2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers

Friday, November 6, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

POR 6–1@LAL 7–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	114	118	+4
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home)	119	124	+5

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	LAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1553	1588
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+105
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+3.3	+4.1
Games played this season	7	9
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.1	120.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.6	113.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	15.8	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1553LAL1588

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1553

Ended last season at 1514 → started this one at 1511
This season's 7 games: +42.6

WPHX124–83+22.0
W@SAC128–120+6.0
W@LAL136–129+12.2
LMEM103–124−34.1
W@UTA112–90+10.0
W@DEN118–110+13.3
W@PHX132–119+13.2

LAL1588

Ended last season at 1586 → started this one at 1564
This season's 9 games: +24.3

WGSW127–105+7.5
WLAC125–117+5.9
W@UTA132–123+4.5
LPOR129–136−12.2
W@LAC103–87+15.5
L@GSW95–112−17.4
WTOR131–125+5.4
WMIA138–117+9.1
W@SAC116–103+6.0

Season scoring marginPOR+3.3LAL+4.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR+3.3

Scores 121.9, allows 110.7 over 7 games: +11.1 a game.

35% this season (+11.1) + 65% last season (−1.0) = +3.3

LAL+4.1

Scores 121.8, allows 113.9 over 9 games: +7.9 a game.

45% this season (+7.9) + 55% last season (+1.0) = +4.1

Offensive rating, last 10POR114.1LAL120.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

POR114.1scored, +2.0 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	53.3%	−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	13.3%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.7%	27.1%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.254	0.226	+0.8
Everything else			−1.1

LAL120.0scored, +7.9 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.8%	53.3%	+9.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.4%	13.3%	−3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.7%	27.1%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.301	0.226	+2.2
Everything else			−0.6

Defensive rating, last 10POR112.6LAL113.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.1).

POR112.6allowed, +0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	53.3%	−0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	13.3%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	27.1%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.252	0.226	−0.8
Everything else			+0.5

LAL113.2allowed, +1.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	53.3%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.9%	13.3%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.4%	27.1%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.249	0.226	−0.7
Everything else			−0.3

Pace, last 10average 100.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 100.2 and LAL 100.5 → average 100.3 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingPOR15.8LAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR15.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ja Morant	15.8	25.9	4

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysLAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Nov 4 against PHX.

LAL2days

Last played Nov 4 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	@PHX	132–119	44-86	14-39	30-41	17	16	126.9	114.4	104.0
Nov 2	@DEN	118–110	43-92	15-41	17-21	16	21	122.9	113.4	96.5
Oct 31	@UTA	112–90	31-76	16-44	34-41	17	9	108.7	88.2	102.5
Oct 29	MEM	103–124	37-91	12-49	17-26	16	13	101.0	121.6	102.0
Oct 27	@LAL	136–129	46-78	18-36	26-41	14	7	133.3	129.0	101.0
Oct 23	@SAC	128–120	46-96	14-48	22-30	9	13	120.8	113.2	106.0
Oct 21	PHX	124–83	45-94	19-47	15-18	17	16	126.5	86.5	97.0
Apr 28	@SAS	95–114	33-94	11-47	18-23	9	14	99.0	121.3	95.0
Apr 26	SAS	93–114	32-80	10-31	19-23	18	7	93.0	116.3	99.0
Apr 24	SAS	108–120	37-90	14-38	20-29	10	16	109.1	122.4	98.5

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	@SAC	116–103	35-78	12-38	34-38	11	10	114.9	104.0	100.0
Nov 2	MIA	138–117	51-89	19-43	17-24	16	10	135.3	114.7	102.0
Nov 1	TOR	131–125	43-80	18-37	27-32	22	9	123.6	116.8	106.5
Oct 30	@GSW	95–112	33-82	11-39	18-24	20	16	102.2	119.1	93.5
Oct 28	@LAC	103–87	35-79	9-31	24-33	19	17	105.1	89.7	97.5
Oct 27	POR	129–136	45-80	17-43	22-30	15	6	129.0	133.3	101.0
Oct 25	@UTA	132–123	40-82	20-47	32-38	10	5	130.7	120.6	101.5
Oct 23	LAC	125–117	46-79	14-32	19-25	21	8	122.5	113.6	102.5
Oct 21	GSW	127–105	46-81	11-28	24-27	18	10	124.5	102.9	102.0
May 11	OKC	110–115	38-75	10-28	24-27	19	7	112.2	117.3	98.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

64%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner

LAL was the forecast favorite

1 pts

margin miss

forecast +5, actual +6 for LAL

83rd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

133rd

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.45 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	LAL
Final score	118	124
Field goals	36–70 · 51.4%	42–93 · 45.2%
Three-pointers	19–43 · 44.2%	11–37 · 29.7%
Free throws	27–37 · 73.0%	29–37 · 78.4%
Rebounds	37	40
Assists	29	17
Turnovers	24	11
Steals	7	15
Blocks	5	1

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)	+5	+6	+1
Total points	233	242	+9
POR points	114	118	+4
LAL points	119	124	+5

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-06 18:00 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.