2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz

Wednesday, March 22, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 7–0@UTA 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	113	127	+14
UTA Utah Jazz (home)	122	115	−7

Forecast: Utah Jazz to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	UTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1381	1471
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+159
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.9	+0.1
Games played this season	71	71
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.3	114.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.0	115.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	41.5	13.5
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1381UTA1471

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1381

Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
First 61 games: +117.1
Last 10 games: −47.7

LNOP110–121−12.5
L@ATL111–129−7.6
W@ORL122–119+8.5
W@DET110–104+6.9
L@BOS93–115−5.6
L@PHI119–120−1.1
L@NOP110–127−9.4
LNYK107–123−9.2
LBOS112–126−7.0
LLAC102–117−10.7

UTA1471

Ended last season at 1551 → started this one at 1538
First 61 games: −62.0
Last 10 games: −5.2

WSAS118–102+4.0
LSAS94–102−19.5
L@OKC103–130−14.0
L@OKC119–129−6.3
L@DAL116–120−3.6
W@ORL131–124+11.3
W@CHA119–111+10.3
L@MIA115–119−3.8
WBOS118–117+5.6
WSAC128–120+10.8

Season scoring marginPOR−1.9UTA+0.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−1.9

Scores 114.2, allows 116.1 over 71 games: −1.9 a game.

UTA+0.1

Scores 117.4, allows 117.3 over 71 games: +0.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR110.3UTA114.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

POR110.3scored, −3.7 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	54.6%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.1%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.9%	23.8%	−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.246	0.213	+1.0
Everything else			+0.1

UTA114.0scored, +0.0 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.6%	−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.1%	−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.0%	23.8%	+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.216	0.213	+0.1
Everything else			+1.2

Defensive rating, last 10POR120.0UTA115.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

POR120.0allowed, +6.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.6%	54.6%	−4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.1%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.1%	23.8%	−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.233	0.213	−0.6
Everything else			+1.8

UTA115.2allowed, +1.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.6%	+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	8.7%	12.1%	−4.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.4%	23.8%	+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.201	0.213	+0.3
Everything else			+0.1

Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 99.8 and UTA 102.0 → average 100.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingPOR41.5UTA13.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR41.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jerami Grant	18.9	35.6	7
Anfernee Simons	18.3	30.1	6
Nassir Little	4.3	18.6	9

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-22 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

UTA13.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jordan Clarkson	13.5	33.3	2

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-22 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPOR3 daysUTA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR3days

Last played Mar 19 against LAC.

UTA2days

Last played Mar 20 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 19	LAC	102–117	37-82	6-29	22-24	13	11	106.3	120.6	96.5
Mar 17	BOS	112–126	38-79	14-38	22-31	18	8	110.9	123.5	101.5
Mar 14	NYK	107–123	38-99	17-45	14-18	10	11	107.0	120.6	101.0
Mar 12	@NOP	110–127	43-88	10-33	14-20	17	10	103.8	121.0	105.5
Mar 10	@PHI	119–120	42-80	15-36	20-30	9	5	124.0	126.3	95.5
Mar 8	@BOS	93–115	30-82	11-39	22-27	15	6	90.3	111.7	103.0
Mar 6	@DET	110–104	38-78	15-33	19-25	11	5	114.6	107.2	96.5
Mar 5	@ORL	122–119	39-83	16-47	28-32	17	9	119.6	116.7	102.0
Mar 3	@ATL	111–129	41-87	13-39	16-20	17	9	107.8	125.2	103.0
Mar 1	NOP	110–121	36-81	11-38	27-29	14	12	118.3	127.4	94.0

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 20	SAC	128–120	46-88	16-36	20-23	12	6	124.3	114.3	104.0
Mar 18	BOS	118–117	42-97	17-41	17-22	7	17	124.2	123.2	95.0
Mar 13	@MIA	115–119	43-90	16-38	13-18	18	16	113.9	119.0	100.5
Mar 11	@CHA	119–111	46-103	9-32	18-20	11	20	120.2	113.3	98.5
Mar 9	@ORL	131–124	49-88	13-34	20-21	17	11	129.7	122.8	101.0
Mar 7	@DAL	116–120	41-92	15-44	19-25	16	6	105.5	109.1	110.0
Mar 5	@OKC	119–129	43-88	11-37	22-27	16	12	115.5	125.2	103.0
Mar 3	@OKC	103–130	38-78	9-29	18-23	25	10	99.0	126.2	103.5
Feb 28	SAS	94–102	30-85	10-34	24-36	20	14	92.2	100.0	102.0
Feb 25	SAS	118–102	43-92	10-28	22-28	14	15	115.7	99.0	102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

28%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored UTA

21 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −12 for UTA

45th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

136th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.28 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	UTA
Final score	127	115
Field goals	45–93 · 48.4%	39–82 · 47.6%
Three-pointers	13–41 · 31.7%	11–35 · 31.4%
Free throws	24–30 · 80.0%	26–36 · 72.2%
Rebounds	43	47
Assists	28	24
Turnovers	8	17
Steals	9	4
Blocks	5	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)	+9	−12	−21
Total points	235	242	+7
POR points	113	127	+14
UTA points	122	115	−7

Recent form before this game