The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Feb 15

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers

Thursday, February 15, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MIN 0–1@POR 4–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIN 53 percent, POR 47 percent. MIN Timberwolves 53% proj. 113 · final 128 POR Trail Blazers · home 47% proj. 109 · final 91
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 113 128 +15
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home) 109 91 −18

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMINPOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16621334
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −258
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.7−8.3
Games played this season 5453
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 119.0114.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 107.6117.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 95.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.016.8
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIN1662POR1334

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIN1662

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1504 → started this one at 1503
  2. First 44 games: +108.8
  3. Last 10 games: +49.9
  • W@BKN96–94+3.3
  • L@SAS112–113−7.9
  • W@OKC107–101+10.7
  • WDAL121–87+8.6
  • LORL106–108−8.7
  • WHOU111–90+6.5
  • L@CHI123–129−10.1
  • W@MIL129–105+20.6
  • W@LAC121–100+23.2
  • W@POR121–109+3.7

POR1334

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1315 → started this one at 1362
  2. First 43 games: −45.0
  3. Last 10 games: +17.5
  • W@HOU137–131+14.3
  • L@SAS100–116−12.0
  • LCHI96–104−6.0
  • WPHI130–104+36.7
  • WMIL119–116+9.5
  • L@DEN108–120−2.4
  • L@DEN103–112−2.0
  • LDET122–128−12.4
  • LNOP84–93−4.5
  • LMIN109–121−3.7
Season scoring marginMIN+6.7POR−8.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIN+6.7

Scores 113.7, allows 107.0 over 54 games: +6.7 a game.

POR−8.3

Scores 108.2, allows 116.5 over 53 games: −8.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIN119.0POR114.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

MIN119.0scored, +3.7 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.5%54.9%+5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%11.5%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.0%24.3%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.202−0.1
Everything else−1.0

POR114.2scored, −1.1 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%54.9%−3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%11.5%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.9%24.3%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2300.202+0.8
Everything else+0.8
Defensive rating, last 10MIN107.6POR117.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

MIN107.6allowed, −7.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.4%54.9%+5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%11.5%+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%24.3%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.202−0.3
Everything else+0.7

POR117.7allowed, +2.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%54.9%+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%11.5%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.1%24.3%−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.202−0.3
Everything else+0.3
Pace, last 10average 95.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIN 95.5 and POR 95.1 → average 95.3 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingMIN0.0POR16.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-15 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

POR16.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Malcolm Brogdon16.836.75

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-15 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestMIN2 daysPOR2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIN2days

Last played Feb 13 against POR.

POR2days

Last played Feb 13 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 13@POR121–10939-8413-3330-341212121.0110.199.5
Feb 12@LAC121–10046-8611-3418-19119127.4104.295.5
Feb 8@MIL129–10548-8721-4112-16812141.8116.790.5
Feb 6@CHI123–12942-9220-4519-261310118.3121.795.1
Feb 4HOU111–9040-9011-3020-271511107.889.1102.0
Feb 2ORL106–10838-8212-3818-20176106.0106.9100.5
Jan 31DAL121–8745-8013-3018-30109127.492.694.5
Jan 29@OKC107–10140-8314-2913-15139113.8109.893.0
Jan 27@SAS112–11345-7914-268-15137121.7122.892.0
Jan 25@BKN96–9437-7510-2112-16145104.3102.292.0

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 13MIN109–12139-8711-2920-251612110.1121.099.5
Feb 10NOP84–9333-766-2112-17171197.7106.986.5
Feb 8DET122–12841-8911-3029-331511115.1121.995.5
Feb 4@DEN103–11239-8511-3114-151315115.7124.489.5
Feb 2@DEN108–12037-8010-2824-30813118.7130.491.5
Jan 31MIL119–11649-9212-289-9119121.4118.498.0
Jan 29PHI130–10446-8412-2826-291311134.0107.297.0
Jan 28CHI96–10432-796-3326-29137102.1109.594.5
Jan 26@SAS100–11638-9010-3714-1913896.2111.5104.0
Jan 24@HOU137–13150-9815-3522-241213130.5126.094.6

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
53%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner
MIN was the forecast favorite
33 pts
margin miss
forecast −4, actual −37 for POR
591st
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
38th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.63 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMINPOR
Final score12891
Field goals46–89 · 51.7%31–83 · 37.3%
Three-pointers11–30 · 36.7%8–29 · 27.6%
Free throws25–27 · 92.6%21–30 · 70.0%
Rebounds5235
Assists2418
Turnovers1315
Steals88
Blocks55

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (POR)−4−37−33
Total points222219−3
MIN points113128+15
POR points10991−18

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MIN44223329–128
POR14372515–91

Recent form before this game

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
Feb 13 at POR W 121–109
Feb 12 at LAC W 121–100
Feb 8 at MIL W 129–105
Feb 6 at CHI L 123–129
Feb 4 vs HOU W 111–90

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Feb 13 vs MIN L 109–121
Feb 10 vs NOP L 84–93
Feb 8 vs DET L 122–128
Feb 4 at DEN L 103–112
Feb 2 at DEN L 108–120

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 13 2023-24 MIN at POR MIN 121 – 109 POR
Jan 12 2023-24 POR at MIN POR 93 – 116 MIN
Apr 2 2022-23 POR at MIN POR 107 – 105 MIN
Jan 4 2022-23 POR at MIN POR 106 – 113 MIN
Dec 12 2022-23 MIN at POR MIN 112 – 133 POR