2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors

Friday, November 21, 2025 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

POR 0–0@GSW 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	114	127	+13
GSW Golden State Warriors (home)	123	123	±0

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	GSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1487	1566
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+149
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.0	+0.5
Games played this season	15	17
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.8	110.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	119.9	110.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	40.2	9.5
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1487GSW1566

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1487

Ended last season at 1504 → started this one at 1503
First 5 games: +30.5
Last 10 games: −46.1

WDEN109–107+5.0
LLAL115–123−10.7
WOKC121–119+7.4
L@MIA131–136−5.9
L@ORL112–115−5.1
W@NOP125–117+5.4
L@HOU116–140−9.8
L@DAL133–138−8.9
LPHX110–127−19.0
LCHI121–122−4.5

GSW1566

Ended last season at 1597 → started this one at 1573
First 7 games: +4.6
Last 10 games: −11.5

WPHX118–107+4.6
L@SAC116–121−7.8
L@DEN104–129−12.1
WIND114–83+14.6
L@OKC102–126−6.5
W@SAS125–120+7.2
W@SAS109–108+3.9
W@NOP124–106+6.5
L@ORL113–121−9.2
L@MIA96–110−12.7

Season scoring marginPOR−2.0GSW+0.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−2.0

Scores 120.7, allows 122.5 over 15 games: −1.7 a game.

75% this season (−1.7) + 25% last season (−3.0) = −2.0

GSW+0.5

Scores 114.4, allows 114.2 over 17 games: +0.2 a game.

85% this season (+0.2) + 15% last season (+2.5) = +0.5

Offensive rating, last 10POR114.8GSW110.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

POR114.8scored, +0.2 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	54.4%	−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.7%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	33.7%	26.3%	+3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.227	−0.1
Everything else			+0.3

GSW110.2scored, −4.4 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	54.4%	−1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.3%	12.7%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.6%	26.3%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.229	0.227	+0.1
Everything else			+0.4

Defensive rating, last 10POR119.9GSW110.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

POR119.9allowed, +5.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.4%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.7%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.2%	26.3%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.234	0.227	−0.2
Everything else			−0.3

GSW110.8allowed, −3.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.6%	54.4%	+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.6%	12.7%	+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.0%	26.3%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.227	0.227	±0.0
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 102.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 102.8 and GSW 102.0 → average 102.4 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.3)

Rotation points missingPOR40.2GSW9.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR40.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Shaedon Sharpe	25.7	29.0	9
Jrue Holiday	14.6	34.2	7

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-21 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

GSW9.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jonathan Kuminga	9.5	23.9	6

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-21 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysGSW2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Nov 19 against CHI.

GSW2days

Last played Nov 19 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 19	CHI	121–122	44-107	12-42	21-32	15	26	112.0	115.1	107.0
Nov 18	PHX	110–127	42-97	10-41	16-20	19	15	104.8	121.0	105.0
Nov 16	@DAL	133–138	46-113	14-47	27-32	11	22	118.8	123.2	101.4
Nov 14	@HOU	116–140	42-89	13-36	19-27	20	16	116.0	138.6	100.5
Nov 12	@NOP	125–117	48-83	13-37	16-17	13	9	130.2	123.2	95.5
Nov 10	@ORL	112–115	40-90	13-36	19-26	8	11	114.3	116.2	98.5
Nov 8	@MIA	131–136	49-109	14-51	19-23	20	22	115.9	120.4	113.0
Nov 5	OKC	121–119	36-88	19-43	30-32	15	11	112.0	110.2	108.0
Nov 3	LAL	115–123	42-85	9-40	22-30	18	15	113.9	121.8	101.0
Oct 31	DEN	109–107	38-91	11-39	22-31	12	16	110.1	109.2	98.5

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 19	@MIA	96–110	34-95	13-49	15-20	21	20	90.6	103.8	106.0
Nov 18	@ORL	113–121	39-78	13-36	22-28	18	6	110.8	116.3	103.0
Nov 16	@NOP	124–106	43-94	24-56	14-17	21	16	120.4	101.9	103.5
Nov 14	@SAS	109–108	38-90	17-45	16-18	14	15	112.4	110.2	97.5
Nov 12	@SAS	125–120	36-85	21-57	32-36	15	8	116.8	113.2	106.5
Nov 11	@OKC	102–126	33-74	13-35	23-29	20	6	100.0	124.8	101.5
Nov 9	IND	114–83	38-88	12-44	26-37	10	11	112.9	83.0	100.5
Nov 7	@DEN	104–129	40-95	12-41	12-15	12	17	108.3	134.4	96.0
Nov 5	@SAC	116–121	40-89	17-43	19-23	18	10	109.4	113.1	106.5
Nov 4	PHX	118–107	41-83	19-42	17-20	15	8	120.4	107.0	99.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

26%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored GSW

13 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −4 for GSW

53rd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

447th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.34 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	GSW
Final score	127	123
Field goals	42–88 · 47.7%	40–83 · 48.2%
Three-pointers	16–45 · 35.6%	17–43 · 39.5%
Free throws	27–32 · 84.4%	26–30 · 86.7%
Rebounds	52	32
Assists	31	29
Turnovers	20	13
Steals	8	14
Blocks	5	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)	+9	−4	−13
Total points	237	250	+13
POR points	114	127	+13
GSW points	123	123	±0

Recent form before this game