The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

PHX 0–0@POR 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHX 47 percent, POR 53 percent. PHX Suns 47% proj. 113 · final 83 POR Trail Blazers · home 53% proj. 114 · final 124
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHX Phoenix Suns 113 83 −30
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home) 114 124 +10

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans POR

  • Home court+2.1 PORWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.4 PHXElo POR 1511, PHX 1523; season margin POR −1.0, PHX +0.6.
  • Recent form+1.0 PORLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: POR scores 109.9 and allows 114.5; PHX scores 111.1 and allows 119.7.

Together: POR by 1, a 53% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

POR hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −1 team. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding +1.1. Their defense forces turnovers on 13.2% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone adds about 1.5 points per 100 possessions.

PHX hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +1 team. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.0. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.2% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.5.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors POR; left favors PHX.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −2.4, Recent form +1.0, No playoff context +0.4, Player availability +0.0, Rest and schedule +0.0, giving +1.1 for POR. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −2.4 Recent form +1.0 No playoff context +0.4 Player availability +0.0 Rest and schedule +0.0 Projected margin +1.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +1.1. The 53% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputPHXPOREffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15231511 +0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +58 −0.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.6−1.0 −0.4
Games played this season 00 −2.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.1109.9 −0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.7114.5 +2.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.1 −0.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.0
Rest days 55 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValuePOR ptsPHX ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)119.7+1.88+0.16+1.71
Games played (away)0.0+0.28+1.79−1.52
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.73−0.08+0.81
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.18+0.60−0.78
Combined pace, last 1097.1−3.10−2.51−0.59
Games played (home)0.0+0.74+1.19−0.45
Season scoring margin (home)-1.0−0.23+0.18−0.42
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)114.5+0.22−0.18+0.40
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)111.1−0.13+0.22−0.35
Home series wins0.0+0.37+0.04+0.34
Elo gap incl. home court57.5−0.77−0.45−0.32
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.9−0.16+0.03−0.19
Elo rating (home)1510.8−0.02−0.18+0.17
Rest days (away)5.0−0.23−0.07−0.16
Rest days (home)5.0+0.06−0.09+0.15
Elo rating (away)1523.3+0.12+0.04+0.09
Series pressure0.0+0.08+0.01+0.07
Season scoring margin (away)0.6+0.10+0.07+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHX1523POR15110.1 pts toward PHX

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHX1523

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. No games played yet this season.

POR1511

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginPHX+0.6POR−1.02.3 pts toward PHX

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHX+0.6

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+0.6) = +0.6

POR−1.0

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−1.0) = −1.0

Offensive rating, last 10PHX111.1POR109.90.5 pts toward PHX

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHX111.1scored, −3.5 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.5%54.5%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.2%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.210−0.8
Everything else+1.6

POR109.9scored, −4.7 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.0%54.5%−5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.4%26.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.210−0.6
Everything else−0.6
Defensive rating, last 10PHX119.7POR114.52.1 pts toward POR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

PHX119.7allowed, +5.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%54.5%−0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%12.2%−2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.5%26.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.210+0.1
Everything else−0.3

POR114.5allowed, −0.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.5%−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.2%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%26.1%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210−0.1
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 97.10.6 pts toward PHX

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHX 96.6 and POR 97.5 → average 97.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPHX0.0POR0.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestPHX5 daysPOR5 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHX5days

Last played Apr 27 against OKC (177 days, capped at 5).

POR5days

Last played Apr 28 against SAS (176 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 27OKC122–13148-9014-3912-161210125.8136.596.5
Apr 25OKC109–12138-8713-4120-23119111.2122.298.5
Apr 22@OKC107–12039-8511-3118-222115108.1120.099.5
Apr 19@OKC84–11929-8313-3913-18171390.3129.392.5
Apr 12@OKC135–10356-10120-413-61113137.8105.198.0
Apr 10@LAL73–10126-777-4014-21231781.1112.290.0
Apr 8DAL112–10742-9114-3514-171012117.9112.695.0
Apr 7HOU105–11932-757-3134-391810108.2121.497.5
Apr 5@CHI120–11045-8913-3217-221511117.6105.8103.0
Apr 2@CHA107–12742-9116-397-10128112.6132.395.5

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 28@SAS95–11433-9411-4718-2391499.0121.395.0
Apr 26SAS93–11432-8010-3119-2318793.0116.399.0
Apr 24SAS108–12037-9014-3820-291016109.1122.498.5
Apr 21@SAS106–10338-8913-3817-231515108.2106.297.5
Apr 19@SAS98–11139-9110-3810-12108102.1116.895.5
Apr 12SAC122–11047-10116-4612-151218123.2112.298.5
Apr 10LAC116–9737-8312-3930-351314122.1102.195.0
Apr 8@SAS101–11242-9312-375-101611100.0110.9101.0
Apr 6@DEN132–13742-8925-5223-281511125.7129.295.5
Apr 2NOP118–10642-9220-5114-181314116.8107.1100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner
POR was the forecast favorite
40 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual +41 for POR
52nd
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
2nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHXPOR
Final score83124
Field goals30–84 · 35.7%45–94 · 47.9%
Three-pointers6–32 · 18.8%19–47 · 40.4%
Free throws17–23 · 73.9%15–18 · 83.3%
Rebounds3956
Assists1432
Turnovers1517
Steals1012
Blocks61

How the model does with these teams over time: Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (POR)+1+41+40
Total points227207−20
PHX points11383−30
POR points114124+10

Recent form before this game

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Apr 27 vs OKC L 122–131
Apr 25 vs OKC L 109–121
Apr 22 at OKC L 107–120
Apr 19 at OKC L 84–119
Apr 12 at OKC W 135–103

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Apr 28 at SAS L 95–114
Apr 26 vs SAS L 93–114
Apr 24 vs SAS L 108–120
Apr 21 at SAS W 106–103
Apr 19 at SAS L 98–111

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 22 2025-26 POR at PHX POR 92 – 77 PHX
Feb 3 2025-26 PHX at POR PHX 130 – 125 POR
Nov 18 2025-26 PHX at POR PHX 127 – 110 POR
Feb 3 2024-25 PHX at POR PHX 119 – 121 POR
Feb 1 2024-25 PHX at POR PHX 108 – 127 POR