The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 27

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors

Sunday, October 27, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

LAC 0–0@GSW 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAC 29 percent, GSW 71 percent. LAC Clippers 29% proj. 108 · final 112 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 71% proj. 116 · final 104
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers 108 112 +4
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 116 104 −12

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputLACGSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15121617
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +175
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.4+6.2
Games played this season 22
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.2118.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.6105.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 12
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1512GSW1617

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1512

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1508 → started this one at 1506
  2. This season's 2 games: +5.9
  • LPHX113–116−5.8
  • W@DEN109–104+11.7

GSW1617

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
  2. This season's 2 games: +27.0
  • W@POR140–104+11.8
  • W@UTA127–86+15.2
Season scoring marginLAC+2.4GSW+6.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+2.4

Scores 111.0, allows 110.0 over 2 games: +1.0 a game.

10% this season (+1.0) + 90% last season (+2.6) = +2.4

GSW+6.2

Scores 133.5, allows 95.0 over 2 games: +38.5 a game.

10% this season (+38.5) + 90% last season (+2.6) = +6.2

Offensive rating, last 10LAC108.2GSW118.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

LAC108.2scored, −6.3 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.7%−6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%11.5%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.7%24.1%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.194+0.1
Everything else−0.5

GSW118.7scored, +4.3 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.4%54.7%+7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%11.5%−2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.7%24.1%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1620.194−0.9
Everything else−1.3
Defensive rating, last 10LAC112.6GSW105.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

LAC112.6allowed, −1.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.7%+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%11.5%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.1%24.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2250.194−0.9
Everything else+1.7

GSW105.6allowed, −8.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.1%54.7%+6.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%11.5%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.5%24.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.194+0.3
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 98.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 95.5 and GSW 100.5 → average 98.0 (league 2023-24: 98.8)

Rotation points missingLAC0.0GSW0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-10-27 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-10-27 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestLAC1 daysGSW2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 26 against DEN.

GSW2days

Last played Oct 25 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26@DEN109–10440-8212-3317-211610114.7107.296.0
Oct 23PHX113–11642-928-2921-302113100.0102.7102.3
May 3@DAL101–11434-828-3125-32916112.2126.790.0
May 1DAL93–12333-879-3518-21131498.9130.994.0
Apr 28@DAL116–11143-8018-2912-18125126.1116.893.5
Apr 26@DAL90–10132-7010-2916-20198101.1112.289.5
Apr 23DAL93–9632-878-3021-26814101.1104.392.0
Apr 21DAL109–9740-8718-3611-131210117.2104.393.0
Apr 14HOU105–11641-1048-3715-17121698.1108.4107.0
Apr 12UTA109–11043-9610-3913-191320112.4112.297.5

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 25@UTA127–8651-10620-505-61319123.382.7103.5
Oct 23@POR140–10448-9320-4824-301715128.496.3108.5
Apr 14UTA123–11645-9414-4319-23912123.0116.0100.0
Apr 12NOP109–11440-8613-3416-211611107.9111.8101.5
Apr 11@POR100–9236-7712-3516-201610108.7101.191.5
Apr 9@LAL134–12047-8026-4114-21154132.7118.8101.0
Apr 7UTA118–11049-9214-356-61311122.9114.696.0
Apr 5@DAL106–10841-9312-3512-181511102.9105.9102.5
Apr 4@HOU133–11047-8017-3522-251812134.3110.099.5
Apr 2DAL104–10041-9015-327-71711103.099.0101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
29%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAC, the winner
the forecast favored GSW
16 pts
margin miss
forecast +8, actual −8 for GSW
57th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
293rd
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.24 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLACGSW
Final score112104
Field goals42–90 · 46.7%38–88 · 43.2%
Three-pointers10–32 · 31.3%14–43 · 32.6%
Free throws18–23 · 78.3%14–22 · 63.6%
Rebounds4847
Assists2719
Turnovers1821
Steals1110
Blocks25

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)+8−8−16
Total points224216−8
LAC points108112+4
GSW points116104−12

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
LAC34252726–112
GSW34202525–104

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 at DEN W 109–104
Oct 23 vs PHX L 113–116
May 3 at DAL L 101–114
May 1 vs DAL L 93–123
Apr 28 at DAL W 116–111

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Oct 25 at UTA W 127–86
Oct 23 at POR W 140–104
Apr 14 vs UTA W 123–116
Apr 12 vs NOP L 109–114
Apr 11 at POR W 100–92

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 14 2023-24 LAC at GSW LAC 130 – 125 GSW
Dec 14 2023-24 GSW at LAC GSW 113 – 121 LAC
Dec 2 2023-24 GSW at LAC GSW 112 – 113 LAC
Nov 30 2023-24 LAC at GSW LAC 114 – 120 GSW
Mar 15 2022-23 GSW at LAC GSW 126 – 134 LAC