The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 20

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks

Tuesday, December 20, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 1–2@NYK 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: GSW 30 percent, NYK 70 percent. GSW Golden State Warriors 30% proj. 108 · final 94 NYK Knicks · home 70% proj. 116 · final 132
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
GSW Golden State Warriors 108 94 −14
NYK New York Knicks (home) 116 132 +16

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputGSWNYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15761564
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +58
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.7+1.9
Games played this season 3130
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.1113.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.3103.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 53.90.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1576NYK1564

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1576

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1699 → started this one at 1649
  2. First 21 games: −54.9
  3. Last 10 games: −17.9
  • L@DAL113–116−5.1
  • WCHI119–111+4.2
  • WHOU120–101+3.8
  • LIND104–112−17.9
  • L@UTA123–124−3.9
  • WBOS123–107+17.4
  • L@MIL111–128−11.5
  • L@IND119–125−10.0
  • L@PHI106–118−9.0
  • W@TOR126–110+14.1

NYK1564

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1519 → started this one at 1514
  2. First 20 games: −29.1
  3. Last 10 games: +79.1
  • W@DET140–110+18.3
  • LMIL103–109−7.6
  • LDAL100–121−18.6
  • WCLE92–81+12.2
  • WATL113–89+15.8
  • W@CHA121–102+15.2
  • WSAC112–99+9.7
  • W@CHI128–120+10.3
  • W@CHI114–91+19.1
  • W@IND109–106+4.7
Season scoring marginGSW+0.7NYK+1.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+0.7

Scores 117.3, allows 116.6 over 31 games: +0.7 a game.

NYK+1.9

Scores 114.1, allows 112.2 over 30 games: +1.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10GSW113.1NYK113.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.3).

GSW113.1scored, +0.8 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.0%54.0%+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)14.2%12.6%−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%23.8%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.210−0.9
Everything else+0.7

NYK113.9scored, +1.5 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%54.0%−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.6%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.5%23.8%+3.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2320.210+0.6
Everything else−0.0
Defensive rating, last 10GSW111.3NYK103.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.3).

GSW111.3allowed, −1.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.6%54.0%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.6%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.2%23.8%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2130.210−0.1
Everything else+1.3

NYK103.2allowed, −9.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.2%54.0%+5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.6%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.8%23.8%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.210+0.5
Everything else+1.3
Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 103.3 and NYK 98.5 → average 100.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingGSW53.9NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW53.9pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Stephen Curry26.134.07
Andrew Wiggins19.330.43
Donte DiVincenzo8.425.310

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-20 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-20 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysNYK2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Dec 18 against TOR.

NYK2days

Last played Dec 18 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 18@TOR126–11043-8118-3922-261712129.9113.497.0
Dec 16@PHI106–11839-9417-4311-131713103.9113.5103.0
Dec 14@IND119–12540-8614-3325-292312110.2114.7108.5
Dec 13@MIL111–12838-9520-5015-191812102.8118.5108.0
Dec 10BOS123–10747-9213-3916-201311119.4102.9103.5
Dec 7@UTA123–12445-9814-4219-251414118.3120.4103.5
Dec 5IND104–11238-9413-4415-191212104.0112.0100.0
Dec 3HOU120–10145-8525-525-10136125.0103.197.0
Dec 2CHI119–11142-8720-5015-23197109.2102.8108.5
Nov 29@DAL113–11642-8811-4318-231810108.7111.5104.0

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 18@IND109–10639-838-2623-301614111.2107.198.5
Dec 16@CHI114–9137-9217-4423-321015115.291.999.0
Dec 14@CHI128–12045-9118-3420-251515123.1115.494.2
Dec 11SAC112–9940-898-3524-271415107.797.1103.0
Dec 9@CHA121–10241-9313-3426-301116124.7103.098.0
Dec 7ATL113–8937-8317-3622-241413120.295.793.5
Dec 4CLE92–8135-865-2917-21201492.981.899.0
Dec 3DAL100–12135-7710-3120-2819799.0117.5102.0
Nov 30MIL103–10942-1006-3013-20719107.3114.795.5
Nov 29@DET140–11054-9616-3516-211417137.3107.8102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
70%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
NYK was the forecast favorite
30 pts
margin miss
forecast +8, actual +38 for NYK
1071st
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
26th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 0.36 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statGSWNYK
Final score94132
Field goals35–74 · 47.3%45–87 · 51.7%
Three-pointers12–35 · 34.3%17–40 · 42.5%
Free throws12–13 · 92.3%25–32 · 78.1%
Rebounds2947
Assists2327
Turnovers1911
Steals38
Blocks21

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+8+38+30
Total points224226+2
GSW points10894−14
NYK points116132+16

Recent form before this game

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Dec 18 at TOR W 126–110
Dec 16 at PHI L 106–118
Dec 14 at IND L 119–125
Dec 13 at MIL L 111–128
Dec 10 vs BOS W 123–107

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Dec 18 at IND W 109–106
Dec 16 at CHI W 114–91
Dec 14 at CHI W 128–120
Dec 11 vs SAC W 112–99
Dec 9 at CHA W 121–102

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 18 2022-23 NYK at GSW NYK 101 – 111 GSW
Feb 10 2021-22 NYK at GSW NYK 116 – 114 GSW
Dec 14 2021-22 GSW at NYK GSW 105 – 96 NYK