2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Friday, January 20, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 1–3@CLE 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	111	120	+9
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home)	119	114	−5

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	CLE
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1525	1568
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+113
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.4	+4.5
Games played this season	45	46
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.1	114.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.8	112.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	77.3	28.1
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1525CLE1568

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1525

Ended last season at 1699 → started this one at 1649
First 35 games: −94.0
Last 10 games: −29.9

WUTA112–107+4.4
WPOR118–112+3.6
WATL143–141+2.4
LDET119–122−11.8
LORL101–115−25.3
LPHX113–125−16.3
W@SAS144–113+16.6
L@CHI118–132−11.8
W@WAS127–118+10.6
L@BOS118–121−2.3

CLE1568

Ended last season at 1495 → started this one at 1496
First 36 games: +56.5
Last 10 games: +15.2

W@CHI103–102+3.9
WCHI145–134+5.6
WPHX90–88+3.1
L@DEN108–121−9.0
W@PHX112–98+14.0
L@UTA114–116−5.0
W@POR119–113+6.0
L@MIN102–110−9.7
WNOP113–103+8.4
L@MEM114–115−2.1

Season scoring marginGSW−0.4CLE+4.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW−0.4

Scores 117.6, allows 118.0 over 45 games: −0.4 a game.

CLE+4.5

Scores 111.6, allows 107.1 over 46 games: +4.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10GSW113.1CLE114.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.3).

GSW113.1scored, −0.2 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	54.3%	+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.3%	−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.0%	23.8%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.189	0.213	−0.7
Everything else			−0.5

CLE114.4scored, +1.1 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.3%	+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.3%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.5%	23.8%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.234	0.213	+0.6
Everything else			−1.5

Defensive rating, last 10GSW112.8CLE112.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.3).

GSW112.8allowed, −0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.5%	54.3%	+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.3%	−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.4%	23.8%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.219	0.213	−0.2
Everything else			+0.8

CLE112.5allowed, −0.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	54.3%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.3%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.0%	23.8%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.220	0.213	−0.2
Everything else			−0.3

Pace, last 10average 100.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 104.0 and CLE 96.7 → average 100.4 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingGSW77.3CLE28.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW77.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Klay Thompson	30.0	34.7	7
Stephen Curry	25.8	34.0	5
Andrew Wiggins	13.8	29.3	6
Draymond Green	7.7	33.6	10

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-20 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

CLE28.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Donovan Mitchell	28.1	35.4	8

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-20 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestGSW1 daysCLE2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 19 against BOS.

CLE2days

Last played Jan 18 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 19	@BOS	118–121	40-100	18-52	20-23	16	8	100.9	104.3	105.5
Jan 16	@WAS	127–118	45-91	18-44	19-21	12	9	123.3	114.6	103.0
Jan 15	@CHI	118–132	41-83	21-51	15-22	23	7	110.3	123.4	107.0
Jan 13	@SAS	144–113	55-101	18-48	16-20	12	12	130.9	101.8	110.5
Jan 10	PHX	113–125	37-96	18-48	21-27	15	16	105.6	115.7	107.5
Jan 7	ORL	101–115	33-88	18-58	17-21	16	11	100.0	115.0	100.5
Jan 4	DET	119–122	45-87	15-40	14-15	14	9	119.0	124.5	99.0
Jan 2	ATL	143–141	54-121	19-59	16-24	19	23	112.6	109.3	105.9
Dec 30	POR	118–112	42-91	17-43	17-21	12	17	120.4	115.5	97.5
Dec 28	UTA	112–107	37-87	16-45	22-27	12	10	107.7	103.9	103.5

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 18	@MEM	114–115	42-82	16-35	14-21	16	11	118.8	118.6	96.5
Jan 16	NOP	113–103	39-80	9-28	26-33	15	13	117.7	106.2	96.5
Jan 14	@MIN	102–110	37-76	8-28	20-23	18	8	106.3	113.4	96.5
Jan 12	@POR	119–113	44-89	7-22	24-31	11	12	116.7	110.8	102.0
Jan 10	@UTA	114–116	42-90	10-37	20-24	5	7	114.0	117.2	99.5
Jan 8	@PHX	112–98	45-78	11-29	11-17	14	3	115.5	103.2	96.0
Jan 6	@DEN	108–121	40-88	10-26	18-32	6	18	120.0	136.0	89.5
Jan 4	PHX	90–88	30-77	11-36	19-23	14	7	95.7	93.6	94.0
Jan 2	CHI	145–134	48-92	16-46	33-45	10	13	134.3	122.9	98.3
Dec 31	@CHI	103–102	39-85	13-38	12-19	20	15	105.1	103.0	98.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

the forecast favored CLE

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −6 for CLE

69th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

338th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	CLE
Final score	120	114
Field goals	42–86 · 48.8%	42–84 · 50.0%
Three-pointers	23–43 · 53.5%	14–33 · 42.4%
Free throws	13–19 · 68.4%	16–19 · 84.2%
Rebounds	45	35
Assists	25	24
Turnovers	17	15
Steals	9	7
Blocks	4	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)	+8	−6	−14
Total points	230	234	+4
GSW points	111	120	+9
CLE points	119	114	−5

Recent form before this game