2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns

Tuesday, April 8, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 4–5@PHX 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	117	133	+16
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	111	95	−16

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	PHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1601	1446
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−85
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.9	−2.6
Games played this season	78	78
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	116.4	117.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	111.5	124.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	26.3
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1601PHX1446

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1601

Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
First 68 games: −3.8
Last 10 games: +14.4

WMIL104–93+7.3
WTOR117–114+1.6
L@ATL115–124−12.5
L@MIA86–112−28.0
W@NOP111–95+8.0
W@SAS148–106+22.6
W@MEM134–125+10.5
W@LAL123–116+8.9
WDEN118–104+8.7
LHOU96–106−12.7

PHX1446

Ended last season at 1587 → started this one at 1565
First 68 games: −108.9
Last 10 games: −10.4

WTOR129–89+17.1
WCHI127–121+5.1
WCLE123–112+18.4
WMIL108–106+5.2
LBOS102–132−12.1
L@MIN109–124−5.6
LHOU109–148−23.5
L@MIL123–133−5.7
L@BOS103–123−3.8
L@NYK98–112−5.5

Season scoring marginGSW+2.9PHX−2.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+2.9

Scores 113.7, allows 110.8 over 78 games: +2.9 a game.

PHX−2.6

Scores 114.0, allows 116.6 over 78 games: −2.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10GSW116.4PHX117.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

GSW116.4scored, +2.7 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	54.4%	+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.0%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.2%	25.2%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.217	0.193	+0.7
Everything else			+0.4

PHX117.5scored, +3.8 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.4%	+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	12.0%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.9%	25.2%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.157	0.193	−1.0
Everything else			+1.4

Defensive rating, last 10GSW111.5PHX124.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

GSW111.5allowed, −2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.4%	54.4%	−4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.9%	12.0%	+4.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.0%	25.2%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.173	0.193	+0.6
Everything else			+1.1

PHX124.4allowed, +10.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.5%	54.4%	−9.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.0%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.0%	25.2%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.185	0.193	+0.2
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 97.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 98.5 and PHX 96.3 → average 97.4 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0PHX26.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-08 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

PHX26.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kevin Durant	26.3	32.2	7

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-08 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysPHX2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Apr 6 against HOU.

PHX2days

Last played Apr 6 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 6	HOU	96–106	37-89	16-43	6-11	20	15	98.0	108.2	98.0
Apr 4	DEN	118–104	43-88	16-38	16-18	13	11	120.4	107.2	97.5
Apr 3	@LAL	123–116	39-82	19-42	26-31	13	14	133.7	126.1	92.0
Apr 1	@MEM	134–125	42-99	22-56	28-28	11	15	126.4	116.8	106.5
Mar 30	@SAS	148–106	56-97	21-44	15-19	12	10	141.0	101.0	105.0
Mar 28	@NOP	111–95	38-92	13-55	22-29	10	18	116.8	100.0	95.0
Mar 25	@MIA	86–112	33-83	9-38	11-16	12	14	94.5	124.4	90.5
Mar 22	@ATL	115–124	39-84	16-38	21-26	9	6	113.9	124.0	100.5
Mar 20	TOR	117–114	38-90	19-47	22-28	14	11	111.4	110.7	104.0
Mar 18	MIL	104–93	32-77	17-44	23-26	18	9	108.3	96.9	96.0

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 6	@NYK	98–112	39-92	4-34	16-19	12	15	104.3	117.9	94.5
Apr 4	@BOS	103–123	41-93	12-37	9-11	6	10	110.8	130.9	93.5
Apr 1	@MIL	123–133	44-92	18-45	17-21	13	15	128.1	135.7	97.0
Mar 30	HOU	109–148	42-87	10-32	15-17	19	10	103.8	143.7	104.0
Mar 28	@MIN	109–124	41-79	18-37	9-13	16	8	116.0	130.5	94.5
Mar 26	BOS	102–132	36-87	13-41	17-21	13	11	106.3	137.5	96.0
Mar 24	MIL	108–106	39-82	14-36	16-18	16	14	117.4	116.5	91.5
Mar 21	CLE	123–112	48-92	19-42	8-8	13	12	128.1	116.7	96.0
Mar 19	CHI	127–121	47-96	15-40	18-20	11	13	125.7	121.0	100.5
Mar 17	TOR	129–89	47-92	20-39	15-15	10	12	134.4	93.7	95.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

64%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

GSW was the forecast favorite

32 pts

margin miss

forecast −6, actual −38 for PHX

773rd

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

40th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.45 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	PHX
Final score	133	95
Field goals	45–93 · 48.4%	35–88 · 39.8%
Three-pointers	15–40 · 37.5%	12–43 · 27.9%
Free throws	28–34 · 82.4%	13–15 · 86.7%
Rebounds	57	41
Assists	31	22
Turnovers	15	19
Steals	14	12
Blocks	3	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)	−6	−38	−32
Total points	228	228	±0
GSW points	117	133	+16
PHX points	111	95	−16

Recent form before this game