The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 10

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers

Sunday, November 10, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 1–0@POR 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 43 percent, POR 57 percent. MEM Grizzlies 43% proj. 114 · final 134 POR Trail Blazers · home 57% proj. 116 · final 89
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 114 134 +20
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home) 116 89 −27

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 57% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMEMPOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14351371
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.6−8.4
Games played this season 1010
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.3108.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.4115.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 45.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1435POR1371

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1435

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1319 → started this one at 1364
  2. This season's 10 games: +70.7
  • W@UTA126–124+6.8
  • L@HOU108–128−6.9
  • WORL124–111+17.8
  • LCHI123–126−5.0
  • LBKN106–119−12.9
  • WMIL122–99+22.7
  • W@PHI124–107+24.4
  • L@BKN104–106−3.4
  • WLAL131–114+18.1
  • WWAS128–104+9.1

POR1371

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
  2. This season's 10 games: +24.5
  • LGSW104–140−11.8
  • LNOP103–105−2.7
  • WNOP125–103+27.8
  • L@SAC98–111−4.3
  • W@LAC106–105+8.0
  • LOKC114–137−6.7
  • L@PHX97–103−1.9
  • W@NOP118–100+28.1
  • L@SAS105–118−7.5
  • L@MIN102–127−4.5
Season scoring marginMEM−0.6POR−8.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−0.6

Scores 119.6, allows 113.8 over 10 games: +5.8 a game.

50% this season (+5.8) + 50% last season (−7.0) = −0.6

POR−8.4

Scores 107.2, allows 114.9 over 10 games: −7.7 a game.

50% this season (−7.7) + 50% last season (−9.0) = −8.4

Offensive rating, last 10MEM116.3POR108.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

MEM116.3scored, +3.6 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.5%53.9%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.3%−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%24.6%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.205+0.1
Everything else+1.4

POR108.5scored, −4.2 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.8%53.9%−6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.3%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.0%24.6%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1990.205−0.2
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10MEM111.4POR115.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

MEM111.4allowed, −1.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%53.9%+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.3%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%24.6%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.205−0.1
Everything else+0.2

POR115.5allowed, +2.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%53.9%−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.3%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%24.6%−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.205+0.4
Everything else±0.0
Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 102.5 and POR 99.3 → average 100.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingMEM45.0POR0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM45.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ja Morant20.627.88
Desmond Bane18.826.55
Marcus Smart5.619.85

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-10 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-10 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysPOR2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Nov 8 against WAS.

POR2days

Last played Nov 8 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 8WAS128–10446-9714-4322-251713121.999.0105.0
Nov 6LAL131–11448-9317-3418-231812127.2111.8102.5
Nov 4@BKN104–10643-918-3010-131413110.6115.293.0
Nov 2@PHI124–10748-8712-2716-211611124.0108.199.5
Oct 31MIL122–9943-828-2828-31167116.296.1104.0
Oct 30BKN106–11938-818-2722-292212107.1120.299.0
Oct 28CHI123–12651-11114-437-131018118.3120.0104.5
Oct 26ORL124–11146-8613-3419-24186118.1106.7104.5
Oct 25@HOU108–12838-9110-2822-361714100.0117.4108.5
Oct 23@UTA126–12443-9117-4523-321213120.0119.2104.5

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 8@MIN102–12739-916-2518-24161299.0122.1103.5
Nov 7@SAS105–11841-869-3214-221414110.5125.594.5
Nov 4@NOP118–10046-8410-2916-241111128.3106.493.0
Nov 2@PHX97–10337-11114-439-1161495.1100.0102.5
Nov 1OKC114–13739-8315-3521-311911114.0137.0100.0
Oct 30@LAC106–10541-9214-3310-121212111.6111.794.5
Oct 28@SAC98–11135-834-2224-301712100.0114.497.5
Oct 27NOP125–10343-9314-3525-321622128.9106.297.0
Oct 25NOP103–10537-9013-3716-201910101.0102.9102.0
Oct 23GSW104–14036-928-3424-30171396.3128.4108.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
43%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
the forecast favored POR
47 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual −45 for POR
281st
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
3rd
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.84 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMPOR
Final score13489
Field goals47–85 · 55.3%34–100 · 34.0%
Three-pointers16–43 · 37.2%4–42 · 9.5%
Free throws24–28 · 85.7%17–21 · 81.0%
Rebounds5143
Assists3218
Turnovers2023
Steals159
Blocks133

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (POR)+2−45−47
Total points230223−7
MEM points114134+20
POR points11689−27

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MEM31334228–134
POR17272421–89

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Nov 8 vs WAS W 128–104
Nov 6 vs LAL W 131–114
Nov 4 at BKN L 104–106
Nov 2 at PHI W 124–107
Oct 31 vs MIL W 122–99

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Nov 8 at MIN L 102–127
Nov 7 at SAS L 105–118
Nov 4 at NOP W 118–100
Nov 2 at PHX L 97–103
Nov 1 vs OKC L 114–137

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 2 2023-24 POR at MEM POR 107 – 100 MEM
Mar 1 2023-24 POR at MEM POR 122 – 92 MEM
Nov 5 2023-24 MEM at POR MEM 112 – 100 POR
Nov 3 2023-24 MEM at POR MEM 113 – 115 POR
Apr 4 2022-23 POR at MEM POR 109 – 119 MEM