The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 19

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies

Thursday, December 19, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 2–2@MEM 3–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: GSW 38 percent, MEM 62 percent. GSW Golden State Warriors 38% proj. 115 · final 93 MEM Grizzlies · home 62% proj. 119 · final 144
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
GSW Golden State Warriors 115 93 −22
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) 119 144 +25

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputGSWMEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15741541
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +37
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.1+8.4
Games played this season 2527
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.6117.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.0106.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.019.1
Rest days 44
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1574MEM1541

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1574

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
  2. First 15 games: +59.5
  3. Last 10 games: −75.9
  • L@SAS94–104−15.3
  • LBKN120–128−19.4
  • LOKC101–105−6.7
  • L@PHX105–113−9.4
  • L@DEN115–119−5.2
  • WHOU99–93+5.6
  • LMIN90–107−19.4
  • WMIN114–106+7.7
  • L@HOU90–91−3.1
  • LDAL133–143−10.7

MEM1541

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1319 → started this one at 1364
  2. First 17 games: +119.1
  3. Last 10 games: +57.5
  • WPOR123–98+9.7
  • WDET131–111+7.6
  • WNOP120–109+4.9
  • WIND136–121+9.0
  • L@DAL116–121−2.9
  • WSAC115–110+5.2
  • W@BOS127–121+16.4
  • W@WAS140–112+8.9
  • WBKN135–119+6.3
  • L@LAL110–116−7.6
Season scoring marginGSW+4.1MEM+8.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+4.1

Scores 113.9, allows 109.8 over 25 games: +4.1 a game.

MEM+8.4

Scores 122.1, allows 113.7 over 27 games: +8.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10GSW107.6MEM117.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

GSW107.6scored, −4.9 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.9%54.2%−4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.6%+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.7%24.6%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1350.197−1.8
Everything else−0.9

MEM117.2scored, +4.7 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.9%54.2%+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.6%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.5%24.6%+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2090.197+0.3
Everything else−0.7
Defensive rating, last 10GSW113.0MEM106.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

GSW113.0allowed, +0.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.2%−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.6%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.4%24.6%+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.197−0.3
Everything else+0.6

MEM106.5allowed, −6.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.9%54.2%+6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.6%+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%24.6%−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2420.197−1.3
Everything else−0.7
Pace, last 10average 102.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 98.3 and MEM 106.8 → average 102.5 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0MEM19.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-19 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MEM19.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Marcus Smart10.423.210
Jay Huff8.716.110

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-19 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestGSW4 daysMEM4 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW4days

Last played Dec 15 against DAL.

MEM4days

Last played Dec 15 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 15DAL133–14349-10327-548-111015131.7141.6101.0
Dec 11@HOU90–9137-8412-384-9151196.898.992.5
Dec 8MIN114–10642-9016-4114-201114118.8111.695.5
Dec 6MIN90–10732-8211-3915-17221090.9107.099.5
Dec 5HOU99–9336-869-2818-271011102.195.997.0
Dec 3@DEN115–11944-9512-3815-211411107.5112.3106.5
Nov 30@PHX105–11338-9214-4015-1899106.1114.199.0
Nov 27OKC101–10535-9816-5015-21141899.0105.0101.0
Nov 25BKN120–12845-9319-4611-171211121.2129.399.0
Nov 23@SAS94–10436-9514-448-131017102.2114.391.5

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 15@LAL110–11638-979-2825-302017100.0105.5110.0
Dec 13BKN135–11952-9917-3614-211312127.4112.3106.0
Dec 8@WAS140–11250-9617-4323-291612128.4103.7108.5
Dec 7@BOS127–12147-9415-3318-231311117.6111.0108.5
Dec 5SAC115–11038-8013-3826-32229107.5103.8106.5
Dec 3@DAL116–12145-9713-4013-141913109.4112.0107.0
Dec 1IND136–12149-9316-4622-27108124.8112.0108.5
Nov 29NOP120–10947-9612-4114-171514115.4105.8103.5
Nov 27DET131–11151-9317-4612-161610123.6104.7106.0
Nov 25POR123–9843-8712-2825-341816118.394.2104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
62%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
MEM was the forecast favorite
47 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual +51 for MEM
723rd
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
3rd
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.48 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statGSWMEM
Final score93144
Field goals32–90 · 35.6%53–98 · 54.1%
Three-pointers12–36 · 33.3%27–48 · 56.3%
Free throws17–24 · 70.8%11–15 · 73.3%
Rebounds3660
Assists2038
Turnovers1716
Steals1111
Blocks58

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)+4+51+47
Total points234237+3
GSW points11593−22
MEM points119144+25

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
GSW15232134–93
MEM37324035–144

Recent form before this game

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Dec 15 vs DAL L 133–143
Dec 11 at HOU L 90–91
Dec 8 vs MIN W 114–106
Dec 6 vs MIN L 90–107
Dec 5 vs HOU W 99–93

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Dec 15 at LAL L 110–116
Dec 13 vs BKN W 135–119
Dec 8 at WAS W 140–112
Dec 7 at BOS W 127–121
Dec 5 vs SAC W 115–110

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 15 2024-25 MEM at GSW MEM 118 – 123 GSW
Mar 20 2023-24 MEM at GSW MEM 116 – 137 GSW
Feb 2 2023-24 GSW at MEM GSW 121 – 101 MEM
Jan 15 2023-24 GSW at MEM GSW 107 – 116 MEM
Mar 18 2022-23 GSW at MEM GSW 119 – 133 MEM