2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz

Friday, October 25, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 0–0@UTA 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	118	127	+9
UTA Utah Jazz (home)	111	86	−25

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 66% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	UTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1602	1390
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−142
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+4.3	−4.8
Games played this season	1	1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	118.2	112.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.8	121.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1602UTA1390

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1602

Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
This season's 1 game: +11.8

W@POR140–104+11.8

UTA1390

Ended last season at 1363 → started this one at 1397
This season's 1 game: −6.8

LMEM124–126−6.8

Season scoring marginGSW+4.3UTA−4.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+4.3

Scores 140.0, allows 104.0 over 1 game: +36.0 a game.

5% this season (+36.0) + 95% last season (+2.6) = +4.3

UTA−4.8

Scores 124.0, allows 126.0 over 1 game: −2.0 a game.

5% this season (−2.0) + 95% last season (−4.9) = −4.8

Offensive rating, last 10GSW118.2UTA112.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

GSW118.2scored, +3.8 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.4%	54.7%	+7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	11.5%	−3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.0%	24.1%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.170	0.194	−0.7
Everything else			−1.4

UTA112.4scored, −2.1 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.5%	54.7%	−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	11.5%	−3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.9%	24.1%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.194	+1.0
Everything else			+2.5

Defensive rating, last 10GSW108.8UTA121.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

GSW108.8allowed, −5.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.9%	54.7%	+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	11.5%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.4%	24.1%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.179	0.194	+0.4
Everything else			−0.1

UTA121.6allowed, +7.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.0%	54.7%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	11.5%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.8%	24.1%	−3.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.174	0.194	+0.6
Everything else			+0.7

Pace, last 10average 99.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 100.0 and UTA 98.1 → average 99.1 (league 2023-24: 98.8)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0UTA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-10-25 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

UTA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-10-25 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysUTA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 23 against POR.

UTA2days

Last played Oct 23 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 23	@POR	140–104	48-93	20-48	24-30	17	15	128.4	96.3	108.5
Apr 14	UTA	123–116	45-94	14-43	19-23	9	12	123.0	116.0	100.0
Apr 12	NOP	109–114	40-86	13-34	16-21	16	11	107.9	111.8	101.5
Apr 11	@POR	100–92	36-77	12-35	16-20	16	10	108.7	101.1	91.5
Apr 9	@LAL	134–120	47-80	26-41	14-21	15	4	132.7	118.8	101.0
Apr 7	UTA	118–110	49-92	14-35	6-6	13	11	122.9	114.6	96.0
Apr 5	@DAL	106–108	41-93	12-35	12-18	15	11	102.9	105.9	102.5
Apr 4	@HOU	133–110	47-80	17-35	22-25	18	12	134.3	110.0	99.5
Apr 2	DAL	104–100	41-90	15-32	7-7	17	11	103.0	99.0	101.0
Mar 31	@SAS	117–113	45-92	16-39	11-13	15	12	118.2	114.1	99.0

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 23	MEM	124–126	40-85	10-26	34-45	14	14	119.2	120.0	104.5
Apr 14	@GSW	116–123	46-89	14-34	10-16	19	14	116.0	123.0	100.0
Apr 12	@LAC	110–109	41-88	6-35	22-25	16	14	112.2	112.4	97.5
Apr 11	HOU	124–121	44-87	14-39	22-27	14	15	129.2	126.0	96.0
Apr 9	DEN	95–111	36-91	10-31	13-13	14	11	100.0	116.8	95.0
Apr 7	@GSW	110–118	39-83	15-35	17-21	11	6	114.6	122.9	96.0
Apr 5	@LAC	102–131	35-91	9-30	23-29	15	6	99.0	126.0	103.5
Apr 2	CLE	113–129	41-85	16-37	15-18	19	4	113.0	129.0	100.0
Mar 31	@SAC	106–127	34-83	16-41	22-28	12	9	114.0	135.1	93.5
Mar 29	HOU	100–101	37-80	8-31	18-19	20	10	106.4	105.2	95.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

66%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

GSW was the forecast favorite

34 pts

margin miss

forecast −7, actual −41 for UTA

847th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

23rd

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.41 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	UTA
Final score	127	86
Field goals	51–106 · 48.1%	29–92 · 31.5%
Three-pointers	20–50 · 40.0%	9–42 · 21.4%
Free throws	5–6 · 83.3%	19–26 · 73.1%
Rebounds	60	45
Assists	35	18
Turnovers	13	22
Steals	15	8
Blocks	6	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)	−7	−41	−34
Total points	229	213	−16
GSW points	118	127	+9
UTA points	111	86	−25

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
GSW	32	24	38	33	–	127
UTA	24	18	28	16	–	86

Recent form before this game