The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers

Sunday, October 23, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 1–0@LAL 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: POR 24 percent, LAL 76 percent. POR Trail Blazers 24% proj. 107 · final 106 LAL Lakers · home 76% proj. 118 · final 104
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
POR Portland Trail Blazers 107 106 −1
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 118 104 −14

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPORLAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13341424
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +159
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −7.5−3.7
Games played this season 22
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 101.6109.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 117.7115.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1334LAL1424

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1334

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
  2. This season's 2 games: +22.6
  • W@SAC115–108+14.2
  • WPHX113–111+8.4

LAL1424

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1413 → started this one at 1435
  2. This season's 2 games: −10.6
  • L@GSW109–123−3.4
  • LLAC97–103−7.2
Season scoring marginPOR−7.5LAL−3.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−7.5

Scores 114.0, allows 109.5 over 2 games: +4.5 a game.

10% this season (+4.5) + 90% last season (−8.9) = −7.5

LAL−3.7

Scores 103.0, allows 113.0 over 2 games: −10.0 a game.

10% this season (−10.0) + 90% last season (−3.0) = −3.7

Offensive rating, last 10POR101.6LAL109.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

POR101.6scored, −9.8 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%53.3%−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%11.8%−3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.0%23.0%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.196−0.7
Everything else−0.6

LAL109.5scored, −1.8 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.5%53.3%−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%11.8%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.4%23.0%−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2720.196+2.2
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10POR117.7LAL115.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

POR117.7allowed, +6.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.1%53.3%−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%11.8%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.7%23.0%−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2520.196−1.6
Everything else+1.1

LAL115.8allowed, +4.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.1%53.3%−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%11.8%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.5%23.0%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.196−0.2
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 100.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 97.8 and LAL 103.5 → average 100.6 (league 2021-22: 98.6)

Rotation points missingPOR0.0LAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-23 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-23 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysLAL3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Oct 21 against PHX.

LAL3days

Last played Oct 20 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21PHX113–11136-8210-2931-361813103.7102.898.3
Oct 19@SAC115–10839-8811-2826-331111113.9106.9101.0
Apr 10UTA80–11131-839-349-1214581.6112.198.5
Apr 8@DAL78–12831-837-329-1216581.3128.098.0
Apr 7@NOP94–12736-6911-3111-13223101.1135.193.5
Apr 5@OKC94–9835-8311-3213-16171096.9101.097.0
Apr 3@SAS92–11333-8416-4510-1514796.8115.396.5
Apr 1@SAS111–13041-9215-3514-201012112.1131.399.0
Mar 30NOP107–11739-8514-4215-182013108.1118.299.0
Mar 28OKC131–13451-11220-509-131119120.2126.497.4

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 20LAC97–10333-949-4522-2610891.599.0105.0
Oct 18@GSW109–12340-9410-4019-2521997.3107.0113.5
Apr 10@DEN146–14144-9416-4342-471313129.2122.6103.2
Apr 8OKC120–10141-829-3129-3997120.0100.0100.5
Apr 7@GSW112–12837-839-3229-38188105.7119.6106.5
Apr 5@PHX110–12139-869-2923-30167100.9110.0109.5
Apr 3DEN118–12949-926-2014-21126115.7126.5102.0
Apr 1NOP111–11439-8211-2722-31157105.7111.8103.5
Mar 31@UTA109–12241-837-2520-28119114.7127.195.5
Mar 29@DAL110–12840-8912-4418-22914114.6134.795.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
24%
pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner
the forecast favored LAL
13 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −2 for LAL
22nd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
381st
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPORLAL
Final score106104
Field goals37–84 · 44.0%41–92 · 44.6%
Three-pointers10–27 · 37.0%6–33 · 18.2%
Free throws22–27 · 81.5%16–20 · 80.0%
Rebounds5240
Assists1926
Turnovers1913
Steals69
Blocks59

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+11−2−13
Total points225210−15
POR points107106−1
LAL points118104−14

Recent form before this game

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs PHX W 113–111
Oct 19 at SAC W 115–108
Apr 10 vs UTA L 80–111
Apr 8 at DAL L 78–128
Apr 7 at NOP L 94–127

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 20 vs LAC L 97–103
Oct 18 at GSW L 109–123
Apr 10 at DEN W 146–141
Apr 8 vs OKC W 120–101
Apr 7 at GSW L 112–128

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 9 2021-22 LAL at POR LAL 105 – 107 POR
Feb 2 2021-22 POR at LAL POR 94 – 99 LAL
Dec 31 2021-22 POR at LAL POR 106 – 139 LAL
Nov 6 2021-22 LAL at POR LAL 90 – 105 POR