, actual +62 for OKC
1301st
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
2nd
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.19 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPOROKC
Final score77139
Field goals28–101 · 27.7%53–93 · 57.0%
Three-pointers11–49 · 22.4%14–35 · 40.0%
Free throws10–16 · 62.5%19–22 · 86.4%
Rebounds4259
Assists1641
Turnovers912
Steals86
Blocks88

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)+17+62+45
Total points235216−19
POR points10977−32
OKC points126139+13

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
POR24151721–77
OKC36394321–139

Recent form before this game

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Jan 9 at NYK L 84–112
Jan 7 at BKN W 134–127
Jan 5 at DAL L 103–139
Jan 3 at DAL L 97–126
Jan 1 at PHX L 88–109

Oklahoma City Thunder

DateOpponentResult
Jan 10 at MIA W 128–120
Jan 8 at WAS W 136–128
Jan 5 at BKN L 115–124
Jan 3 at ATL L 138–141
Jan 2 vs BOS W 127–123

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 19 2023-24 OKC at POR OKC 134 – 91 POR
Mar 26 2022-23 OKC at POR OKC 118 – 112 POR
Feb 10 2022-23 OKC at POR OKC 138 – 129 POR
Dec 21 2022-23 POR at OKC POR 98 – 101 OKC
Dec 19 2022-23 POR at OKC POR 121 – 123 OKC