2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, January 25, 2026 · tip-off 5:30 PM ET
GSW 0–2@MIN 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSW Golden State Warriors | 116 | 111 | −5 |
| MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) | 122 | 85 | −37 |
Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | GSW | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1550 | 1594 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +114 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +2.7 | +4.9 |
| Games played this season | 46 | 45 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 122.0 | 119.6 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 114.6 | 113.6 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 101.9 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 37.1 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingGSW1550MIN1594
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
GSW1550
- Ended last season at 1597 → started this one at 1573
- First 36 games: −11.7
- Last 10 games: −11.1
- L@LAC102–103−3.6
- WMIL120–113+4.0
- WSAC137–103+6.3
- LATL111–124−19.3
- WPOR119–97+10.4
- WNYK126–113+8.8
- WCHA136–116+9.2
- WMIA135–112+9.8
- LTOR127–145−26.3
- L@DAL115–123−10.4
MIN1594
- Ended last season at 1690 → started this one at 1642
- First 35 games: −43.9
- Last 10 games: −4.6
- W@WAS141–115+8.2
- WMIA122–94+11.3
- WCLE131–122+5.6
- L@CLE134–146−11.8
- WSAS104–103+2.9
- W@MIL139–106+16.5
- L@HOU105–110−6.4
- L@SAS123–126−4.9
- L@UTA122–127−12.7
- LCHI115–120−13.3
Season scoring marginGSW+2.7MIN+4.9
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
GSW+2.7
Scores 116.8, allows 114.2 over 46 games: +2.7 a game.
MIN+4.9
Scores 120.0, allows 115.1 over 45 games: +4.9 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10GSW122.0MIN119.6
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
GSW122.0scored, +7.2 vs league
| Factor | GSW | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 59.0% | 54.5% | +6.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.5% | 12.2% | +2.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.157 | 0.213 | −1.6 | |
| Everything else | −0.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
MIN119.6scored, +4.8 vs league
| Factor | MIN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.4% | 54.5% | +5.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.5% | 12.2% | +1.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.178 | 0.213 | −1.0 | |
| Everything else | −1.1 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10GSW114.6MIN113.6
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
GSW114.6allowed, −0.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.3% | 54.5% | −2.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.7% | 12.2% | +2.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.182 | 0.213 | +0.9 | |
| Everything else | −0.1 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
MIN113.6allowed, −1.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.4% | 54.5% | −1.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.2% | +0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.204 | 0.213 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | +2.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 101.9
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
GSW 100.6 and MIN 103.2 → average 101.9 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.4)
Rotation points missingGSW37.1MIN0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
GSW37.1pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler III | 22.1 | 28.7 | 7 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 15.0 | 15.3 | 2 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-01-25 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
MIN0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-01-25 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
RestGSW3 daysMIN3 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
GSW3days
Last played Jan 22 against DAL.
MIN3days
Last played Jan 22 against CHI.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
GSW
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22 | @DAL | 115–123 | 43-96 | 15-46 | 14-18 | 10 | – | 106.5 | 113.9 | 108.0 |
| Jan 20 | TOR | 127–145 | 47-91 | 16-43 | 17-26 | 17 | – | 121.0 | 139.4 | 104.5 |
| Jan 19 | MIA | 135–112 | 49-95 | 24-51 | 13-17 | 13 | – | 126.2 | 104.7 | 107.0 |
| Jan 17 | CHA | 136–116 | 51-93 | 23-52 | 11-13 | 11 | – | 133.3 | 113.7 | 102.0 |
| Jan 15 | NYK | 126–113 | 48-89 | 20-45 | 10-13 | 12 | – | 134.0 | 120.2 | 94.0 |
| Jan 13 | POR | 119–97 | 42-89 | 23-57 | 12-13 | 14 | – | 116.7 | 95.1 | 102.0 |
| Jan 11 | ATL | 111–124 | 42-90 | 10-42 | 17-21 | 15 | – | 108.8 | 122.8 | 101.5 |
| Jan 9 | SAC | 137–103 | 52-95 | 19-45 | 14-14 | 10 | – | 145.7 | 110.8 | 93.5 |
| Jan 7 | MIL | 120–113 | 44-89 | 18-47 | 14-18 | 9 | – | 123.7 | 118.9 | 96.0 |
| Jan 5 | @LAC | 102–103 | 35-92 | 10-41 | 22-27 | 7 | – | 104.1 | 106.2 | 97.5 |
MIN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22 | CHI | 115–120 | 43-93 | 15-41 | 14-15 | 14 | – | 110.6 | 114.3 | 104.5 |
| Jan 20 | @UTA | 122–127 | 44-100 | 14-47 | 20-27 | 11 | – | 116.2 | 121.0 | 105.0 |
| Jan 17 | @SAS | 123–126 | 42-90 | 14-34 | 25-28 | 11 | – | 123.0 | 127.3 | 99.5 |
| Jan 16 | @HOU | 105–110 | 37-80 | 11-30 | 20-35 | 14 | – | 107.1 | 112.2 | 98.0 |
| Jan 13 | @MIL | 139–106 | 55-92 | 22-42 | 7-12 | 15 | – | 135.0 | 105.0 | 102.0 |
| Jan 11 | SAS | 104–103 | 39-90 | 12-39 | 14-25 | 9 | – | 105.1 | 103.0 | 99.5 |
| Jan 10 | @CLE | 134–146 | 51-89 | 16-32 | 16-20 | 15 | – | 130.1 | 141.7 | 103.0 |
| Jan 8 | CLE | 131–122 | 51-89 | 20-38 | 9-17 | 17 | – | 124.8 | 117.3 | 104.5 |
| Jan 6 | MIA | 122–94 | 45-98 | 14-39 | 18-23 | 12 | – | 109.9 | 84.7 | 111.0 |
| Jan 4 | @WAS | 141–115 | 55-98 | 11-37 | 20-27 | 14 | – | 134.3 | 109.5 | 105.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | GSW | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 111 | 85 |
| Field goals | 40–95 · 42.1% | 30–79 · 38.0% |
| Three-pointers | 16–51 · 31.4% | 13–38 · 34.2% |
| Free throws | 15–16 · 93.8% | 12–20 · 60.0% |
| Rebounds | 45 | 50 |
| Assists | 31 | 16 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 25 |
| Steals | 20 | 6 |
| Blocks | 5 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Minnesota Timberwolves
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (MIN) | +6 | −26 | −32 |
| Total points | 238 | 196 | −42 |
| GSW points | 116 | 111 | −5 |
| MIN points | 122 | 85 | −37 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 12 2025-26 | MIN at GSW | MIN 127 – 120 GSW |
| May 14 2024-25 | GSW at MIN | GSW 110 – 121 MIN |
| May 12 2024-25 | MIN at GSW | MIN 117 – 110 GSW |
| May 10 2024-25 | MIN at GSW | MIN 102 – 97 GSW |
| May 8 2024-25 | GSW at MIN | GSW 93 – 117 MIN |