The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 23

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

Friday, October 23, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

MEM 1–0@GSW 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 39 percent, GSW 61 percent. MEM Grizzlies 39% proj. 117 · final 111 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 61% proj. 121 · final 108
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 117 111 −6
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 121 108 −13

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 62% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans GSW

  • Home court+2.1 GSWWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+2.3 GSWElo GSW 1434, MEM 1342; season margin GSW −1.6, MEM −4.8.

Together: GSW by 4, a 62% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

GSW is 0–1, losing by 22 a game on average (scoring 105, allowing 127). Last season they were a −1 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 22% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 60% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 9 points per 100 possessions.

MEM is 1–0, winning by 20 a game on average (scoring 123, allowing 103). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 95% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 14% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense lets opponents rebound 50% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 11 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −9, forcing turnovers +1.3.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors GSW; left favors MEM.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +2.3, No playoff context +0.3, Recent form −0.2, Player availability −0.1, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +4.3 for GSW. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +2.3 No playoff context +0.3 Recent form −0.2 Player availability −0.1 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +4.3
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +4.3. The 62% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMEMGSWEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13421434 +0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +162 +1.9
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −4.8−1.6 +0.5
Games played this season 11 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.2113.3 +0.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 125.8122.1 −1.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.9 +0.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 −0.1
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueGSW ptsMEM ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)122.1+0.51+2.48−1.97
Elo gap incl. home court161.8+0.98−0.88+1.86
Season scoring margin (away)-4.8+0.73−0.22+0.95
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.2−0.03−0.92+0.89
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.36+0.53−0.88
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)125.8+0.91+0.14+0.77
Games played (away)1.0+0.16+0.93−0.77
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.65−0.12+0.76
Elo rating (away)1342.4+0.36−0.32+0.68
Season scoring margin (home)-1.6−0.34+0.15−0.49
Combined pace, last 10100.9+2.91+2.49+0.42
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.3−0.39−0.06−0.33
Home series wins0.0+0.26+0.03+0.23
Games played (home)1.0+0.65+0.58+0.07
Elo rating (home)1434.2−0.15−0.12−0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.03−0.00+0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.03
Rest days (home)2.0−0.01+0.02−0.02
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1342GSW14342.5 pts toward GSW

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1342

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
  2. This season's 1 game: +12.8
  • WUTA123–103+12.8

GSW1434

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1422 → started this one at 1442
  2. This season's 1 game: −7.5
  • L@LAL105–127−7.5
Season scoring marginMEM−4.8GSW−1.60.2 pts toward MEM

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−4.8

Scores 123.0, allows 103.0 over 1 game: +20.0 a game.

5% this season (+20.0) + 95% last season (−6.1) = −4.8

GSW−1.6

Scores 105.0, allows 127.0 over 1 game: −22.0 a game.

5% this season (−22.0) + 95% last season (−0.6) = −1.6

Offensive rating, last 10MEM109.2GSW113.30.6 pts toward GSW

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM109.2scored, −5.4 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.5%−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)14.3%26.1%−5.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1790.210−0.9
Everything else+3.4

GSW113.3scored, −1.3 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.5%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.8%26.1%−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.210+0.3
Everything else+1.4
Defensive rating, last 10MEM125.8GSW122.11.2 pts toward MEM

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM125.8allowed, +11.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.6%54.5%−9.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)50.3%26.1%−10.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2260.210−0.5
Everything else+8.0

GSW122.1allowed, +7.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.2%54.5%−8.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.6%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.210+0.7
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 100.90.4 pts toward GSW

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 104.0 and GSW 97.8 → average 100.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0GSW0.00.1 pts toward MEM

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-23 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysGSW2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Oct 21 against UTA.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 21 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21UTA123–10344-9313-3422-281315118.399.0104.0
Apr 12@HOU101–13239-9513-4910-1013398.1128.2103.0
Apr 10@UTA101–14741-10911-528-919483.5121.5121.0
Apr 8@DEN119–13642-9219-5016-2363119.0136.0100.0
Apr 6CLE126–14245-9429-597-10133122.3137.9103.0
Apr 5@MIL115–13138-9217-4622-28149112.7129.7101.5
Apr 3TOR96–12834-8511-4217-2620893.2125.5102.5
Apr 1NYK119–13039-7616-3625-30133126.6136.894.5
Mar 30PHX105–13138-7511-3018-20224106.1132.399.0
Mar 28CHI125–12450-10712-3813-17148112.6110.7111.5

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 21@LAL105–12738-928-3621-271515102.9124.5102.0
Apr 12@LAC110–11536-8611-3927-32913117.0121.194.5
Apr 10@SAC118–12439-8114-3626-28165115.7121.6102.0
Apr 9LAL103–11941-819-3012-12199112.0129.392.0
Apr 7SAC110–10537-8217-3819-241710114.6111.795.0
Apr 5HOU116–11742-8414-4018-20106123.4124.594.0
Apr 2CLE111–11841-9412-4417-201212109.9116.8101.0
Apr 1SAS113–12742-8614-3515-18132111.9125.7101.0
Mar 29@DEN93–11635-8314-429-11137100.0124.793.0
Mar 27WAS131–12644-8519-4424-31129126.0121.2104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
39%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
the forecast favored GSW
7 pts
margin miss
forecast +4, actual −3 for GSW
19th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
88th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMGSW
Final score111108
Field goals40–86 · 46.5%34–83 · 41.0%
Three-pointers15–39 · 38.5%14–41 · 34.1%
Free throws16–22 · 72.7%26–29 · 89.7%
Rebounds4741
Assists2723
Turnovers2519
Steals712
Blocks76

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)+4−3−7
Total points238219−19
MEM points117111−6
GSW points121108−13

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 vs UTA W 123–103
Apr 12 at HOU L 101–132
Apr 10 at UTA L 101–147
Apr 8 at DEN L 119–136
Apr 6 vs CLE L 126–142

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 21 at LAL L 105–127
Apr 12 at LAC L 110–115
Apr 10 at SAC L 118–124
Apr 9 vs LAL L 103–119
Apr 7 vs SAC W 110–105

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 25 2025-26 GSW at MEM GSW 133 – 112 MEM
Feb 9 2025-26 MEM at GSW MEM 113 – 114 GSW
Oct 27 2025-26 MEM at GSW MEM 118 – 131 GSW
Apr 1 2024-25 GSW at MEM GSW 134 – 125 MEM
Jan 4 2024-25 MEM at GSW MEM 113 – 121 GSW