The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

POR 4–1@DEN 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: POR 39 percent, DEN 61 percent. POR Trail Blazers 39% proj. 112 · final 118 DEN Nuggets · home 61% proj. 116 · final 110
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
POR Portland Trail Blazers 112 118 +6
DEN Denver Nuggets (home) 116 110 −6

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DEN

  • Home court+2.1 DENWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Recent form+0.6 DENLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: DEN scores 109.5 and allows 114.6; POR scores 110.2 and allows 112.2.
  • Team strength+0.6 DENElo DEN 1574, POR 1527; season margin DEN +3.1, POR +2.1.
  • Player availability+0.4 DENPOR without Ja Morant (16 ppg).

Together: DEN by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DEN is 3–2, losing by 1 a game on average (scoring 114, allowing 115). Last season they were a +4 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −2.0, getting to the line +1.6. Their defense lets opponents rebound 30% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense +1.5.

POR is 4–1, winning by 11 a game on average (scoring 121, allowing 109). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their defense holds opponents to 54% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 1.2 points per 100 possessions. Ja Morant (16 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DEN; left favors POR.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Recent form +0.6, Team strength +0.6, Player availability +0.4, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving +4.1 for DEN. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Recent form +0.6 Team strength +0.6 Player availability +0.4 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin +4.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +4.1. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputPORDENEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15271574 +0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +117 +1.2
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.1+3.1 +0.2
Games played this season 55 −0.9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.2109.5 +0.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.2114.6 −0.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.1 +1.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 15.80.0 +0.4
Rest days 23 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueDEN ptsPOR ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court116.7+0.53−0.64+1.17
Combined pace, last 1099.1−0.10−1.19+1.09
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.81−0.10+0.91
Games played (away)5.0+0.24+1.07−0.83
Rotation points missing (away)15.8−0.05+0.46−0.51
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.2−0.06−0.48+0.42
Season scoring margin (home)3.1+0.20−0.18+0.38
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)114.6+0.23+0.56−0.32
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.5−0.45−0.14−0.32
Elo rating (home)1573.6+0.06−0.23+0.29
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)112.2−0.35−0.12−0.23
Season scoring margin (away)2.1−0.10+0.12−0.22
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.05+0.19
Rest days (home)3.0+0.10−0.03+0.14
Elo rating (away)1527.0−0.10−0.01−0.09
Games played (home)5.0−0.04+0.03−0.07
Series pressure0.0+0.05+0.02+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.02
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1527DEN15741.4 pts toward DEN

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1527

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
  2. This season's 5 games: +16.1
  • WPHX124–83+22.0
  • W@SAC128–120+6.0
  • W@LAL136–129+12.2
  • LMEM103–124−34.1
  • W@UTA112–90+10.0

DEN1574

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1622 → started this one at 1591
  2. This season's 5 games: −17.5
  • L@OKC84–96−5.4
  • WNOP141–135+2.5
  • LGSW114–134−32.3
  • W@NOP104–91+9.0
  • W@PHX127–120+8.7
Season scoring marginPOR+2.1DEN+3.10.7 pts toward POR

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR+2.1

Scores 120.6, allows 109.2 over 5 games: +11.4 a game.

25% this season (+11.4) + 75% last season (−1.0) = +2.1

DEN+3.1

Scores 114.0, allows 115.2 over 5 games: −1.2 a game.

25% this season (−1.2) + 75% last season (+4.5) = +3.1

Offensive rating, last 10POR110.2DEN109.50.1 pts toward DEN

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR110.2scored, −4.4 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.7%54.5%−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.2%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%26.1%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.210+0.6
Everything else−1.2

DEN109.5scored, −5.1 vs league

FactorDENLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.5%−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%26.1%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2670.210+1.6
Everything else−0.8
Defensive rating, last 10POR112.2DEN114.60.5 pts toward POR

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

POR112.2allowed, −2.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.5%+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.6%26.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.210−0.5
Everything else+0.1

DEN114.6allowed, +0.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.5%+1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.1%26.1%−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.210+0.3
Everything else−0.9
Pace, last 10average 99.11.1 pts toward DEN

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 99.4 and DEN 98.8 → average 99.1 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPOR15.8DEN0.00.4 pts toward DEN

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR15.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Ja Morant15.825.94

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysDEN3 days0.1 pts toward DEN

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Oct 31 against UTA.

DEN3days

Last played Oct 30 against PHX.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31@UTA112–9031-7616-4434-41179108.788.2102.5
Oct 29MEM103–12437-9112-4917-261613101.0121.6102.0
Oct 27@LAL136–12946-7818-3626-41147133.3129.0101.0
Oct 23@SAC128–12046-9614-4822-30913120.8113.2106.0
Oct 21PHX124–8345-9419-4715-181716126.586.597.0
Apr 28@SAS95–11433-9411-4718-2391499.0121.395.0
Apr 26SAS93–11432-8010-3119-2318793.0116.399.0
Apr 24SAS108–12037-9014-3820-291016109.1122.498.5
Apr 21@SAS106–10338-8913-3817-231515108.2106.297.5
Apr 19@SAS98–11139-9110-3810-12108102.1116.895.5

DEN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 30@PHX127–12042-8020-3723-301812129.6122.498.0
Oct 28@NOP104–9137-8012-3118-19175104.090.1100.5
Oct 26GSW114–13442-8410-2920-231110117.5139.696.5
Oct 24NOP141–13548-9915-4730-391114119.5116.4106.0
Oct 22@OKC84–9631-828-3014-22221989.4102.194.0
Apr 30@MIN98–11034-7510-2720-25136105.4118.393.0
Apr 27MIN125–11347-8311-2920-25165122.5109.7102.5
Apr 25@MIN96–11233-876-2824-281012101.1119.194.5
Apr 23@MIN96–11328-828-3232-4010695.0111.9101.0
Apr 20MIN114–11938-8615-4123-3095110.7116.7102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
39%
pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner
the forecast favored DEN
12 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −8 for DEN
19th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
54th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPORDEN
Final score118110
Field goals43–92 · 46.7%36–77 · 46.8%
Three-pointers15–41 · 36.6%9–26 · 34.6%
Free throws17–21 · 81.0%29–34 · 85.3%
Rebounds5337
Assists3024
Turnovers1612
Steals313
Blocks53

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)+4−8−12
Total points228228±0
POR points112118+6
DEN points116110−6

Recent form before this game

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 at UTA W 112–90
Oct 29 vs MEM L 103–124
Oct 27 at LAL W 136–129
Oct 23 at SAC W 128–120
Oct 21 vs PHX W 124–83

Denver Nuggets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 30 at PHX W 127–120
Oct 28 at NOP W 104–91
Oct 26 vs GSW L 114–134
Oct 24 vs NOP W 141–135
Oct 22 at OKC L 84–96

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 6 2025-26 POR at DEN POR 132 – 137 DEN
Mar 22 2025-26 POR at DEN POR 112 – 128 DEN
Feb 20 2025-26 DEN at POR DEN 157 – 103 POR
Oct 31 2025-26 DEN at POR DEN 107 – 109 POR
Mar 21 2024-25 DEN at POR DEN 109 – 128 POR