2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers
Friday, December 6, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded
UTA 1–1@POR 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Utah Jazz | 109 | 141 | +32 |
| POR Portland Trail Blazers (home) | 112 | 99 | −13 |
Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | UTA | POR |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1343 | 1383 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +110 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −10.3 | −8.1 |
| Games played this season | 21 | 22 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 112.0 | 108.0 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 120.8 | 115.6 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 98.9 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 22.3 | 16.1 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingUTA1343POR1383
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
UTA1343
- Ended last season at 1363 → started this one at 1397
- First 11 games: −34.9
- Last 10 games: −19.6
- L@SAC117–121−2.1
- L@LAC105–116−4.1
- L@LAL118–124−2.3
- L@SAS118–126−4.3
- WNYK121–106+22.6
- LSAS115–128−10.8
- LDEN103–122−8.6
- LDAL94–106−4.5
- LLAL104–105−2.7
- L@OKC106–133−2.8
POR1383
- Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
- First 12 games: +17.4
- Last 10 games: +18.8
- WMIN106–98+14.6
- WATL114–110+6.3
- L@OKC99–109−2.0
- L@HOU88–116−6.0
- W@HOU104–98+16.6
- L@MEM98–123−9.7
- L@IND114–121−3.6
- WSAC115–106+12.1
- LDAL131–137−3.6
- L@LAC105–127−5.9
Season scoring marginUTA−10.3POR−8.1
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
UTA−10.3
Scores 108.2, allows 118.6 over 21 games: −10.3 a game.
POR−8.1
Scores 107.1, allows 115.3 over 22 games: −8.1 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10UTA112.0POR108.0
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).
UTA112.0scored, −0.6 vs league
| Factor | UTA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.5% | 54.1% | +2.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 15.7% | 12.5% | −4.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.6% | 24.8% | +1.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.204 | 0.198 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
POR108.0scored, −4.5 vs league
| Factor | POR | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.3% | 54.1% | −2.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.8% | 12.5% | −3.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 29.7% | 24.8% | +2.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.182 | 0.198 | −0.4 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Defensive rating, last 10UTA120.8POR115.6
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).
UTA120.8allowed, +8.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.2% | 54.1% | −3.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.5% | 12.5% | −4.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.3% | 24.8% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.207 | 0.198 | −0.3 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
POR115.6allowed, +3.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.6% | 54.1% | +0.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.3% | 12.5% | +1.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 33.8% | 24.8% | −4.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.228 | 0.198 | −0.9 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
Pace, last 10average 98.9
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
UTA 98.3 and POR 99.5 → average 98.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)
Rotation points missingUTA22.3POR16.1
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
UTA22.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Clarkson | 15.0 | 27.5 | 4 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 7.2 | 23.8 | 4 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-12-06 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
POR16.1pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Clingan | 8.4 | 23.1 | 5 |
| Robert Williams III | 7.8 | 19.4 | 4 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-12-06 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestUTA3 daysPOR3 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
UTA3days
Last played Dec 3 against OKC.
POR3days
Last played Dec 3 against LAC.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
UTA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3 | @OKC | 106–133 | 38-70 | 13-35 | 17-22 | 29 | 11 | 110.4 | 137.1 | 96.5 |
| Dec 1 | LAL | 104–105 | 40-79 | 14-40 | 10-16 | 15 | 8 | 111.8 | 112.9 | 93.0 |
| Nov 30 | DAL | 94–106 | 34-95 | 9-39 | 17-21 | 15 | 18 | 96.9 | 108.2 | 97.5 |
| Nov 27 | DEN | 103–122 | 38-90 | 16-43 | 11-18 | 18 | 13 | 108.4 | 131.2 | 94.0 |
| Nov 26 | SAS | 115–128 | 43-84 | 13-35 | 16-20 | 21 | 10 | 113.9 | 126.7 | 101.0 |
| Nov 23 | NYK | 121–106 | 44-87 | 19-34 | 14-19 | 18 | 9 | 117.5 | 103.9 | 102.5 |
| Nov 21 | @SAS | 118–126 | 41-98 | 13-45 | 23-26 | 14 | 12 | 110.3 | 116.7 | 107.5 |
| Nov 19 | @LAL | 118–124 | 45-90 | 12-36 | 16-19 | 14 | 11 | 118.0 | 124.0 | 100.0 |
| Nov 17 | @LAC | 105–116 | 39-79 | 12-40 | 15-18 | 18 | 9 | 110.5 | 120.8 | 95.5 |
| Nov 16 | @SAC | 117–121 | 37-75 | 12-26 | 31-42 | 13 | 11 | 121.9 | 126.0 | 96.0 |
POR
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3 | @LAC | 105–127 | 41-80 | 10-29 | 13-16 | 15 | 9 | 114.1 | 138.0 | 92.0 |
| Dec 1 | DAL | 131–137 | 49-84 | 18-31 | 15-18 | 21 | 10 | 128.4 | 133.0 | 102.5 |
| Nov 29 | SAC | 115–106 | 46-90 | 11-37 | 12-15 | 11 | 8 | 116.2 | 109.3 | 98.0 |
| Nov 27 | @IND | 114–121 | 44-87 | 16-35 | 10-17 | 14 | 12 | 121.3 | 131.5 | 93.0 |
| Nov 25 | @MEM | 98–123 | 34-102 | 8-46 | 22-28 | 11 | 17 | 94.2 | 118.3 | 104.0 |
| Nov 23 | @HOU | 104–98 | 34-90 | 18-44 | 18-23 | 16 | 16 | 105.1 | 99.0 | 99.0 |
| Nov 22 | @HOU | 88–116 | 30-91 | 11-43 | 17-22 | 20 | 11 | 85.4 | 112.6 | 103.0 |
| Nov 20 | @OKC | 99–109 | 32-79 | 15-38 | 20-28 | 22 | 16 | 100.0 | 110.1 | 99.0 |
| Nov 17 | ATL | 114–110 | 44-95 | 14-38 | 12-19 | 20 | 18 | 111.8 | 106.8 | 102.5 |
| Nov 13 | MIN | 106–98 | 38-83 | 9-25 | 21-23 | 19 | 11 | 103.9 | 97.0 | 101.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | UTA | POR |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 141 | 99 |
| Field goals | 53–96 · 55.2% | 37–95 · 38.9% |
| Three-pointers | 14–32 · 43.8% | 14–47 · 29.8% |
| Free throws | 21–23 · 91.3% | 11–17 · 64.7% |
| Rebounds | 61 | 34 |
| Assists | 34 | 23 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 10 |
| Steals | 6 | 4 |
| Blocks | 11 | 7 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · Portland Trail Blazers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (POR) | +3 | −42 | −45 |
| Total points | 221 | 240 | +19 |
| UTA points | 109 | 141 | +32 |
| POR points | 112 | 99 | −13 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 33 | 34 | 35 | 39 | – | 141 |
| POR | 17 | 27 | 26 | 29 | – | 99 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 14 2023-24 | UTA at POR | UTA 122 – 114 POR |
| Dec 2 2023-24 | POR at UTA | POR 113 – 118 UTA |
| Nov 22 2023-24 | UTA at POR | UTA 105 – 121 POR |
| Nov 14 2023-24 | POR at UTA | POR 99 – 115 UTA |
| Mar 22 2022-23 | POR at UTA | POR 127 – 115 UTA |