The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Feb 8

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Portland Trail Blazers

Thursday, February 8, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

DET 2–0@POR 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 19 percent, POR 81 percent. DET Pistons 19% proj. 111 · final 128 POR Trail Blazers · home 81% proj. 126 · final 122
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 111 128 +17
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home) 126 122 −4

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 15.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputDETPOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12741355
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +151
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −9.3−8.3
Games played this season 5050
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.6115.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.9117.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 17.10.0
Rest days 14
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1274POR1355

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1274

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1270 → started this one at 1327
  2. First 40 games: −103.2
  3. Last 10 games: +49.8
  • LMIN117–124−1.7
  • LMIL135–141−1.9
  • LMIL113–122−2.4
  • WCHA113–106+8.8
  • LWAS104–118−12.4
  • WOKC120–104+36.9
  • L@CLE121–128−0.9
  • LLAC125–136−2.1
  • LORL99–111−5.1
  • W@SAC133–120+30.6

POR1355

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1315 → started this one at 1362
  2. First 40 games: −46.1
  3. Last 10 games: +39.2
  • WIND118–115+9.2
  • L@LAL110–134−7.4
  • L@OKC109–111−0.7
  • W@HOU137–131+14.3
  • L@SAS100–116−12.0
  • LCHI96–104−6.0
  • WPHI130–104+36.7
  • WMIL119–116+9.5
  • L@DEN108–120−2.4
  • L@DEN103–112−2.0
Season scoring marginDET−9.3POR−8.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET−9.3

Scores 113.0, allows 122.3 over 50 games: −9.3 a game.

POR−8.3

Scores 108.4, allows 116.6 over 50 games: −8.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DET117.6POR115.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

DET117.6scored, +2.3 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.1%54.9%+3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%11.5%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.4%24.3%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2110.203+0.3
Everything else−0.1

POR115.3scored, +0.0 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.9%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%11.5%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.6%24.3%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2330.203+0.9
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10DET119.9POR117.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

DET119.9allowed, +4.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%54.9%−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)8.2%11.5%−4.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.7%24.3%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.203+0.0
Everything else+1.7

POR117.9allowed, +2.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%54.9%+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.0%11.5%−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%24.3%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.203−0.2
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 99.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 100.5 and POR 97.4 → average 99.0 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingDET17.1POR0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET17.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Isaiah Stewart12.828.85
Killian Hayes4.319.87

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-08 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-08 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestDET1 daysPOR4 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET1day, back-to-back

Last played Feb 7 against SAC.

POR4days

Last played Feb 4 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 7@SAC133–12047-8417-3122-22116133.0117.6101.0
Feb 4ORL99–11136-808-3119-22159105.3116.894.5
Feb 2LAC125–13645-8917-4018-241613125.0136.0100.0
Jan 31@CLE121–12845-8116-3115-19177122.2130.698.5
Jan 28OKC120–10447-9511-2615-19915123.7106.197.5
Jan 27WAS104–11837-859-3221-271711102.0115.7102.0
Jan 24CHA113–10643-8615-3812-20115114.1108.298.5
Jan 22MIL113–12240-8910-3023-29106109.7117.3103.5
Jan 20MIL135–14144-9421-3726-3289123.9129.4109.0
Jan 17MIN117–12446-8912-3113-19128117.0121.6101.0

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 4@DEN103–11239-8511-3114-151315115.7124.489.5
Feb 2@DEN108–12037-8010-2824-30813118.7130.491.5
Jan 31MIL119–11649-9212-289-9119121.4118.498.0
Jan 29PHI130–10446-8412-2826-291311134.0107.297.0
Jan 28CHI96–10432-796-3326-29137102.1109.594.5
Jan 26@SAS100–11638-9010-3714-1913896.2111.5104.0
Jan 24@HOU137–13150-9815-3522-241213130.5126.094.6
Jan 23@OKC109–11137-8618-3917-211912107.9108.8101.5
Jan 21@LAL110–13442-909-2917-201210108.9131.4101.5
Jan 19IND118–11542-844-1230-3599118.0111.7101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
19%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
the forecast favored POR
21 pts
margin miss
forecast +15, actual −6 for POR
5th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
166th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETPOR
Final score128122
Field goals45–93 · 48.4%41–89 · 46.1%
Three-pointers16–27 · 59.3%11–30 · 36.7%
Free throws22–31 · 71.0%29–33 · 87.9%
Rebounds4538
Assists2629
Turnovers1615
Steals39
Blocks77

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (POR)+15−6−21
Total points237250+13
DET points111128+17
POR points126122−4

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
DET253128368128
POR304126232122

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Feb 7 at SAC W 133–120
Feb 4 vs ORL L 99–111
Feb 2 vs LAC L 125–136
Jan 31 at CLE L 121–128
Jan 28 vs OKC W 120–104

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Feb 4 at DEN L 103–112
Feb 2 at DEN L 108–120
Jan 31 vs MIL W 119–116
Jan 29 vs PHI W 130–104
Jan 28 vs CHI L 96–104

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 1 2023-24 POR at DET POR 110 – 101 DET
Mar 6 2022-23 POR at DET POR 110 – 104 DET
Jan 2 2022-23 DET at POR DET 106 – 135 POR
Mar 21 2021-22 POR at DET POR 119 – 115 DET
Nov 30 2021-22 DET at POR DET 92 – 110 POR