2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns

Tuesday, October 25, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 0–0@PHX 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	107	105	−2
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	105	134	+29

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	PHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1641	1586
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+15
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+5.3	+6.2
Games played this season	3	3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.7	111.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.6	111.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1641PHX1586

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1641

Ended last season at 1699 → started this one at 1649
This season's 3 games: −8.3

WLAL123–109+3.4
LDEN123–128−13.3
WSAC130–125+1.6

PHX1586

Ended last season at 1599 → started this one at 1574
This season's 3 games: +11.9

WDAL107–105+3.9
L@POR111–113−8.4
W@LAC112–95+16.4

Season scoring marginGSW+5.3PHX+6.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+5.3

Scores 125.3, allows 120.7 over 3 games: +4.7 a game.

15% this season (+4.7) + 85% last season (+5.4) = +5.3

PHX+6.2

Scores 110.0, allows 104.3 over 3 games: +5.7 a game.

15% this season (+5.7) + 85% last season (+6.3) = +6.2

Offensive rating, last 10GSW112.7PHX111.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

GSW112.7scored, +1.3 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	53.3%	+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	11.8%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.2%	23.0%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.175	0.196	−0.6
Everything else			+0.6

PHX111.6scored, +0.2 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	53.3%	+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.5%	11.8%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	23.0%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.178	0.196	−0.5
Everything else			+1.4

Defensive rating, last 10GSW108.6PHX111.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

GSW108.6allowed, −2.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.0%	53.3%	+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.4%	11.8%	+3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.4%	23.0%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.197	0.196	−0.0
Everything else			−1.1

PHX111.2allowed, −0.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.4%	53.3%	−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	11.8%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.1%	23.0%	+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.233	0.196	−1.1
Everything else			+1.9

Pace, last 10average 97.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 99.6 and PHX 94.5 → average 97.1 (league 2021-22: 98.6)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0PHX0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-25 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysPHX2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 23 against SAC.

PHX2days

Last played Oct 23 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 23	SAC	130–125	45-87	14-33	26-36	13	6	117.1	113.6	110.5
Oct 21	DEN	123–128	42-88	15-44	24-27	18	7	113.9	120.8	107.0
Oct 18	LAL	123–109	45-99	16-45	17-23	18	11	107.0	97.3	113.5
Jun 16	@BOS	103–90	38-92	19-46	8-8	15	15	109.6	96.8	93.5
Jun 13	BOS	104–94	41-88	9-40	13-15	6	4	107.2	95.9	97.5
Jun 10	@BOS	107–97	40-91	15-43	12-15	16	16	111.5	101.0	96.0
Jun 8	@BOS	100–116	36-78	15-40	13-15	16	6	106.4	122.1	94.5
Jun 5	BOS	107–88	39-86	15-37	14-20	12	6	110.3	89.8	97.5
Jun 2	BOS	108–120	39-88	19-45	11-15	14	12	114.9	129.0	93.5
May 26	DAL	120–110	45-88	14-36	16-16	10	14	129.0	119.6	92.5

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 23	@LAC	112–95	43-93	15-42	11-12	12	13	114.3	97.9	97.5
Oct 21	@POR	111–113	43-94	10-27	15-21	16	9	102.8	103.7	98.3
Oct 19	DAL	107–105	40-85	8-22	19-22	12	8	113.8	110.5	94.5
May 15	DAL	90–123	33-87	12-34	12-18	12	15	97.8	132.3	92.5
May 12	@DAL	86–113	31-78	6-18	18-21	22	13	91.5	120.2	94.0
May 10	DAL	110–80	43-87	12-32	12-16	12	12	117.0	85.1	94.0
May 8	@DAL	101–111	39-84	9-25	14-18	17	12	108.6	116.8	94.0
May 6	@DAL	94–103	34-76	13-28	13-15	17	9	105.6	114.4	89.5
May 4	DAL	129–109	49-76	13-25	18-21	16	4	134.4	111.2	97.0
May 2	DAL	121–114	46-91	11-28	18-18	9	13	130.1	120.0	94.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

45%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHX, the winner

the forecast favored GSW

31 pts

margin miss

forecast −2, actual +29 for PHX

343rd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

22nd

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.80 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	PHX
Final score	105	134
Field goals	41–91 · 45.1%	47–92 · 51.1%
Three-pointers	10–35 · 28.6%	12–29 · 41.4%
Free throws	13–17 · 76.5%	28–34 · 82.4%
Rebounds	40	48
Assists	28	31
Turnovers	13	13
Steals	7	8
Blocks	7	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)	−2	+29	+31
Total points	212	239	+27
GSW points	107	105	−2
PHX points	105	134	+29

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