The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 6

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors

Wednesday, March 6, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MIL 2–1@GSW 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIL 41 percent, GSW 59 percent. MIL Bucks 41% proj. 108 · final 90 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 59% proj. 110 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIL Milwaukee Bucks 108 90 −18
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 110 125 +15

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMILGSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15941583
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +59
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.5+1.4
Games played this season 6260
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.3113.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 103.2112.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIL1594GSW1583

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIL1594

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1556 → started this one at 1542
  2. First 52 games: +9.6
  3. Last 10 games: +42.3
  • WCHA120–84+3.9
  • WDEN112–95+13.5
  • LMIA97–123−30.6
  • L@MEM110–113−6.9
  • W@MIN112–107+13.0
  • W@PHI119–98+17.3
  • WCHA123–85+6.2
  • W@CHA111–99+5.4
  • W@CHI113–97+13.6
  • WLAC113–106+6.9

GSW1583

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1581 → started this one at 1560
  2. First 50 games: −2.7
  3. Last 10 games: +25.3
  • W@UTA129–107+19.7
  • LLAC125–130−7.3
  • W@UTA140–137+5.3
  • WLAL128–110+9.4
  • WCHA97–84+2.4
  • LDEN103–119−17.7
  • W@WAS123–112+4.3
  • W@NYK110–99+13.2
  • W@TOR120–105+9.2
  • L@BOS88–140−13.2
Season scoring marginMIL+4.5GSW+1.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIL+4.5

Scores 121.4, allows 116.9 over 62 games: +4.5 a game.

GSW+1.4

Scores 118.6, allows 117.2 over 60 games: +1.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MIL116.3GSW113.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

MIL116.3scored, +1.4 vs league

FactorMILLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.2%54.8%+2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%11.5%+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.4%24.2%−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.199−0.0
Everything else−0.3

GSW113.7scored, −1.3 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.8%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%11.5%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.4%24.2%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1380.199−1.8
Everything else+1.0
Defensive rating, last 10MIL103.2GSW112.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

MIL103.2allowed, −11.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.9%54.8%+7.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%11.5%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.1%24.2%+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1620.199+1.1
Everything else+0.3

GSW112.1allowed, −2.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.8%+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%11.5%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%24.2%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1780.199+0.6
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 99.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIL 97.4 and GSW 102.0 → average 99.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingMIL0.0GSW0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-06 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-06 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMIL2 daysGSW3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIL2days

Last played Mar 4 against LAC.

GSW3days

Last played Mar 3 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 4LAC113–10637-7815-3824-28112114.1108.298.5
Mar 1@CHI113–9737-8615-4624-32711118.9103.294.5
Feb 29@CHA111–9939-8616-3917-2078118.1105.394.0
Feb 27CHA123–8546-8916-4015-18911130.988.595.0
Feb 25@PHI119–9843-7918-3715-18187125.3101.096.0
Feb 23@MIN112–10741-8713-3717-251011114.3109.298.0
Feb 15@MEM110–11342-9011-4415-201311108.9113.0100.5
Feb 13MIA97–12337-8313-3910-1118596.0121.8101.0
Feb 12DEN112–9542-8416-3412-18129115.596.997.5
Feb 9CHA120–8441-9418-5220-24510121.284.899.0

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 3@BOS88–14036-927-419-13171186.3137.3102.0
Mar 1@TOR120–10544-9818-4414-181415114.3101.0104.5
Feb 29@NYK110–9944-9814-448-161116111.1101.098.5
Feb 27@WAS123–11247-9421-468-11189116.0107.7105.0
Feb 25DEN103–11935-8111-3422-291711104.0121.498.5
Feb 23CHA97–8438-8913-428-10211398.084.099.5
Feb 22LAL128–11050-10716-4112-14915128.0108.9100.5
Feb 15@UTA140–13749-9220-4222-281313135.9131.7103.5
Feb 14LAC125–13047-10318-4713-18913120.2126.2103.5
Feb 12@UTA129–10748-10020-4413-171312122.9101.9105.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner
GSW was the forecast favorite
33 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +35 for GSW
750th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
38th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.53 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMILGSW
Final score90125
Field goals34–89 · 38.2%51–91 · 56.0%
Three-pointers11–39 · 28.2%19–39 · 48.7%
Free throws11–15 · 73.3%4–7 · 57.1%
Rebounds3650
Assists1937
Turnovers1514
Steals810
Blocks513

How the model does with these teams over time: Milwaukee Bucks · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)+2+35+33
Total points218215−3
MIL points10890−18
GSW points110125+15

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MIL3226239–90
GSW40381532–125

Recent form before this game

Milwaukee Bucks

DateOpponentResult
Mar 4 vs LAC W 113–106
Mar 1 at CHI W 113–97
Feb 29 at CHA W 111–99
Feb 27 vs CHA W 123–85
Feb 25 at PHI W 119–98

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Mar 3 at BOS L 88–140
Mar 1 at TOR W 120–105
Feb 29 at NYK W 110–99
Feb 27 at WAS W 123–112
Feb 25 vs DEN L 103–119

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 13 2023-24 GSW at MIL GSW 118 – 129 MIL
Mar 11 2022-23 MIL at GSW MIL 116 – 125 GSW
Dec 13 2022-23 GSW at MIL GSW 111 – 128 MIL
Mar 12 2021-22 MIL at GSW MIL 109 – 122 GSW
Jan 13 2021-22 GSW at MIL GSW 99 – 118 MIL